Search in:

Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography Volume 63, 2011 - Issue 3

Journal homepage

Open access

205

Views

CrossRef citations to date

Altmetric

Original Articles

Seven years of activity in the field of mesoscale ensemble forecasting by the COSMO-LEPS system: main achievements and open challenges

Andrea MontaniARPA-SIMC (HydroMeteoClimate Regional Service of Emilia-Romagna), Viale Silvani 6, 40122Bologna, ItalyCorrespondencee-mail: [email protected]

Davide CesariARPA-SIMC (HydroMeteoClimate Regional Service of Emilia-Romagna), Viale Silvani 6, 40122Bologna, Italy

Chiara MarsigliARPA-SIMC (HydroMeteoClimate Regional Service of Emilia-Romagna), Viale Silvani 6, 40122Bologna, Italy

Tiziana PaccagnellaARPA-SIMC (HydroMeteoClimate Regional Service of Emilia-Romagna), Viale Silvani 6, 40122Bologna, Italy

Pages 605-624 | Received 14 Apr 2010, Accepted 02 Dec 2010, Published online: 15 Dec 2016

Cite this article
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2010.00499.x

References
Citations
Metrics
Licensing
Reprints & Permissions
View PDF PDF

Citations (69)

Keep up to date with the latest research on this topic with citation updates for this article.

Subscribe to citation updates

Articles from other publishers (69)

Michael Tsyrulnikov, Elena Astakhova & Dmitry Gayfulin. (2023) Additive Model Perturbations Scaled by Physical Tendencies for Use in Ensemble Prediction. Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography 75:1, pages 334-357.
Crossref

Miriam Saraceni, Lorenzo Silvestri, Peter Bechtold & Paolina Bongioannini Cerlini. (2023) Mediterranean tropical-like cyclone forecasts and analysis using the ECMWF ensemble forecasting system with physical parameterization perturbations. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 23:21, pages 13883-13909.
Crossref

Euripides Avgoustoglou, Alon Shtivelman, Pavel Khain, Chiara Marsigli, Yoav Levi & Ines Cerenzia. (2023) The Sensitivity of the Icosahedral Non-Hydrostatic Numerical Weather Prediction Model over Greece in Reference to Observations as a Basis towards Model Tuning. Atmosphere 14:11, pages 1616.
Crossref

Pavel Khain, Alon Shtivelman, Yoav Levi, Anat Baharad, Eyal Amitai, Yizhak Carmona, Elyakom Vadislavsky, Amit Savir & Nir Stav. (2023) Optimizing convection‐permitting ensemble via selection of the coarse ensemble driving members. Meteorological Applications 30:4.
Crossref

Ke Zhang, Long Zhao, Kun Yang, Lisheng Song, Xiang Ni, Xujun Han, Mingguo Ma & Lei Fan. (2023) Uncertainty Quantification of Satellite Soil Moisture Retrieved Precipitation in the Central Tibetan Plateau. Remote Sensing 15:10, pages 2600.
Crossref

Kai-kwong Hon. (2022) Towards mesoscale ensemble prediction for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1087:1, pages 012033.
Crossref

Jie Yan, Corinna Möhrlen, Tuhfe Göçmen, Mark Kelly, Arne Wessel & Gregor Giebel. (2022) Uncovering wind power forecasting uncertainty sources and their propagation through the whole modelling chain. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 165, pages 112519.
Crossref

Anastasia Bundel, Elena Astakhova, Elizaveta Olkhovaya, Alexander Kirsanov & Dmitry Alferov. (2022) Spatial verification of a regional ensemble precipitation forecasting system at the Hydrometeorological Research Center of the Russian Federation using a free verification package, MET. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1023:1, pages 012001.
Crossref

Freddy P. Paul, Roshny S., Anurose T.J., D. Bala Subrahamanyam & Radhika Ramachandran. (2021) Numerical simulation of sea-breeze circulation over the Arabian Sea during the passage of a cyclonic storm OCKHI using a regional atmospheric model COSMO. Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans 96, pages 101265.
Crossref

Valerio Capecchi. (2021) Reforecasting Two Heavy-Precipitation Events with Three Convection-Permitting Ensembles. Weather and Forecasting 36:3, pages 769-790.
Crossref

