Asymmetry and Non-linearity in Discouraged and Added Worker Effects

ABSTRACT

We examine whether discouraged and added worker effects are state-dependent, business cycle phase-dependent, or change stochastically. We use quarterly LFS data for the 1995–2016 period for Poland. Labor force participation rate behaves non-linearly. The change is rapid and connected to the stable value of the cyclical unemployment rate. An unemployment rate higher than 13% implies a discouraged worker effect. Policy actions should aim to prolong the labor market activity (added worker effect) of females and older workers. Workers may be encouraged to reenter the labor market if their probability of finding a job is improved through active economic policy measures.

KEYWORDS:

• Discouraged worker effect
• added worker effect
• threshold estimation
• asymmetry
• non-linearity
• state-dependence

JEL CLASSIFICATION:

• C22
• J22

Acknowledgments

This article was prepared within a project: “The cyclicality of the labour force participation. The added/discouraged worker effect analysis” financed by the National Science Centre Poland, project no. UMO-2016/21/D/HS4/02808.

Data availability statement

The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author, [EGB], upon reasonable request.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by the Narodowe Centrum Nauki [UMO-2016/21/D/HS4/02808].