Prospective Memory Predictions in Aging: Increased Overconfidence in Older Adults

ABSTRACT

Introduction: This study investigated whether young and older adults can predict their future performance on an event-based prospective memory (PM) task. Methods: Metacognitive awareness was assessed by asking participants to give judgments-of-learning (JOLs) on an item-level for the prospective (remembering that something has to be done) and retrospective (remembering what to do) PM component. In addition, to explore possible age differences in the ability to adapt predictions to the difficulty of the task, encoding time and the relatedness between the prospective and the retrospective PM component were varied. Results: Results revealed that both age groups were sensitive to our task manipulations and adapted their predictions appropriately. Moreover, item-level JOLs indicated that for the retrospective component, young and older adults were equally accurate and slightly overconfident. For the prospective component, predictions were fairly accurate in young adults, while older adults were overconfident. Thus, results suggest that general overconfidence is increased in older adults and concerns both components of PM. Discussion: Findings regarding the conceptual differences between the prospective and retrospective components of a PM task, as well as the link between aging and metamemory in PM are discussed.

Acknowledgments

We thank Charlotte Caparaos, Sophie Consigny, Clara Delaissiaz and Pauline Lopez for assistance with data collection. Preparation of this manuscript was funded by a joint grant from the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF), the Agence Nationale de Recherche (ANR; France) to MK, CM, KS and CS. CM gratefully acknowledges the support of the Institut Universitaire de France.

Ethical approval

All procedures performed in studies involving human participants were in accordance with the ethical standards of the institutional and/or national research committee and with the 1964 Helsinki declaration and its later amendments or comparable ethical standards.

Informed consent

Informed consent was obtained from all individual participants included in the study.

Notes

1. Performance measures and predictions for the prospective and the retrospective component will be analyzed and reported separately. Given that previous studies suggest different patterns for the predictions of the prospective and retrospective components of the PM task (Schnitzspahn et al., 2011) and stronger age effects in the prospective compared to the retrospective component on a behavioral level (Mattli, Schnitzspahn, Studerus-Germann, Brehmer, & Zöllig, 2014; Zöllig et al., 2007), it seems important to distinguish them. Moreover, the measurement of the two components was not independent. Specifically, the recall component was contingent on the correct identification and response to a PM cue. Thus, performance in the two components cannot be compared directly from a conceptual, methodological and developmental point of view.

Additional information

Funding

This study was founded by a joint grant from the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF) and the Agence Nationale de Recherche (ANR; France).