D. Vanella, D.S. Intrigliolo, S. Consoli, G. Longo-Minnolo, G. Lizzio, R.C. Dumitrache, E. Mateescu, J. Deelstra & J.M. Ramírez-Cuesta. (2020) Comparing the use of past and forecast weather data for estimating reference evapotranspiration. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 295, pages 108196.
Crossref

Stefania Camici, Christian Massari, Luca Ciabatta, Ivan Marchesini & Luca Brocca. (2020) Which rainfall score is more informative about the performance in river discharge simulation? A comprehensive assessment on 1318 basins over Europe. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 24:10, pages 4869-4885.
Crossref

Christian Barthlott & Andrew I. Barrett. (2020) Large impact of tiny model domain shifts for the Pentecost 2014 mesoscale convective system over Germany. Weather and Climate Dynamics 1:1, pages 207-224.
Crossref

Kenichiro Kobayashi, Le Duc, Tsutao Oizumi & Kazuo Saito. (2020) Ensemble flood simulation for a small dam catchment in Japan using nonhydrostatic model rainfalls – Part 2: Flood forecasting using 1600-member 4D-EnVar-predicted rainfalls. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 20:3, pages 755-770.
Crossref

Christian Massari, Stefania Camici, Luca Ciabatta, Daniele Penna, Anna Cinzia Marra & Giulia Panegrossi. 2020. Water Resources in the Mediterranean Region. Water Resources in the Mediterranean Region 191 218 .

Pavel Khain, Yoav Levi, Alon Shtivelman, Elyakom Vadislavsky, Evgeny Brainin & Nir Stav. (2019) Improving the precipitation forecast over the Eastern Mediterranean using a smoothed time‐lagged ensemble. Meteorological Applications 27:1.
Crossref

Grazia Ghermandi, Sara Fabbi, Alessandro Bigi, Giorgio Veratti, Francesca Despini, Sergio Teggi, Carla Barbieri & Luca Torreggiani. (2019) Impact assessment of vehicular exhaust emissions by microscale simulation using automatic traffic flow measurements. Atmospheric Pollution Research 10:5, pages 1473-1481.
Crossref

Luca Mathias, Patrick Ludwig & Joaquim G. Pinto. (2019) Synoptic-scale conditions and convection-resolving hindcast experiments of a cold-season derecho on 3 January 2014 in western Europe. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 19:5, pages 1023-1040.
Crossref

Sándor Baran, Stephan Hemri & Mehrez El Ayari. (2019) Statistical Postprocessing of Water Level Forecasts Using Bayesian Model Averaging With Doubly Truncated Normal Components. Water Resources Research 55:5, pages 3997-4013.
Crossref

Carlo Cafaro, Thomas H. A. Frame, John Methven, Nigel Roberts & Jochen Bröcker. (2019) The added value of convection‐permitting ensemble forecasts of sea breeze compared to a Bayesian forecast driven by the global ensemble. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 145:721, pages 1780-1798.
Crossref

Samuel Monhart, Massimiliano Zappa, Christoph Spirig, Christoph Schär & Konrad Bogner. (2019) Subseasonal hydrometeorological ensemble predictions in small- and medium-sized mountainous catchments: benefits of the NWP approach. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 23:1, pages 493-513.
Crossref

Stefano Serafin, Lukas Strauss & Manfred Dorninger. (2019) Ensemble reduction using cluster analysis. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 145:719, pages 659-674.
Crossref

François Bouttier & Laure Raynaud. (2018) Clustering and selection of boundary conditions for limited‐area ensemble prediction. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 144:717, pages 2381-2391.
Crossref

Manfred Dorninger, Eric Gilleland, Barbara Casati, Marion P. Mittermaier, Elizabeth E. Ebert, Barbara G. Brown & Laurence J. Wilson. (2018) The Setup of the MesoVICT Project. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 99:9, pages 1887-1906.
Crossref

F. A. Hirpa, Florian Pappenberger, L. Arnal, C. A. Baugh, H. L. Cloke, E. Dutra, R. E. Emerton, B. Revilla‐Romero, Peter Salamon, P. J. Smith, E. Stephens, F. Wetterhall, E. Zsoter & J. Thielen‐del Pozo. 2018. Global Flood Hazard. Global Flood Hazard 205 228 .

