Evaluation of precipitation forecasts for five-day streamflow forecasting in Narmada River basin

ABSTRACT

The accuracy of quantitative rainfall forecasts (QPFs) obtained from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models plays a crucial role in setting up a catchment streamflow forecasting system. Additionally, a suitable hydrological model is required. This study addresses input and model uncertainty in developing a five-day streamflow forecasting system in Narmada River Basin. We use deterministic and ensemble QPFs obtained from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). We use two hydrological models, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and variable infiltration capacity (VIC), to generate streamflow forecasts. By comparing simulated streamflow forecasts with the observed discharge data, our results indicate that the forecast accuracy of NCMRWF is better than other forecasting products for lead times of two to five days. The streamflow generated using VIC produces better results than that obtained from the SWAT hydrological model.

KEYWORDS:

• Streamflow Forecasting
• hydrological models
• numerical weather prediction (NWP)
• National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF)

Editor A. Castellarin Associate Editor M. Ionita

Editor A. Castellarin Associate Editor M. Ionita

Acknowledgements

This research was completed thanks to the support of the Science and Engineering Research Board (SERB), project number CRG/2018/000649, awarded to Sanjeev Kumar Jha.

Supplementary material

Supplemental data for this article can be accessed online at https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2022.2151913

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by the Science and Engineering Research Board (SERB) (http://www.serb.gov.in/) of India [CRG/2018/000649].