Generational populism and the political rise of Robert Kyagulanyi – aka Bobi Wine – in Uganda

ABSTRACT

This article analyses the political rise of the Ugandan opposition leader, Robert Kyagulanyi, aka Bobi Wine, arguing that he has a deployed a novel type of generational populism – a mobilising political discourse which frames the struggle between ‘the people’ and ‘the elite’ in generational terms, defining the former in relation to their status as youth, and in antagonistic opposition to an elite, which is depicted as defending a gerontocratic political order. At a theoretical level, the article broadens political science’s conception of populism, by introducing a new subtype of the political phenomenon which demonstrates the importance of intergenerational dynamics in the construction of the discursive categories of ‘the people’ and ‘the elite’. While it argues that Kyagulanyi’s success demonstrates the potential of populism in African countries to electorally challenge incumbent regimes, by helping to build political coalitions across ethno-regional lines, incorporating previously excluded social groups into the political process, it concludes by stressing that Kyagulanyi’s political project has failed to offer any real ideological alternative to the neoliberal orthodoxy that has characterised President Museveni’s Uganda over the last four decades.

RÉSUMÉ

Cet article analyse l’ascension politique du leader de l’opposition ougandaise, Robert Kyagulanyi, alias Bobi Wine, en arguant qu’il a déployé un nouveau type de populisme générationnel - un discours politique mobilisateur qui encadre la lutte entre « le peuple » et « l’élite » en termes générationnels, en définissant le peuple par rapport au statut de jeunes, et en opposition antagoniste à une élite, dépeinte comme défendant un ordre politique gérontocratique. Sur le plan théorique, l’article développe la conception du populisme en science politique, en introduisant un nouveau sous-type de ce phénomène politique qui démontre l’importance des dynamiques intergénérationnelles dans la construction des catégories discursives du « peuple » et de « l’élite ». Alors qu’on soutient que le succès de Kyagulanyi démontre le potentiel du populisme dans les pays africains pour défier électoralement les régimes en place, en aidant à construire des coalitions politiques à travers les lignes ethno-régionales, en incorporant des groupes sociaux précédemment exclus dans le processus politique, on conclut en soulignant que le projet politique de Kyagulanyi n’a pas réussi à offrir une véritable alternative idéologique à l’orthodoxie néolibérale qui a caractérisé l’Ouganda de Museveni au cours des quatre dernières décennies.

KEYWORDS:

• Populism
• Uganda
• generational politics
• elections
• Laclau

MOTS-CLÉS:

• Populisme
• Ouganda
• politique générationelle
• élections
• Laclau

Acknowledgements

I would like to thank everyone in Uganda who helped me with this project, with special thanks to Derrick Wandera and Frederic Musisi for their exemplary research assistance. I also want to thank my team of research assistants in Colombia. Finally, I am grateful to all of those who have offered their helpful suggestions and insightful feedback on this paper.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.

Notes

1 By political society, Branch and Mampilly (2015, 21) refer to an urban underclass composed of ‘the unemployed, underemployed, informal workers, and even parts of the petty bourgeoisie’. In contrast to a professionalised, middle-class civil society, with its formalised relations to the postcolonial state and liberal pretentions, political society is subject not only to more intense forms of economic deprivation and insecurity, but also routinely experiences state power as an arbitrary and ‘predatory, violent force’ (Branch and Mampilly 2015, 33). As such, the varied political activities of this group tend to operate outside of formal legal and political realms.

2 This paper directly cites or draws upon a selection of 34 interviews among the five categories of informants; codes are used to ensure informants’ anonymity. Interviews were conducted in Kampala and over the phone during the pandemic.

3 The only exception to this is an interview conducted with Robert Kyagulanyi on 11 May 2021. An abridged version of this interview was published for the website African Arguments (Melchiorre 2021).

4 At the Tubonga Nawe launch party in October 2015, those same artists bowed before Museveni in a public show of deference and respect, at a ceremony in which the president committed to offering UGX400 million to support the music industry.

5 Popular homemade slogans included twebereremu (‘Get involved’), omusajja agenda (‘The old man is going’), and tolina kyotugamba (‘He has nothing left to convince us with’).

6 Some in the opposition remain sceptical of about how decisive Kyagulanyi’s influence was in Wadri’s victory (interviews 14/POL/PHO/2022; 11/POL/PHO/2022).

7 While the lack of reliable exit polls makes it impossible to statistically determine how much of Kyagulanyi’s electoral success can be attributed to his popularity among young voters, some evidence suggests that such a reading is plausible. In the 2021 election, Kyagulanyi thrived in the districts with the largest populations of registered voters between 18 and 30 years old. In the districts with four of the five largest populations of registered youth voters (Kampala, Wakiso, Mukono and Luweero) (Kaheru 2020), his average vote share of 72.74% was well above his national percentage (35.08%) and regional average for Central (64.26%), where these districts are located. While he lost narrowly to Museveni in Kasese, the district with the third-largest population of registered youth voters (Kaheru 2020), located in the president’s Western region, Kyagulanyi’s vote share of 45.04% was over 30% better than his regional average for Western (14.03%).

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Luke Melchiorre

Luke Melchiorre is an Associate Professor of Political Science and Global Studies at Universidad de los Andes in Bogotá, Colombia.