G. B. Chirico, A. Pelosi, C. De Michele, S. Falanga Bolognesi & G. D'Urso. (2018) Forecasting potential evapotranspiration by combining numerical weather predictions and visible and near-infrared satellite images: an application in southern Italy. The Journal of Agricultural Science 156:5, pages 702-710.
Crossref

Matteo Corazza, Davide Sacchetti, Marta Antonelli & Oxana Drofa. (2018) The ARPAL operational high resolution Poor Man’s Ensemble, description and validation. Atmospheric Research 203, pages 1-15.
Crossref

Stefano Serafin, Bianca Adler, Joan Cuxart, Stephan De Wekker, Alexander Gohm, Branko Grisogono, Norbert Kalthoff, Daniel Kirshbaum, Mathias Rotach, Jürg Schmidli, Ivana Stiperski, Željko Večenaj & Dino Zardi. (2018) Exchange Processes in the Atmospheric Boundary Layer Over Mountainous Terrain. Atmosphere 9:3, pages 102.
Crossref

Riccardo Bonanno & Nicola Loglisci. (2017) Introducing lower boundary conditions perturbations in a convection-permitting ensemble system: sensitivity to soil moisture perturbation. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 130:1, pages 67-80.
Crossref

Stephan Hemri. 2018. Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts. Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts 219 240 .

Konrad Bogner, Katharina Liechti & Massimiliano Zappa. 2018. Advances in Hydroinformatics. Advances in Hydroinformatics 569 578 .

Anna Pelosi, Hanoi Medina, Joris Van den Bergh, Stéphane Vannitsem & Giovanni Battista Chirico. (2017) Adaptive Kalman Filtering for Postprocessing Ensemble Numerical Weather Predictions. Monthly Weather Review 145:12, pages 4837-4854.
Crossref

Grazia Ghermandi, Sara Fabbi, Barbara Arvani, Giorgio Veratti, Alessandro Bigi & Sergio Teggi. (2017) Impact Assessment of Pollutant Emissions in the Atmosphere from a Power Plant over a Complex Terrain and under Unsteady Winds. Sustainability 9:11, pages 2076.
Crossref

Konrad Bogner, Katharina Liechti & Massimiliano Zappa. (2017) Technical note: Combining quantile forecasts and predictive distributions of streamflows. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 21:11, pages 5493-5502.
Crossref

S. Hemri & B. Klein. (2017) Analog‐Based Postprocessing of Navigation‐Related Hydrological Ensemble Forecasts. Water Resources Research 53:11, pages 9059-9077.
Crossref

Jonas Olsson, B. Charlotta Pers, Lisa Bengtsson, Ilias Pechlivanidis, Peter Berg & Heiner Körnich. (2017) Distance-dependent depth-duration analysis in high-resolution hydro-meteorological ensemble forecasting: A case study in Malmö City, Sweden. Environmental Modelling & Software 93, pages 381-397.
Crossref

SeHyun Kim & Hyun Mee Kim. (2017) Effect of Considering Sub-Grid Scale Uncertainties on the Forecasts of a High-Resolution Limited Area Ensemble Prediction System. Pure and Applied Geophysics 174:5, pages 2021-2037.
Crossref

Lidia Bressan, Andrea Valentini, Tiziana Paccagnella, Andrea Montani, Chiara Marsigli & Maria Stefania Tesini. (2017) Sensitivity of sea-level forecasting to the horizontal resolution and sea surface forcing for different configurations of an oceanographic model of the Adriatic Sea. Advances in Science and Research 14, pages 77-84.
Crossref

Inger-Lise Frogner, Thomas Nipen, Andrew Singleton, John Bjørnar Bremnes & Ole Vignes. (2016) Ensemble Prediction with Different Spatial Resolutions for the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympic Games: The Effects of Calibration and Multimodel Approaches. Weather and Forecasting 31:6, pages 1833-1851.
Crossref

A. Pelosi, H. Medina, P. Villani, G. D’Urso & G.B. Chirico. (2016) Probabilistic forecasting of reference evapotranspiration with a limited area ensemble prediction system. Agricultural Water Management 178, pages 106-118.
Crossref

O. Nuissier, C. Marsigli, B. Vincendon, A. Hally, F. Bouttier, A. Montani & T. Paccagnella. (2016) Evaluation of two convection‐permitting ensemble systems in the HyMeX Special Observation Period (SOP1) framework. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 142:S1, pages 404-418.
Crossref

