An exit without strategy: learning from the Soviet Bloc’s retreat from the Horn of Africa and Central America

Abstract

This article investigates the closing years of East–West Cold War rivalry by focussing on the inconsistent implementation of Mikhail Gorbachev’s policies of de-escalating decade-long regional conflicts across the globe. It closely examines Moscow and its Eastern European ally’s disengagement from two of the hottest war zones at the end of the Cold War, the Horn of Africa and Central America, consulting a wide range of Soviet and Eastern European party, diplomatic and security services archives. The paper argues that there was more to an economic interest that justified the Soviet Bloc’s continuing military deliveries as its leaders publicly pleaded for disarmament. As the military and intelligence services maintained their policy influence until late 1980, some of their analyses suggest that lingering security imperatives concerning the progressive regimes in the developing nations continued to play a notable role behind the scenes in motivating the Bloc’s contradictive withdrawal. This argument provides a plausible correlational explanation for the lingering inertia of ‘old thinking’ in the Kremlin’s relations with today’s Global South, precipitating a less orderly exit from regional hotbeds of conflict.

Keywords:

• Soviet Union
• Third World
• Horn of Africa
• Central America
• Cold War
• conflict resolution

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.

Notes on contributor

Radoslav Yordanov completed his doctoral studies at Oxford University, defending a thesis on the Soviet Union’s involvement in Ethiopia and Somalia during the Cold War. This thesis served as the basis for his recent book The Soviet Union and the Horn of Africa During the Cold War: Between Ideology and Pragmatism, published in the Harvard Cold War Book Series. Following visiting stints at the Russian Academy of Science’s Institute of World History and Columbia’s Harriman Institute, he is currently working on his second book-length manuscript at the Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies at Harvard University. Using a broad range of newly declassified materials from Eastern European archives, this project aims to conceptualise the relationships between the former Soviet Bloc states and the Third World. His most recent research on East–South relations during the Cold War appeared in the Journal of Cold War Studies, Third World Quarterly, Journal of Contemporary History and International History Review.

Notes

1 Holloway, “Gorbachev’s New Thinking,” 67.

2 The Third World was not a geopolitical entity of the Cold War’s making but rather a project created on less developed countries’ initiative. Alfred Sauvy is credited for coining the term, concluding that, similarly to the Third Estate during the French Revolution, the ‘ignored, exploited and despited’ Third World ‘also wanted to be something’. See Sauvy, “Trois mondes, une planète,“ 14. This paper references the now obsolete geopolitical connotation of the term pertinent to the second half of the twentieth century when the undeveloped countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America became a hot arena of intense Cold War rivalry between Washington and Moscow.

3 By ‘Soviet Bloc’ this paper denotes the Soviet Union and its core East European allies, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, the German Democratic Republic (GDR), Hungary and Poland.

4 See Yordanov, “Soviet Involvement in Ethiopia and Somalia”; Yordanov, Soviet Union in the Horn of Africa; Yordanov, “ Outfoxing the Eagle.”

5 Westad, Global Cold War; Kalinovsky and Radchenko, End of the Cold War.

6 Mark, Kalinovsky, and Marung, Alternative Globalizations; Dallywater, Saunders, and Fonseca, Southern African Liberation Movements.

7 English, Russia and the Idea of the West, 210, cited in Zubok, Failed Empire, 286.

8 Woodby, Gorbachev and the Decline of Ideology, 14.

9 Grachev, Gorbachev’s Gamble, 112; Goodman, Gorbachev’s Retreat, 114; Yordanov, “Soviet Involvement in Ethiopia and Somalia,” 281.

10 Gorbachev on his meeting with Chissano (Mozambique), 6 August 1987, in Chernyaev et al., V. Politbiuro TsK KPSS, 217–18.

