Testing for monotonic trend in time series based on resampling methods

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we propose several tests for monotonic trend based on the Brillinger's test statistic (1989, Biometrika, 76, 23–30). When there are highly correlated residuals or short record lengths, Brillinger's test procedure tends to have significance level much higher than the nominal level. It is found that this could be related to the discrepancy between the empirical distribution of the test statistic and the asymptotic normal distribution. Hence, in this paper, we propose three bootstrap-based procedures based on the Brillinger's test statistic to test for monotonic trend. The performance of the proposed test procedures is evaluated through an extensive Monte Carlo simulation study, and is compared to other trend test procedures in the literature. It is shown that the proposed bootstrap-based Brillinger test procedures can well control the significance levels and provide satisfactory power performance in testing the monotonic trend under different scenarios.

KEYWORDS:

• Monotone trend
• bootstrap
• significance level
• power
• simulations

2010 MATHEMATICS SUBJECT CLASSIFICATIONS:

• 37M10
• 62F40
• 62H15

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by Simons Foundation [grant number 280601].