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This article heavily relies on a Briefing paper prepared by the author for presentation at the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament for the quarterly dialogue with the President of the European Central Bank, 1.12.2009, Brussels. See http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/divers/join/2009/429982/IPOL-ECON_DV(2009)429982_EN.pdf). I am grateful to to Leszek Balcerowicz, Christian Dreger, Horst Gischer, Daniel Gros and Arttu Makipaa for valuable comments.
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