IV. Swarming Munitions, UAVs and the Myth of Cheap Mass

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Notes

1 For example, Ministry of Defence, ‘Joint Concept Note 1/17: Future Force Concept’, July 2017, p. 43; Frank Fresconi and Scott Schoenfeld, ‘ARL Experts Are on Target to Find Solutions for the Future Battlespace’, US Army, 9 February 2018, <https://www.army.mil/article/200409/arl_experts_are_on_target_to_find_solutions_for_the_future_battlespace>, accessed 16 February 2021; Valerie Insinna, ‘These Are the Five Areas Where the Air Force Wants to See an Explosion of Technology’, Defense News, 17 April 2019.

2 T X Hammes, ‘Expeditionary Operations in the Fourth Industrial Revolution’, MCU Journal (Vol. 8, No. 1, July 2017), pp. 82–103.

3 Harry Lye, ‘Future RAF Will Mix Crewed Fighters, UAVs and Swarming Drones: CDS’, Airforce Technology, last updated 14 April 2021, <https://www.airforce-technology.com/features/future-raf-will-mix-crewed-fighters-uavs-and-swarming-drones-cds/>, accessed 9 August 2021.

4 Mark Gunzinger and Lukas Autenried, ‘Understanding the Promise of Skyborg and Low-Cost Attritable Unmanned Aerial Vehicles’, Mitchell Institute Policy Paper (Vol. 24, September 2020).

5 Defence Synergia, ‘CDS Speech to IISS 31 March 2021 – Integrated Review’, 6 April 2021, <https://www.defencesynergia.co.uk/cds-speech-to-iiss-31-march-2021-integrated-review/>, accessed 29 October 2021. See also General Sir Nick Carter’s discussion of ‘sunset capabilities’ in HM Government and Nick Carter, ‘Chief of the Defence Staff, General Sir Nick Carter’s Annual RUSI Speech’, 5 December 2019, <https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/chief-of-the-defence-staff-general-sir-nick-carters-annual-rusi-speech>, accessed 29 October 2021.

6 Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance, ‘P-700 Granit/SS-N-19 “Shipwreck”’, 28 June 2018, <https://missiledefenseadvocacy.org/missile-threat-and-proliferation/todays-missile-threat/russia/p-700-granit-ss-n-19-shipwreck/>, accessed 5 March 2021.

7 Thomas Newdick, ‘Golden Horde Swarming Munitions Program Back On Target After Second Round of Tests’, The Warzone, 3 March 2021.

8 Author correspondence with MBDA subject matter expert, 8 March 2021.

9 Valerie Insinna, ‘Skyborg Makes its Second Flight, This Time Autonomously Piloting General Atomics’ Avenger Drone’, Defense News, 30 June 2021. See also Daryl Mayer, ‘AFLCMC Awards Contract for Skyborg Prototypes’, US Air Force, 10 December 2020, <https://www.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/2440755/aflcmc-awards-contract-for-skyborg-prototypes/>, accessed 18 February 2021.

10 Craig Hoyle, ‘Spirit Team to Fly LANCA Loyal Wingman Demonstrator for UK’, Flight Global, 26 January 2021, <https://www.flightglobal.com/defence/spirit-team-to-fly-lanca-loyal-wingman-demonstrator-for-uk/142126.article>, accessed 3 March 2021.

11 Greg Waldron, ‘Boeing Australia’s “Loyal Wingman” Conducts Maiden Sortie’, Flight Global, 2 March 2021, <https://www.flightglobal.com/defence/boeing-australias-loyal-wingman-conducts-maiden-sortie/142685.article>, accessed 3 March 2021.

12 Royal Air Force, ‘About the Typhoon FGR4’, <https://www.raf.mod.uk/aircraft/typhoon-fgr4/>, accessed 19 September 2021.

13 There is a similar phenomenon at play with loyal wingman-type UCAV autonomy requirements, as has been found by developers of driverless cars. Safe and predictable interactions are easier to programme between multiple automated vehicles than a mix of automated and human-controlled ones. See, for example, Rodney Brooks, ‘The Big Problem With Self-Driving Cars Is People’, IEEE Spectrum, 27 July 2017.

14 Fast Jet Performance, ‘SAM Dodging Over the Nevada Desert – Why Low-Level Flying Is Still Necessary’, 2015, <https://www.fastjetperformance.com/blog/sam-dodging-over-the-nevada-desert-why-low-level-flying-is-still-necessary>, accessed 9 March 2021.

15 See, for example, Northrop Grumman, ‘X-47B UCAS’, <https://www.northropgrumman.com/what-we-do/air/x-47b-ucas/>, accessed 9 March 2021; BAE Systems, ‘Taranis’, <https://www.baesystems.com/en/product/taranis>, accessed 9 March 2021.

16 For a detailed discussion of each, see Justin Bronk, The Future of NATO Airpower: How Are Future Capability Plans Within the Alliance Diverging and How Can Interoperability be Maintained?, Whitehall Paper 94 (London: Taylor and Francis, 2020).

17 Paul J Calhoun, ‘Gremlins’, DARPA, <https://www.darpa.mil/program/gremlins>, accessed 8 March 2021.

18 Craig Hoyle, ‘RAF Chief Reveals Combat Cloud, Swarming Drone Advances’, Flight Global, 15 July 2021, <https://www.flightglobal.com/defence/raf-chief-reveals-combat-cloud-swarming-drone-advances/144604.article>, accessed 9 August 2021.

19 Garrett Reim, ‘Golden Horde Collaborative Bombs Hit Four Targets Simultaneously in Test’, Flight Global, 26 February 2021, <https://www.flightglobal.com/fixed-wing/golden-horde-collaborative-bombs-hit-four-targets-simultaneously-in-test/142655.article>, accessed 1 April 2021.