François Bouttier, Laure Raynaud, Olivier Nuissier & Benjamin Ménétrier. (2016) Sensitivity of the AROME ensemble to initial and surface perturbations during HyMeX. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 142, pages 390-403.
Crossref

Meral Demirtaş. (2016) The October 2011 devastating flash flood event of Antalya: triggering mechanisms and quantitative precipitation forecasting. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 142:699, pages 2336-2346.
Crossref

Richard J. Keane, Robert S. Plant & Warren J. Tennant. (2016) Evaluation of the Plant–Craig stochastic convection scheme (v2.0) in the ensemble forecasting system MOGREPS-R (24 km) based on the Unified Model (v7.3). Geoscientific Model Development 9:5, pages 1921-1935.
Crossref

Florian Weidle, Yong Wang & Geert Smet. (2016) On the Impact of the Choice of Global Ensemble in Forcing a Regional Ensemble System. Weather and Forecasting 31:2, pages 515-530.
Crossref

Konrad Bogner, Katharina Liechti & Massimiliano Zappa. (2016) Post-Processing of Stream Flows in Switzerland with an Emphasis on Low Flows and Floods. Water 8:4, pages 115.
Crossref

P.J. Smith, F. Pappenberger, F. Wetterhall, J. Thielen del Pozo, B. Krzeminski, P. Salamon, D. Muraro, M. Kalas & C. Baugh. 2016. Flood Forecasting. Flood Forecasting 313 348 .

R. J. Keane, R. S. Plant & W. J. Tennant. (2015) Evaluation of the Plant–Craig stochastic convection scheme in an ensemble forecasting system. Geoscientific Model Development Discussions 8:12, pages 10199-10236.
Crossref

Constantin Junk, Stephan Späth, Lueder von Bremen & Luca Delle Monache. (2015) Comparison and Combination of Regional and Global Ensemble Prediction Systems for Probabilistic Predictions of Hub-Height Wind Speed. Weather and Forecasting 30:5, pages 1234-1253.
Crossref

E. D. Astakhova, A. Montani & D. Yu. Alferov. (2015) Ensemble forecasts for the Sochi-2014 Olympic Games. Russian Meteorology and Hydrology 40:8, pages 531-539.
Crossref

C. Kühnlein, C. Keil, G. C. Craig & C. Gebhardt. (2014) The impact of downscaled initial condition perturbations on convective-scale ensemble forecasts of precipitation. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 140:682, pages 1552-1562.
Crossref

Tommaso Diomede, Chiara Marsigli, Andrea Montani, Fabrizio Nerozzi & Tiziana Paccagnella. (2014) Calibration of Limited-Area Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts for Hydrological Predictions. Monthly Weather Review 142:6, pages 2176-2197.
Crossref

R. Ferretti, E. Pichelli, S. Gentile, I. Maiello, D. Cimini, S. Davolio, M. M. Miglietta, G. Panegrossi, L. Baldini, F. Pasi, F. S. Marzano, A. Zinzi, S. Mariani, M. Casaioli, G. Bartolini, N. Loglisci, A. Montani, C. Marsigli, A. Manzato, A. Pucillo, M. E. Ferrario, V. Colaiuda & R. Rotunno. (2014) Overview of the first HyMeX Special Observation Period over Italy: observations and model results. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 18:5, pages 1953-1977.
Crossref

C. Marsigli, A. Montani & T. Paccagnella. (2014) Provision of boundary conditions for a convection-permitting ensemble: comparison of two different approaches. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics 21:2, pages 393-403.
Crossref

Christian Keil, Florian Heinlein & George C. Craig. (2014) The convective adjustment time-scale as indicator of predictability of convective precipitation. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 140:679, pages 480-490.
Crossref

C. Marsigli, A. Montani & T. Paccagnella. (2014) Perturbation of initial and boundary conditions for a limited-area ensemble: multi-model versus single-model approach. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 140:678, pages 197-208.
Crossref

K. Liechti, L. Panziera, U. Germann & M. Zappa. (2013) The potential of radar-based ensemble forecasts for flash-flood early warning in the southern Swiss Alps. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 17:10, pages 3853-3869.
Crossref

S. Hemri, F. Fundel & M. Zappa. (2013) Simultaneous calibration of ensemble river flow predictions over an entire range of lead times. Water Resources Research 49:10, pages 6744-6755.
Crossref

