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The Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology Section A
Human Experimental Psychology
Volume 51, 1998 - Issue 3
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Original Articles

Conditional Probabilities, Potential Surprise, and the Conjunction Fallacy

John E. Fisk Nick Pidgeon
Pages 655-681 | Published online: 22 Oct 2010

Citations (12)

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Read on this site (2)

John E. Fisk, Dean A. Marshall, Paul Rogers & Rosemary Stock. (2023) An evaluation of the role of inductive confirmation in relation to the conjunction fallacy. Journal of Cognitive Psychology 35:4, pages 422-440.
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Aimée Kay Crisp & Aidan Feeney. (2009) Causal conjunction fallacies: The roles of causal strength and mental resources. The Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology 62:12, pages 2320-2337.
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Articles from other publishers (10)

Edward L. Munnich, Meadhbh I. Foster & Mark T. Keane. (2019) Editors’ Introduction and Review: An Appraisal of Surprise: Tracing the Threads That Stitch It Together. Topics in Cognitive Science 11:1, pages 37-49.
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Phil Maguire, Philippe Moser, Rebecca Maguire & Mark T. Keane. (2018) Why the Conjunction Effect Is Rarely a Fallacy: How Learning Influences Uncertainty and the Conjunction Rule. Frontiers in Psychology 9.
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Fintan Costello, Paul Watts & Christopher Fisher. (2018) Surprising rationality in probability judgment: Assessing two competing models. Cognition 170, pages 280-297.
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Paul Rogers, John E. Fisk & Emma Lowrie. (2017) Paranormal belief and errors of probabilistic reasoning: The role of constituent conditional relatedness in believers' susceptibility to the conjunction fallacy. Consciousness and Cognition 56, pages 13-29.
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Toby Prike, Michelle M. Arnold & Paul Williamson. (2017) Psychics, aliens, or experience? Using the Anomalistic Belief Scale to examine the relationship between type of belief and probabilistic reasoning. Consciousness and Cognition 53, pages 151-164.
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Fintan Costello & Paul Watts. (2017) Explaining High Conjunction Fallacy Rates: The Probability Theory Plus Noise Account. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 30:2, pages 304-321.
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Andreas Jarvstad & Ulrike Hahn. (2011) Source Reliability and the Conjunction Fallacy. Cognitive Science 35:4, pages 682-711.
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Lílian Cavalheiro Rodrigues & Josele Abreu-Rodrigues. (2007) "Falácia da conjunção": definição e variáveis de controle. Psicologia: Teoria e Pesquisa 23:4, pages 433-442.
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Jean Baratgin & Guy Politzer. (2006) Is the mind Bayesian? The case for agnosticism. Mind & Society 5:1, pages 1-38.
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Karl Halvor Teigen & Gideon Keren. (2003) Surprises: low probabilities or high contrasts?. Cognition 87:2, pages 55-71.
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