Evolution of the largest glacier in Mexico (Glaciar Norte) since the 50s: factors driving glacier retreat^*

* Conceptualisation, Jorge Cortés-Ramos and Hugo Delgado-Granados; Data curation, Jorge Cortés-Ramos and Guillermo Ontiveros-González; Formal analysis, all authors; Investigation, Jorge Cortés-Ramos, Hugo Delgado-Granados and Guillermo Ontiveros-González; Methodology, Jorge Cortés-Ramos; Visualisation, Jorge Cortés-Ramos and Christian Huggel; Writing – original draft, Jorge Cortés-Ramos; Writing – review & editing, Hugo Delgado-Granados, Christian Huggel and Guillermo Ontiveros-González.

ABSTRACT

The evolution of Mexican glaciers (19° N) in the climate context is poorly understood despite these glaciers are important indicators of regional climate change. The detailed patterns of glacier recession since the Little Ice Age (LIA) have exacerbated during the past years and decades. Their relationship to local and regional climate change needs further analysis. This study compares the changes of the largest glacier in Mexico, Glaciar Norte (GN), on Citlaltépetl Volcano with temperature, precipitation, and surface energy balance variations that were considered as part of climate forcing. Area, length, elevation, equilibrium line altitude (ELA), and thickness were calculated from historical and satellite data sets and a high-resolution Digital Elevation Model. The results showed that during the 1990s, prevailing warm and variable dry conditions enhanced the glacier retreat, triggering the disappearance of Jamapa glacier tongue. The glacier length has changed at the rate of −20.7 m a⁻¹ since 1958. ELA varied from 4999 m a.s.l. in 1958–5228 m a.s.l. in 2017. A short period of snow accumulation from 2007 to 2009 was found when the annual temperature over GN showed a noticeable negative trend similar to that for the accumulated surface energy balance. The surface energy balance was conclusive on the response of GN to stability or accumulation periods. Finally, the long-term variation of temperature was the only factor found forcing the glacier retreat. Assuming that the retreat rate (−0.02 km a⁻¹) and climate tendencies remained constant (0.1°C/decade), GN could disappear towards the middle of the twenty-first century.

KEYWORDS:

• Mexican glaciers
• glacier retreat
• ELA
• surface energy balance
• climate forcing

Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank José Manuel Alvarez Nieves, Lorenzo Ortíz Armas, Mario Moreno, Javier Cortés Rosas, and all those who helped in several field campaigns; the anonymous reviewers for helpful improvements to the manuscript; M. Bricelj for editorial improvements; D. Fischer for editorial services; The National Institute for Statistics Geography and Information (INEGI) and the Ministry of Communications and Transport (SCT) in Mexico that provided all the aerial photographs of the Citlaltépetl Volcano. The National Meteorological Service (SMN-CONAGUA) in Mexico for providing meteorological data from its automatic weather stations; NOAA Earth Science Research Lab/Physical Sciences Division and the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection of Climate Research Division Environment Canada for making its datasets (NCEP/NCAR) and software (RHtestsv4) available to us online; Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Teconología (CONACYT) and Centro de Investigación Científica y de Educación Superior de Ensenada (CICESE-Unidad La Paz) for the program ‘Cátedras a Jóvenes Investigadores’ with Project number 497.

Geolocation information

Glaciar Norte on Citlaltépetl Volcano (5675 m a.s.l.) is located at 19° 02′ N; 97° 17′ W, 200 km east of Mexico City, Mexico and 100 km west of the Gulf of Mexico in the eastern part of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Notes on contributors

Jorge Cortés-Ramos is a researcher at Unidad La Paz of Centro de Investigacion Científica y de Educación Superior de Ensenada (CICESE). He is focused on extreme weather events, climate change and related to natural hazards. The study of high-mountain environments and cryosphere represents his first approximation to climate ecosystem vulnerability. His present targets are how the atmosphere, hydrometeorological extreme events and high-mountain systems respond to climate change. The effects on protected natural areas, environmental and socio-environmental systems represent his future research perspective.

Hugo Delgado-Granados is a professor at the Department of Volcanology and leads the Geophysics Institute at the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM). He is interested in volcano-stratigraphy, volcanic hazards, geochemistry and petrology. Volcano monitoring and application of new methodologies, volcano-tectonic and volcano-ice interactions are also of his interest. He is the national correspondent for Mexico in the World Glacier Monitoring Service.

Christian Huggel is a professor at the Department of Geography and leads the research group Environment and Climate: Impacts, Risks and Adaptation (Eclim), at Universitaet Zuerich, CH. His research focuses on impacts of climate change and related risks and adaptation in mountains and the cryosphere. He currently serves as a lead author for the 6th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Guillermo Ontiveros-González has dedicated himself to the study of active glaciers developing mass and energy balances, as well as novel instrumentation based on free hardware and software. He is also interested in the periglacial environment from the perspective of climate change and its influence on the socio-environmental system, hazard and risk analysis, as well as adaptation.

ORCID

Jorge Cortés-Ramos http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5752-1163

Data availability statement

1. All data used to produce the graphics can be requested via email to the corresponding author.

2. All data sets are available in the web sites and repositories to which reference is made in this manuscript.

Notes

* Conceptualisation, Jorge Cortés-Ramos and Hugo Delgado-Granados; Data curation, Jorge Cortés-Ramos and Guillermo Ontiveros-González; Formal analysis, all authors; Investigation, Jorge Cortés-Ramos, Hugo Delgado-Granados and Guillermo Ontiveros-González; Methodology, Jorge Cortés-Ramos; Visualisation, Jorge Cortés-Ramos and Christian Huggel; Writing – original draft, Jorge Cortés-Ramos; Writing – review & editing, Hugo Delgado-Granados, Christian Huggel and Guillermo Ontiveros-González.

Additional information

Funding

This study was partially supported by Direccion General Asuntos del Personal Academico Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico [grant number IN-113914] and Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologia [grant number 83633] foundations. Cortés-Ramos J. was a recipient of CONACYT (PhD Scholarship) and Centro de Investigacion Cientifica y de Educacion Superior de Ensenada Baja California internal project [grant number 691116].