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Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography Volume 63, 2011 - Issue 3
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Original Articles

Ensemble prediction for nowcasting with a convection-permitting model—I: description of the system and the impact of radar-derived surface precipitation rates

Stefano MiglioriniDepartment of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6BB, UK;Correspondencee-mail: [email protected]
,
Mark DixonJoint Centre for Mesoscale Meteorology, Met Office, Reading, UK
,
Ross BannisterDepartment of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6BB, UK;
&
Sue BallardJoint Centre for Mesoscale Meteorology, Met Office, Reading, UK
Pages 468-496 | Received 14 Apr 2010, Accepted 13 Dec 2010, Published online: 15 Dec 2016

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R. N. Bannister, S. Migliorini & M. A. G. Dixon. (2011) Ensemble prediction for nowcasting with a convection-permitting model – II: forecast error statistics. Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography 63:3, pages 497-512.
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Articles from other publishers (25)

Man Hua, Jacob Bortnik, Adam C. Kellerman, Enrico Camporeale & Qianli Ma. (2023) Ensemble Modeling of Radiation Belt Electron Acceleration by Chorus Waves: Dependence on Key Input Parameters. Space Weather 21:3.
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Minseok Kang, Wooyoung Na & Chulsang Yoo. (2019) Rainfall Ensemble Member-Generation Method Accounting for Regional Characteristics. Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation 19:7, pages 63-76.
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Na & Yoo. (2019) Optimize Short-Term Rainfall Forecast with Combination of Ensemble Precipitation Nowcasts by Lagrangian Extrapolation. Water 11:9, pages 1752.
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Riccardo Bonanno & Nicola Loglisci. (2017) Introducing lower boundary conditions perturbations in a convection-permitting ensemble system: sensitivity to soil moisture perturbation. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 130:1, pages 67-80.
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Jonas Olsson, B. Charlotta Pers, Lisa Bengtsson, Ilias Pechlivanidis, Peter Berg & Heiner Körnich. (2017) Distance-dependent depth-duration analysis in high-resolution hydro-meteorological ensemble forecasting: A case study in Malmö City, Sweden. Environmental Modelling & Software 93, pages 381-397.
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François Bouttier, Laure Raynaud, Olivier Nuissier & Benjamin Ménétrier. (2016) Sensitivity of the AROME ensemble to initial and surface perturbations during HyMeX. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 142, pages 390-403.
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Yufei Ai, Wanbiao Li, Zhiyong Meng & Jun Li. (2016) Life Cycle Characteristics of MCSs in Middle East China Tracked by Geostationary Satellite and Precipitation Estimates. Monthly Weather Review 144:7, pages 2517-2530.
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Seonaid R. A. Dey, Nigel M. Roberts, Robert S. Plant & Stefano Migliorini. (2016) A new method for the characterization and verification of local spatial predictability for convective-scale ensembles. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 142:698, pages 1982-1996.
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Mihály Szűcs, András Horányi & Gabriella Szépszó. 2016. Mathematical Problems in Meteorological Modelling. Mathematical Problems in Meteorological Modelling 207 237 .
Laure Raynaud & F. Bouttier. (2016) Comparison of initial perturbation methods for ensemble prediction at convective scale. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 142:695, pages 854-866.
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Ross N. Bannister. (2015) How is the Balance of a Forecast Ensemble Affected by Adaptive and Nonadaptive Localization Schemes?. Monthly Weather Review 143:9, pages 3680-3699.
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G. Descombes, T. Auligné, F. Vandenberghe, D. M. Barker & J. Barré. (2015) Generalized background error covariance matrix model (GEN_BE v2.0). Geoscientific Model Development 8:3, pages 669-696.
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M. Sakradzija, A. Seifert & T. Heus. (2015) Fluctuations in a quasi-stationary shallow cumulus cloud ensemble. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics 22:1, pages 65-85.
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Laure Raynaud, Olivier Pannekoucke, Philippe Arbogast & François Bouttier. (2015) Application of a Bayesian weighting for short-range lagged ensemble forecasting at the convective scale. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 141:687, pages 459-468.
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Craig S. Schwartz, Glen S. Romine, Kathryn R. Smith & Morris L. Weisman. (2014) Characterizing and Optimizing Precipitation Forecasts from a Convection-Permitting Ensemble Initialized by a Mesoscale Ensemble Kalman Filter. Weather and Forecasting 29:6, pages 1295-1318.
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Glen S. Romine, Craig S. Schwartz, Judith Berner, Kathryn R. Fossell, Chris Snyder, Jeff L. Anderson & Morris L. Weisman. (2014) Representing Forecast Error in a Convection-Permitting Ensemble System. Monthly Weather Review 142:12, pages 4519-4541.
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Seonaid R. A. Dey, Giovanni Leoncini, Nigel M. Roberts, Robert S. Plant & Stefano Migliorini. (2014) A Spatial View of Ensemble Spread in Convection Permitting Ensembles. Monthly Weather Review 142:11, pages 4091-4107.
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M. Sakradzija, A. Seifert & T. Heus. (2014) Fluctuations in a quasi-stationary shallow cumulus cloud ensemble. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics Discussions 1:2, pages 1223-1282.
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C. Kühnlein, C. Keil, G. C. Craig & C. Gebhardt. (2014) The impact of downscaled initial condition perturbations on convective-scale ensemble forecasts of precipitation. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 140:682, pages 1552-1562.
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L. H. Baker, A. C. Rudd, S. Migliorini & R. N. Bannister. (2014) Representation of model error in a convective-scale ensemble prediction system. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics 21:1, pages 19-39.
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Zbynek Sokol, David Kitzmiller, Petr Pesice & Jan Mejsnar. (2013) Comparison of precipitation nowcasting by extrapolation and statistical-advection methods. Atmospheric Research 123, pages 17-30.
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Jean-François Caron. (2013) Mismatching Perturbations at the Lateral Boundaries in Limited-Area Ensemble Forecasting: A Case Study. Monthly Weather Review 141:1, pages 356-374.
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François Bouttier, Benoît Vié, Olivier Nuissier & Laure Raynaud. (2012) Impact of Stochastic Physics in a Convection-Permitting Ensemble. Monthly Weather Review 140:11, pages 3706-3721.
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S. Vetra-Carvalho, M. Dixon, S. Migliorini, N. K. Nichols & S. P. Ballard. (2012) Breakdown of hydrostatic balance at convective scales in the forecast errors in the Met Office Unified Model. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 138:668, pages 1709-1720.
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L. Foresti, M. Kanevski & A. Pozdnoukhov. (2011) Data-driven exploration of orographic enhancement of precipitation. Advances in Science and Research 6:1, pages 129-135.
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