Enhancement of applicability of high-efficiency random sampling method using control variates method and sensitivity coefficients

ABSTRACT

The CV-S method is a high-efficiency random sampling method to estimate statistical moments of random variables, and it uses an approximated target parameter which are linearly dependent on input as a mockup parameter. In order to enhance the applicability of the CV-S method, we propose to use a mockup parameter which is different from but similar to a target parameter and whose sensitivity coefficients are available. In the present work, nuclear fuel burnup problems are concerned, and standard deviation of k∞ and nuclide number densities at certain fuel burnup are estimated by the CV-S method. Through numerical tests, it is clearly demonstrated that even if sensitivity coefficients of non burnup-related parameters in a simple system like a fuel pin-cell are used as the mockup, the CV-S method has a potential to efficiently estimate statistical moments of burnup-related parameters in a complicated system like a fuel assembly.

KEYWORDS:

• Uncertainty quantification
• random sampling
• sensitivity
• control variates method

Acknowledgments

This work is supported by the secretariat of the nuclear regulation authority of Japan.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).