Trade Uber for the Bus?

Abstract

Problem, research strategy, and findings: Few studies have examined ride-hail users’ individual preferences between ride-hail and transit. Based on a survey of ride-hail users in the Philadelphia (PA) region, I examine who uses ride-hail and investigate ride-hail users’ willingness to use ride-hail versus transit. My results suggest that more than one-quarter of respondents replaced transit with ride-hail in their last ride-hail trips. Mixed logit regression analysis based on stated preference choice experiments indicate that higher-income respondents and respondents over 30 years old are increasingly willing to choose ride-hail over transit, even though their actual ride-hail usage is lower than that among lower-income and younger respondents. Results also show that female respondents are more willing to choose ride-hail over transit than male respondents and less frequent transit users are more likely to choose ride-hail than frequent transit users. Higher cost and longer trip duration are significant deterrents for travel by either mode. Respondents consider the time spent on walking to and from transit more burdensome than in-vehicle travel time and wait time for transit and ride-hail. They consider waiting for ride-hail less burdensome than waiting for transit. Survey sampling and design limitations provide lessons for future ride-hail studies.

Takeaway for practice: Practitioners should ensure convenient, affordable travel options for lower-income residents, who are more frequent but less willing ride-hail users than higher-income residents. Female respondents’ safety concerns about transit should urge transit agencies to recognize female transit riders’ travel needs. The relationship between age and willingness to use ride-hail reminds planners to anticipate greater substitution of ride-hail for transit as the more tech-savvy generation starts entering their 30s. Last, fare reduction alone may not be enough to prompt ride-hail users to switch to transit. Service improvements that shorten the overall trip duration are imperative to make transit more attractive.

Keywords:

• mixed logit model
• mode choice
• public transit
• ride-hail
• stated preference survey

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

I thank Professor Erick Guerra at the University of Pennsylvania and Professor Ricardo Daziano at Cornell University for their invaluable input in the survey design, statistical analysis, and revision of the article. Professor Emeritus Paul Allison at the University of Pennsylvania also shared generous insights during the revision.

RESEARCH SUPPORT

Funding support was provided by the U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT) Tier 1 University Transportation Center “Cooperative Mobility for Competitive Megaregions” (CM2; USDOT Award No. 69A3551747135). The Kleinman Center for Energy Policy at the University of Pennsylvania Stuart Weitzman School of Design funded the survey.

SUPPLEMENTAL MATERIAL

Supplemental data for this article can be found on the publisher’s website

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Xiaoxia Dong

XIAOXIA DONG ([email protected]) is a PhD candidate in city and regional planning at the University of Pennsylvania.