Global risk assessment for development processes: from framework to simulation

Abstract

The dynamic and complex nature of development processes calls for improvements in risk management methods. To deal with the risks, the authors advocate for a paradigm shift. The focus is moving from individual risk to risk interactions. Standards suggest integrating methods to address the limitations imposed by existing approaches. As a result, new strategies are needed to express and assess risk connections. The paper proposes a global framework and its simulator for: (a) representing individual risk events and including them in a product development, (b) expressing risk interactions, (c) integrating risks hierarchically and (d) evaluating risks. The solution is based on distinction between individual risk events and global process and its risk behaviour. Risk behaviour is characterised on task level. Process behaviour enables the integration of task risk into the development process. Risk management is viewed as a part of the development process, with final risk assessed bottom-up from individual risk to process risk. Consequently, the main contribution is not only in taking risk interactions into account but also in contextualising risk assessment in relation to development processes. Simulation is conducted for hair dryer design. However, the solution is global and can be used for other manufacturing and development processes.

KEYWORDS:

• Risk management
• risk analysis
• uncertainty
• process modelling
• simulation
• agent-based systems

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Data availability statement

The authors confirm that the data supporting the findings of this study are available within the article.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Jelena Petronijevic

Jelena Petronijevic is an associate professor in industrial engineering at Arts et Metiers Institute of Technology. She received her PhD in industrial engineering from Arts et Metiers Institute of Technology in 2020. Her research interests include risk management, integration of human factors in production system simulation and optimization, and multi-agent systems.

Alain Etienne

Alain Etienne is an associate professor of computer and industrial engineering in the Laboratory of Industrial Engineering and Mechanical Production at Ecole Nationale Supérieure d'Arts et Métiers, France. He received his PhD in manufacturing engineering from University of Lorraine, France in 2007. His research interests include artificial intelligence, risk identification and human safety applied to product and manufacturing systems design.

Ali Siadat

Ali Siadat received his PhD in robotics and digital signal processing from Institut National Polytechnique de Lorraine in France. He stated his carrier as associate professor in computer and industrial engineering at Arts et Metiers and became full professor in 2016 at the same engineering school. He was head of applied mathematics and computer Engineering department during 7 years and since 2019, he's Director of Design, Manufacturing and Control laboratory. He served also as Guest Professor in several universities in China, Iran, Morocco and Brazil. His research interests include artificial intelligence, information system, knowledge formalisation and operations research applied to production system fields. He has published over than 60 papers in distinguished scientific journals and more than 80 papers in international conferences and he supervised more than 25 PhD theses. Ali Siadat is actively involved in Factories of the Future program in France and his research activities are drive usually with international collaborations and very closed to industries. His new research projects interest to integrated human factors to optimisation of production systems.