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Articles

IV. The Evolution of the Russian Threat to NATO

Pages 54-66 | Published online: 04 Apr 2020
 

Notes

1 Russian leaders have consistently articulated a policy of maintaining close links with and influence within Russia’s neighbouring area. In addition to ‘sphere of influence’, other terms that Russians use, including ‘near abroad’ or Russkiy Mir (Russian world), illustrate Russian thinking about its relations with neighbouring states. See, for example, Olga Oliker et al., Russian Foreign Policy: Sources and Implications (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2009).

2 Levada-Center, <http://www.levada.ru/en/>, accessed 29 January 2020.

3 Brian D Taylor, The Code of Putinism (New York, NY: Oxford University Press, 2018).

4 Andrea Kendall-Taylor and David Shullman, ‘How Russia and China Undermine Democracy’, Foreign Affairs, 2 October 2018.

5 Thomas Graham, ‘Let Russia Be Russia: The Case for a More Pragmatic Approach to Moscow’, Foreign Affairs (November/December 2019).

6 Samuel Charap, ‘Russia’s Use of Military Force as a Foreign Policy Tool: Is There a Logic?’, PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo No. 443, October 2016.

7 Michael Kofman, ‘From Hammer to Rapier: Russian Military Transformation in Perspective’, Russia Brief 1, University of Oxford, Changing Character of War Centre, January 2018, <http://www.ccw.ox.ac.uk/russia-brief-issue-i>, accessed 7 February 2020; Susanne Oxenstierna and Fredrik Westerlund (eds), ‘Russian Military Capability in a Ten-Year Perspective – 2019’, Swedish Defense Research Agency, December 2019, <https://www.foi.se/rest-api/report/FOI-R--4758--SE>, accessed 7 February 2020.

8 Graham, ‘Let Russia Be Russia’.

9 Kommersant, ‘Putin: NATO Expansion Dangerous for Russia’, 3 December 2019.

10 President of the Russian Federation, ‘The Military Doctrine of the Russian Federation’ (in Russian), 5 February 2010, <https://web.archive.org/web/20110504070127/ http://www.scrf.gov.ru/documents/33.html>, accessed 28 November 2019.

11 Keir Giles, Handbook of Russian Information Warfare, NATO Defense College Fellowship Manual No. 9 (Rome: NATO Defense College, 2016), <http://www.ndc.nato.int/news/news.php?icode=995>, accessed 18 January 2020.

12 Nicole Ng and Eugene Rumer, ‘The West Fears Russia’s Hybrid Warfare. They’re Missing the Bigger Picture’, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 3 July 2019, <https://carnegieendowment.org/2019/07/03/west-fears-russia-s-hybrid-warfare.-they-re-missing-bigger-picture-pub-79412>, accessed 7 February 2020.

13 Anya Loukianova Fink, ‘The Evolving Russian Concept of Strategic Deterrence: Risks and Responses’, Arms Control Today, July/August 2017.

14 Dave Johnson, ‘Nuclear Weapons in Russia’s Approach to Conflict’, Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique, 28 November 2016, <https://www.frstrategie.org/web/documents/publications/recherches-et-documents/2016/201606.pdf>, accessed 18 January 2020.

15 Andrei Afanas’evich Kokoshin, ‘Strategic Nuclear and Nonnuclear Deterrence: Modern Priorities’, Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences (Vol. 84, No. 2, March 2014).

16 Russian Maritime Studies Institute, ‘Maritime Doctrine of the Russian Federation’, translated by Anna Davis, 2015, <https://dnnlgwick.blob.core.windows.net/portals/0/NWCDepartments/Russia%20Maritime%20Studies%20Institute/Maritime%20Doctrine%20TransENGrus_FINAL.pdf?sr=b&si=DNNFileManagerPolicy&sig=fqZgUUVRVRrKmSFNMOj%2FNaRNawUoRdhdvpFJj7%2FpAkM%3D>, accessed 18 January 2020; Dave Johnson, ‘Russia’s Conventional Precision Strike Capabilities, Regional Crises, and Nuclear Thresholds’, Livermore Papers on Global Security No. 3, Center for Global Security Research, February 2018, <https://cgsr.llnl.gov/content/assets/docs/Precision-Strike-Capabilities-report-v3-7.pdf>, accessed 18 January 2020.

17 Russian Minister of Defence Sergey Shoigu quoted in Interfax, ‘Shoigu Discussed the NATO Implementation of a New Anti-Russian Military Concept’, 24 December 2019, <https://www.interfax.ru/world/689196>, accessed 7 February 2020.

18 Valery Gerasimov, ‘The Development of Military Strategy Under Contemporary Conditions. Tasks for Military Science’, translated by Harold Orenstein and Timothy Thomas, Military Review, November 2019, <https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Journals/Military-Review/Online-Exclusive/2019-OLE/November/Orenstein-Gerasimov/>, accessed 18 January 2020.

19 Johan Norberg, ‘Training for War: Russia’s Military Exercises 2009−2017’, FOI-R–4627–SE, October 2018, <https://www.foi.se/rest-api/report/FOI-R--4627--SE>, accessed 18 January 2020.

20 War on the Rocks, ‘Breaking Down Russia’s Vostok Exercise’, 25 September 2018.

21 Jeffrey Edmonds and Samuel Bendett, ‘Russian Battlefield Awareness and Information Dominance: Improved Capabilities and Future Challenges’, Strategy Bridge, 26 February 2019, <https://thestrategybridge.org/the-bridge/2019/2/26/russian-battlefield-awareness-and-information-dominance-improved-capabilities-and-future-challenges>, accessed 18 January 2020.

22 Michael Kofman, ‘It’s Time to Talk about A2/AD: Rethinking the Russian Military Challenge’, War on the Rocks, 5 September 2019, <https://warontherocks.com/2019/09/its-time-to-talk-about-a2-ad-rethinking-the-russian-military-challenge/>, accessed 18 January 2020.

23 Kristin Ven Bruusgaard, ‘Russian Strategic Deterrence’, Survival (Vol. 58, No. 4, 2016).

24 See Douglas Lute and Nicholas Burns, ‘NATO at Seventy: An Alliance in Crisis’, Harvard Kennedy School, Belfer Center, February 2019.

25 On Russia’s economic outlook, see International Monetary Fund, ‘Russian Federation: 2019 Article IV Consultation – Press Release; Staff Report', IMF Country Report No. 19/260, August 2019, <https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2019/08/01/Russian-Federation-2019-Article-IV-Consultation-Press-Release-Staff-Report-48549>, accessed 7 February 2020. On Russia’s ‘brain drain’, see John Herbst and Sergei Erofeev, The Putin Exodus: The New Russian Brain Drain (Washington, DC: Atlantic Council, 2019).

26 Michael Kofman, ‘Russian Hybrid Warfare and Other Dark Arts’, War on the Rocks, 11 March 2016, <https://warontherocks.com/2016/03/russian-hybrid-warfare-and-other-dark-arts/>, accessed 18 January 2020.

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