11 Grachev, Gorbachev’s Gamble, 112.

12 Legvold, “Revolution in Soviet Foreign Policy,” 360.

13 Chernyaev, Sovmestnyi iskhod, 720.

14 Brutents, Nesbyvsheesia, 171.

15 Arbatov, System: An Insider’s Life, 322.

16 Dowden, “Soviet Era Gives Way to Chaos,” 17.

17 Shevardnadze, Future Belongs to Freedom, 169–70.

18 For more details see Yordanov, Soviet Union and the Horn of Africa.

19 Goodman, Gorbachev’s Retreat, 176; See also Shubin, Hot Cold War, 264.

20 Baker, Politics of Diplomacy, 218.

21 Interview with H. Cohen, August 15, 1996, Association for Diplomatic Studies and Training (ADST), https://www.adst.org/OH%20TOCs/Cohen,%20Herman%20J.toc.pdf, 82 (accessed January 25, 2020).

22 Telegram, Jaruzelski to Mengistu, c 1985, AAN, PZPR KC, XIA 1406, 1985, teczka 7, 1 [54].

23 “Sprawozdanie z pobytu II zmiany Polskiej Lotniczej Eskadry Pomocy Etiopii,” c. 1986, IPN, BU 2386/33561, 6 [510].

24 Chernyaev, Shest let s Gorbachovym, 68.

25 O. Osintsev, “K voprosu ob amerikanskoi pomoshchi, predostavlyaemoi v Efiopii v svyazi s zasukhoi,” 6 Sept. 1985, AVP RF, f. 143, op. 48, d. 7, 50, ll. 1–2 [72–73].

26 “Iz besedy s general’nym sekretarem TsK Rabochei Partii Efiopii, Predsedatelem Vremennogo Administrativnogo Soveta Efiopii Mengistu Khaile Mariamom, 17 aprelya 1987 goda,” in Gorbachev, Sobranie sochinenii, Vol. 6, 356.

27 “Spravka otnosno voenno-politicheskata obstanovka v rayona na Afrikanskiya rog – systoyanie i perspektivi za rareshavane na osnovnite regionalni i nacionalni problem,” 11 May 1987, COMDOS, Mf 1569, ae 1586, delo 221, t. A, ch. 2, 1 [49].

28 “Spravka otnosno voenno-politicheskata obstanovka v Sotsialisticheska Etiopia,” 9 July 1987, COMDOS, Mf 1569, ael 1586, delo 221, t. A, ch. 2, 9–10 [140–141].

29 O. Osintsev, “O nekotorykh aspektakh sotsial’nykh problem Efiopii,” 24 Sept. 1987, AVP RF, f. 143, o 50, d. 9, per. 54, 4 [115].

30 FCO Background Brief, “Ethiopia: Problems for the USSR,” July 1980, TNA, FO 973/100.

31 V. Mishachev, “Politika VVAS po natsional’nomu voprosu i meropriyatiya po resheniyu Eritrejskoj problemy (Spravka),” 12 August. 1978, AVP RF, f. 143, op. 41, p. 36, d. 7, l. 10 [83].

32 L. Romanov, “Eritreya i Krasnomorskaya Problema (spravka),” 11 April 1978, AVP RF, f. 143, op. 41, p. 36, d. 7, l. 12 [97].

33 [Information on situation in Ethiopia], 7 April 1988, IPN BU 0449/19 vol. 8, 1.

34 Puzyrev, Torgovyi flot SSSR, 46.

35 The Diary of Anatoly S. Chernyaev: 1987–1988, https://nsarchive2.gwu.edu/NSAEBB/ NSAEBB250/Chernyaev_Diary_1988.pdf (accessed January 25, 2020), 14.

36 Chernyaev, Sovmestnyi iskhod, 749.

37 Brutents, Tridtsat’ let na Staroi Ploshchadi, 217–18.

38 “Die aktuelle Lage in der VDRAe under der Region,” c. June 1988, BStU, MfS HA I 13935, 14 [92].

39 Letter, Gorbachev to Honecker, n.d., SAPMO BArch, DY30/2389, 223.

40 Sándor Róbel, “V. M. Csebrikov etiópiai látogatása,” 25 January 1989, MNL, XIX-J-1-j, Szovjetunió, 1989, 83d, Levéltári szám: 145–13, 2. See also Memorandum of Conversation (MemCon), Dimitriev–Naidenov, 10 March 1989, DAMVnR-RB, f. Ya., op. 46–7, a.e. 48, 1–2 [7–8].

