Mixing Grand Strategies: Trump and International Security

ABSTRACT

When a new President is elected in the United States, the first thing analysts do is define that President’s grand strategy; yet, naming Donald Trump’s grand strategy was a difficult task as his pre-election speeches often contradicted traditional US foreign policy norms. Trump’s ambiguous grand strategy combines two US foreign policy strategies: nationalism in the sense that his preference is for unilateral policies prioritising American interests, and a traditional foreign policy approach, as seen in the moves taken against China and Iran. Surprisingly, this grand strategy unintentionally contributes to cooperation in Eurasia, as actors like Russia, China, Turkey, India and the European Union continue to try to balance the threat from the United States instead of competing with each other, while smaller countries are reluctant to challenge the regional powers due to mistrust towards Trump.

KEYWORDS:

• Donald Trump
• US foreign policy
• grand strategy
• Eurasian security
• 
  nationalist traditionalism

Notes

¹ By ‘traditionalism’ hereafter I mean the use of leadership policies that American leaders have pursued since the beginning of the Cold War period. These policies have realist and liberal characteristics as they have tried to prevent the emergence of rival powers while mostly relying on international law, rules and institutions.

² Nikki Haley (2019) points out that in her negotiations with Chinese delegations in the United Nations, Trump wanted her to show him as “crazy”, ready to do anything to solve the North Korean problem. About meeting with Kim Jong-un, Trump said: “As far as the risk of dealing with a madman is concerned, that’s his problem, not mine.”

³ By the time the article was finalised in June 2020, a renewal of the military conflict between Chinese and Indian troops had taken place in Ladakh. The developments in the coming months will show if my assertions ultimately prove correct and if this tension is affected by the upcoming US presidential election at the end of the year.

⁴ This does not mean that Trump’s nationalism and foreign policy establishment’s traditionalism are always in conflict with each other. For example, on the Iranian issue, Trump’s foreign policy preferences are more in line with the traditional mindset, and he has provided a great level of support to both Israel and Saudi Arabia to balance Iran. As a result, these two countries are not as confused over Trump’s foreign policy as India or Japan.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Murat Ülgül

Murat Ülgül is Associate Professor in the Department of International Relations at the Karadeniz Technical University, Trabzon, Turkey.