A new fractional modified exponential curve model and its applications

Abstract

To improve the fitting and prediction accuracy of the existing modified exponential curve model, the fractional order accumulation and the fractional order difference are introduced into the process of the modified exponential curve modeling. First, the original data are processed by fractional order accumulation or fractional order difference, and then the corresponding modified exponential curve model is established. The optimal fractional order is determined by the particle swarm optimization algorithm under certain error criteria. Finally, the new model is applied to the rural resident tourism of China and is compared with the traditional exponential curve model and the modified exponential curve model. From the calculation results, it can be seen that the proper data processing can improve the accuracy of the model.

Keywords:

• Statistical prediction model
• fractional order accumulation
• piecewise summation method
• modified exponential curve
• the rural resident tourism

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Data availability statement

The data used to support the findings of this study are included within the article.

Additional information

Funding

This research was supported by the Research Foundation of Chengdu Normal University (No. CS19ZA12).