41 “Hlášení residentury o činnosti za období srpen—listopad 1988,” 28 November 1988, ABS, f. ZS-GŠ, sv. Rezidentury Ašant, e. č. 133016, P-3, Ašant—794, č.j.: 0028/88, 141; Dowden, “Soviet Era Gives Way to Chaos,” 17; Somerville, “Sub-Saharan Africa,” 218. For Mengistu’s lack of understanding of Gorbachev reforms see Orizio, Talk of the Devil, 152–3.

42 Translation Management and Provision for International Organizations, MID USSR, “O negativnykh tendentsiyakh v razvitii Efiopii,” 22 February 1989, AVP RF, f. 143, op. 52, d. 8 (t. 1), p. 58, l. 5 [5].

43 MemCon, Honecher – Risquets, SAPMO BArch, 17 April 1989, DY30/2462, pp. 14–16 [447–449].

44 “O nashikh shagakh v svyazi s obrashcheniyami Mengistu Haile Mariama,” note to point 30 of CPSU CC Protocol meeting no. 165 of 19 September 1989, RGANI, f. 89, per. 10, d. 43, l. 3.

45 Sándor Róbel, “Az etióp-szovjet kapcsolatok ujabb fejleményei,” 25 October 1989, MNL, XIX-J-1-j, Ethiopia, 1989, 33d, levéltári szám: 41-10, 4.

46 Somerville, “Sub-Saharan Africa,” 219.

47 “O vnutripoliticheskom krizise v Efiopii i vozmozhnȳkh shagakh SSSR po ego uregulirovaniyu,” RGANI, f. 89, per. 11, d. 189, l. 5.

48 “Vermerk aus meinem Gespräch mit dem sowjetischen Botschafter am 09.April,” 12 April 1991, PAAA, AV Neues Amt, 24449, 1.

49 Besuch des äthio Aussenministers Tesfaye Dinka in Moskau, 17 April 1991, PAAA, AV Neues Amt, 24449, 4.

50 ‘O rezul’tatakh rassmotreniya pros’by General’nogo sekretarya TsK Rabochei partii Efiopii, Prezidenta Narodnoi Demokraticheskoi Respubliki Efiopii Mengistu Haile Mariama,” memo re. point 18 of CPSU CC Politburo meeting no. 187 of 11 May 1990, RGANI , f. 89, per. 10, d. 59, l. 1.1.

51 Makinda, “Security in the Horn of Africa,” 306 [10].

52 “Zpráva o cestě do Nikaraguy [4–23 Dec. 1980],” c. December 1980, NAČR, KSČ-ÚV 1945–1989, Praha – Gustáv Husák, karton 418, 4.

53 LeoGrande, Our Own Backyard, 558; Prizel, Latin America through Soviet Eyes, 194; Randall and Mount, Caribbean Basin, 152; Blank, “Soviet Foreign Policy,” 18.

54 “Information über die sowjetische Mittelamerika-Politik aus BRD-Sicht,” 7 January 1985, BStU, Archiv der Zentralstelle, MfS Hauptverwaltung Aufklarung Nr. 35, Teil 2 von 2, 1 [364].

55 “Celkové politické hodnocení výměny názorů s Nicaragujci a jejich hlavních směrů je obsaženo v uveřejněné zprávě o setkání M. S. Gorbačova a dalších sovětských vedoucích činitelů s nicaragujskou delegacy,” c. 1985, NAČR, KSČ – Ústřední výbor 1945–1989, Praha – Gustáv Husák, karton 417, 2–3.

56 Ibid., 1–3.

57 “Konzultáció Roger Baldizonnal, a Nicaraguai KÜM Szocialista Országok Főosztálya vezetőjével,” 16 October 1987, MNL, M-KS, 288, f/32, 1987, 4 ö.e., 5, [350].

58 MemCon, Bayardo Arce Castaño, 14 March 1988, MNL, M-KS, 288, f/11, 4450, 4 [129].

59 MemCon, Bush–Gorbachev, 2–3 December 1989, Wilson Center Digital Archive, http://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/document/117430 (accessed April 23, 2018).

60 “Itogovyi dokument rabochei vstrechi predstavitelei MID NRB, VNR, GDR, PNR, SSSR i ChSSR po voprosam otnoshenii s gosudarstvami Latinskoi Ameriki [2–4 December 1987, Moscow],” 19 April 1988, DAMvNR, 1988, d. 1, op. 45-8, pr. 7, 4–5 [5–6].

