A time delay dynamic system with external source for the local outbreak of 2019-nCoV

Abstract

How to model the 2019 CoronaVirus (2019-nCov) spread in China is one of the most urgent and interesting problems in applied mathematics. In this paper, we propose a novel time delay dynamic system with external source to describe the trend of local outbreak for the 2019-nCoV. The external source is introduced in the newly proposed dynamic system, which can be considered as the suspected people travel to different areas. The numerical simulations exhibit the dynamic system with the external source is more reliable than the one without it, and the rate of isolation is extremely important for controlling the increase of cumulative confirmed people of 2019-nCoV. Based on our numerical simulation results with the public data, we suggest that the local government should have some more strict measures to maintain the rate of isolation. Otherwise the local cumulative confirmed people of 2019-nCoV might be out of control.

COMMUNICATED BY:

• Y. S. Xu

Keywords:

• Dynamic system
• external source
• prediction
• 2019-nCoV

MSC classifications:

• 35R30
• 65N21

Acknowledgements

The authors thank for the helpful discussions with Prof. Guanghong Ding, Prof. Wenbin Chen and Prof. Shuai Lu in Fudan University, Prof. Xiang Xu in Zhejiang University, Dr. Yue Yan and Dr. Boxi Xu in Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, and the collection of official data by Mrs. Jingyun Bian. Cheer up Wuhan!

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1 The data and facts are from the website of National Health Commission of China: http://www.nhc.gov.cn/yjb.

2 The public data is obtained from the website of National Health Commission of China: http://www.nhc.gov.cn/yjb.

Additional information

Funding

This work of Jin Cheng was supported in part by the National Science Foundation of China [NSFC: No. 11971121], and the work of Keji Liu was substantially supported by the Science and Technology Commission of Shanghai Municipality under the ‘Shanghai Rising-Star Program’ No. 19QA1403400.