Stalling fertility decline of Israeli Muslims and the demographic transition theory

Abstract

The total fertility of Muslims in Israel declined from a level of nearly ten children per woman in the mid-1960s to about 4.5 children per woman in the mid-1980s. It then remained close to 4.5 children per woman for nearly 20 years. The reasons for this long stall in the fertility decline are not understood. This paper explores the roles of marriage patterns and marital fertility in the development of the stall in Muslim fertility decline in Israel from 1986 to 2003. The results show that the fertility decline among Muslims in Israel stalled owing to abrupt discontinuations of declines in both the proportion married and marital fertility. The former is explained by the relaxation of a marriage squeeze that had resulted from past fluctuations in fertility. These findings have implications for debates on the determinants of fertility stalls and for demographic transition theory.

Keywords:

• fertility stalls
• marriage squeeze
• Muslims
• Israel
• Middle East
• Arab demography
• demographic transition theory

Notes

1 Please direct all correspondence to Daniel Staetsky, Institute for Jewish Policy Research, ORT House, 126 Albert Street, London NW1 7NE, UK; or by E-mail: [email protected]

2 The author is grateful to Andrew Hinde, the editors, and three anonymous reviewers for the perceptive comments that considerably helped to improve the manuscript.