61 “Politik der UdSSR gegenüber den lateinamerikanischen Staaten,” 13 April 1987, MfAA Information Nr 71/IV, BStU, MfS – HA II, Nr 28981, 5–7 [85–87].

62 “Likely Soviet Posture on Regional Issues at the Ministerial: Afghanistan, Angola, Cambodia, Arab–Israeli Peace Process, Persian Gulf, Nicaragua,” 16 February 1988, NARA II, RG 263, Directorate of Intelligence, A-1 (82), box 27, folder 23875, 16.

63 V. Pavlov, “Informatsia otnosno konferentsia na tema ‘SASht, Ts. Amerika i Kontadora,’” February 1986, DAMVnR, op. 43-8, a. e. 266, 8 [9].

64 MemCon, Jaruzelski-Ceaușescu, 6 June 1984, AAN, PZPR, XIA/1405, [131]. In April 1987, Todor Zhivkov expressed similar thoughts, telling the Algerian president, Chadli Bendjedid, that the developing countries needed peace to develop independently, while the socialist countries needed that peace even more, so they can continue to follow the path they chose and prove the advantages of the socialist system. See MemCon, Zhivkov-Bendjedid, 21 April 1987, TsDA, f. 1B, op. 60, a.e. 394, 4 [6].

65 J. Biały, “Notatka informacyjna na temat porozumienia między rządem i zbrojną opozycją w Nikaragui na tle aktualnej sytuacji w Ameryce Środkowej,” 2 April 1988, IPN BU 1585/2020, 5 [92].

66 “Tájékoztató a Politikai Bizottságnak és a Minisztertanácsnak a VSZ tagállamai külügyminisztereinek prágai találkozójáról,” 25 February 1988, MNL, M-KS 288, f. 11, o. e. 4450, 1–2 [26–27].

67 MemCon, Mielke-Suárez, 23 Sept. 1988, BStU, MfS-Abt. X, Nr. 1726, 6 [14]; Storkmann, “East German Military Aid,” 65–6.

68 Yordanov, “Outfoxing the Eagle,” 890.

69 Atanasov to Politburo, 17 December 1986, TsDA, f. 1B, op. 64, a. e. 853, 2 [4].

70 Yordanov, “Outfoxing the Eagle,” 890; Paszyn, Soviet Attitude to Political and Social Change, 79; Kagan, Twilight Struggle, 642; Oberdorfer, The Turn, 340–41, cited in LeoGrande, Our Own Backyard, 558; Desjeans and Clement, “Soviet Policy,” 225.

71 “Sowjetische Einschätzung zur Entwicklung in Mittelamerika," MfAA Information Nr 41/VI, 9 June 1989, BStU, MfS – HAII, No. 28981, 1 [142].

72 LeoGrande and Kornbluh, Back Channel to Cuba; LeoGrande, Our Own Backyard, 558; Crandall, Salvador Option, 457.

73 Savranskaya, “Gorbachev and the Third World,” 34–5.

74 Incoming cipher [Managua-Sofia] No. 4168, 28 March 1990, COMDOS, f. 9, op. 4, a.e. 70, 1–2 [43–44].

75 Mirski, “Soviet–American Relations in the Third World,” 173–4.

76 Kramer, “Decline in Soviet Arms Transfers,” 48.

77 “Voenno-politicheskaya obstanovka v mire,” 16 June 1986, COMDOS, Inv. No. 3966, 8.

78 MemCon, Zhivkov-Al-Beidh, 14 May 1988, TsDA, f. 1B, op. 60, a.e. 409, 7–8.

79 “Zaklyuchitel’nyy Dokument Berlinskogo soveshchaniya rukovoditeley vneshnikh razvedok organov bezopasnosti stran sotsialisticheskogo sodruzhestva,” 17–21 October 1988, COMDOS, f. 9, op. 4, a.e. 52, 5–6 [191–192].

80 Ibid., 17–18 [204–205].

81 See Westad, Global Cold War; Devlin, Chief of Station, Congo; Prashad, Darker Nations.