Influence of atmospheric circulation on the variability of hydroclimatic parameters in the Marmara Sea river basins

ABSTRACT

Understanding the influence of atmospheric circulation on the variability of hydroclimatic parameters can considerably contribute to water management. In this study, atmospheric dynamics on rainfall/runoff variability in Marmara Sea river basins were investigated via principal component analysis (PCA) and trend analyses. Correlation maps were obtained for rainfall/runoff PC scores and 500 hPa geopotential using ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5). The correlations between rainfall/runoff PC scores and teleconnection indices were employed to support the PCA analysis. The first component, a monopolar structure, expresses northerly atmospheric influence on the rainfall/runoff; the second component, a dipolar structure, explains the low rainfall/runoff conditions; the last component defines local properties. Teleconnections demonstrate that North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is highly correlated with rainfall and runoff PC scores, particularly in winter. Moreover, runoff trends are consistent with rainfall trends except for summer, and these trends and oscillations are related to the teleconnections. Therefore, the anomalies can be predicted based on atmospheric conditions.

KEYWORDS:

• Marmara Sea river basins
• principal component analysis
• trend test
• rainfall/runoff

Editor S. Archfield; Associate Editor M. Ionita

Editor S. Archfield; Associate Editor M. Ionita

Acknowledgements

We thank the two anonymous reviewers for their fruitful and constructive comments that vastly improved the manuscript.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Additional information

Funding

TUBITAK-Scientific and Technological Research of Turkey funded this study via the 2214-A Program and Scientific Research Program of Istanbul University-BAP (Project No: 57515, 39111 and 38985). The authors are also supported by the 121Y578 TUBITAK project and the Scientific Research Projects Coordination Unit of Bursa Uludağ University (Project No: SGA-2022-735, OUAP(F)-2019/13).