R. Ferretti, E. Pichelli, S. Gentile, I. Maiello, D. Cimini, S. Davolio, M. M. Miglietta, G. Panegrossi, L. Baldini, F. Pasi, F. S. Marzano, A. Zinzi, S. Mariani, M. Casaioli, G. Bartolini, N. Loglisci, A. Montani, C. Marsigli, A. Manzato, A. Pucillo, M. E. Ferrario, V. Colaiuda & R. Rotunno. (2013) Overview of the first HyMeX Special Observation Period over Italy: observations and model results. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions 10:9, pages 11643-11710.
Crossref

S. Davolio, M. M. Miglietta, T. Diomede, C. Marsigli & A. Montani. (2013) A flood episode in northern Italy: multi-model and single-model mesoscale meteorological ensembles for hydrological predictions. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 17:6, pages 2107-2120.
Crossref

A. Ceppi, G. Ravazzani, A. Salandin, D. Rabuffetti, A. Montani, E. Borgonovo & M. Mancini. (2013) Effects of temperature on flood forecasting: analysis of an operative case study in Alpine basins. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 13:4, pages 1051-1062.
Crossref

K. Liechti, L. Panziera, U. Germann & M. Zappa. (2013) Flash-flood early warning using weather radar data: from nowcasting to forecasting. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions 10:1, pages 1289-1331.
Crossref

Massimiliano Zappa, Felix Fundel & Simon Jaun. (2012) A ‘Peak‐Box’ approach for supporting interpretation and verification of operational ensemble peak‐flow forecasts. Hydrological Processes 27:1, pages 117-131.
Crossref

S. Davolio, M. M. Miglietta, T. Diomede, C. Marsigli & A. Montani. (2012) A flood episode in Northern Italy: multi-model and single-model mesoscale meteorological ensembles for hydrological predictions. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions 9:12, pages 13415-13450.
Crossref

O. Nuissier, B. Joly, B. Vié & V. Ducrocq. (2012) Uncertainty of lateral boundary conditions in a convection-permitting ensemble: a strategy of selection for Mediterranean heavy precipitation events. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 12:10, pages 2993-3011.
Crossref

M. W. Rotach, M. Arpagaus, M. Dorninger, C. Hegg, A. Montani & R. Ranzi. (2012) Uncertainty propagation for flood forecasting in the Alps: different views and impacts from MAP D-PHASE. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 12:8, pages 2439-2448.
Crossref

C. Peralta, Z. Ben Bouallègue, S. E. Theis, C. Gebhardt & M. Buchhold. (2012) Accounting for initial condition uncertainties in COSMO-DE-EPS. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 117:D7, pages n/a-n/a.
Crossref

S. Davolio, T. Diomede, C. Marsigli, M. M. Miglietta, A. Montani & A. Morgillo. (2012) Comparing different meteorological ensemble approaches: hydrological predictions for a flood episode in Northern Italy. Advances in Science and Research 8:1, pages 33-37.
Crossref

Luciana Bertotti & Luigi Cavaleri. (2011) The predictability of meteo-oceanographic events. Ocean Dynamics 61:9, pages 1391-1402.
Crossref

Share icon
Back to Top

Related research

People also read lists articles that other readers of this article have read.

Recommended articles lists articles that we recommend and is powered by our AI driven recommendation engine.

Cited by lists all citing articles based on Crossref citations.
Articles with the Crossref icon will open in a new tab.

People also read
Recommended articles
Cited by

To cite this article:

Reference style: APA Chicago Harvard

Citation copied to clipboard

Reference styles above use APA (6th edition), Chicago (16th edition) & Harvard (10th edition)

Download citation

Download a citation file in RIS format that can be imported by citation management software including EndNote, ProCite, RefWorks and Reference Manager.

Choose format: RIS BibTex RefWorks Direct Export

Choose options: Citation Citation & abstract Citation & references

Seven years of activity in the field of mesoscale ensemble forecasting by the COSMO-LEPS system: main achievements and open challenges

Articles from other publishers (69)

Information for

Open access

Opportunities

Help and information

Your download is now in progress and you may close this window

Login or register to access this feature

Seven years of activity in the field of mesoscale ensemble forecasting by the COSMO-LEPS system: main achievements and open challenges

Citations (69)

Articles from other publishers (69)

Related research

To cite this article:

Download citation

Information for

Open access

Opportunities

Help and information

Keep up to date