The Euro Area: Does one currency fit all?

ABSTRACT

The sovereign debt crisis since the late 2000s in the Euro Area revealed that, in reality, there are two monetary unions in Europe: the core and the periphery. The core-north countries have sounder fiscal balances and lower inflation rates, whereas the periphery-south ones are more prone to higher inflation and public deficits. The principal aim of this paper is to explore which countries handle the nominal exchange rate of the euro. By doing this we will effectively challenge the statement ‘.one size fits all’ upon which the euro project was built. We used the real exchange rates of the initial 12 Eurozone members as an empirical instrument. Our evidence is based on the bivariate regression analysis and the Asymmetric Component GARCH (AC-GARCH) model. We discovered that the countries of the Eurozone core influence more the euro nominal exchange rate than the periphery ones. In addition, the euro is more vulnerable to the volatility shocks of the German and the French real exchange rates.

KEYWORDS:

• Volatility
• real exchange rates
• AC-GARCH
• linkages
• Euro Area 12
• EMU

JEL:

• C13
• F3
• F31
• G15
• G17
• G32

Acknowledgements

The authors thank two anonymous referees and the editor of the journal for their useful comments and suggestions that greatly improved this academic research.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.