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Abstract
Beginning with Colorado and Washington State in 2012, longstanding bans on the sale, possession, and use of marijuana for recreational purposes have been overturned in nine states and the nation’s capital. Consistent with the logic of routine activity theory and broken windows theory, critics of legalized marijuana argue that dispensaries are magnets for crime, attracting criminal offenders to the area with large sums of cash and valuable goods. The current study addresses this possibility by examining the effects of both medical and recreational marijuana dispensaries on yearly crime rates in N = 3981 neighborhood grid cells in Denver, Colorado, 2012–2015. Estimates from Bayesian spatiotemporal Poisson regression models indicate that, except for murder and auto theft, both types of dispensaries are associated with statistically significant increases in rates of neighborhood crime and disorder. The theoretical and policy implications of these findings are discussed.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.
Notes on contributors
Lorine Hughes, PhD, is Associate Professor in the School of Public Affairs at the University of Colorado Denver. Her research interests include youth street gangs, comparative criminology and theory testing, social networks, and animal abuse.
Lonnie Schaible, PhD, is Associate Professor in the School of Public Affairs at the University of Colorado Denver. His research focuses broadly on policing as a profession, especially the influence of identity and emotional labor, and on how features of place and situational factors contribute to crime.
Katherine Jimmerson is a recent MCJ graduate of the School of Public Affairs at the University of Colorado Denver. Her research focuses on police department investigative practices, law enforcement policy development, and human trafficking.
Notes
1 The Arizona Marijuana Legalization Initiative, Proposition 205, which would have legalized recreational marijuana, failed to pass in 2016. In November 2018, residents of Michigan and North Dakota will vote on a ballot measure to legalize recreational marijuana use by persons 21 years of age or older.
2 Anderson, Hansen, and Rees et al. (Citation2013) observed an 8%–11% decrease in traffic fatalities following legalization of medical marijuana, a finding they attributed to reduced alcohol consumption and the possibility that marijuana is more likely than alcohol to be consumed at home.
3 In 2016, Denver voters approved Proposition 300, which gives bars and restaurants the option to allow patrons to consume marijuana on-site, provided it is not smoked, it is supplied by the patrons themselves, and neighborhood support can be demonstrated.
4 Boggess et al. (Citation2014) focused on 75 of 78 officially-defined statistical neighborhoods in Denver. These units tend to be larger than the 144 census tracts in the city.
5 Findings from a recent study of marijuana consumers in California and Colorado (BDS Analytics, Citation2017) also shows them to be “more content with life and well-adjusted in society than those who steer clear of cannabis.” Compared with marijuana “rejectors,” consumers had higher mean incomes, education, employment, and life satisfaction and were more likely to have young children at home, engage in volunteer activities, and be physically, socially, and creatively active.
6 Using the tool to measure distances in Google Maps, we found 1000 feet to correspond to roughly three Denver blocks.
7 In 2015, which had the largest number of marijuana dispensaries in operation (n = 389), 131 grid cells had 1 retail marijuana dispensary, 11 had 2, 2 had 3, and 1 had 4. By comparison, 187 grid cells had 1 medical marijuana dispensary, 10 had 2, 5 had 3, and 1 had 4.
8 In most cases, we used a Bessel K model and adjusted parameters to visually match the models with the data.
9 No comparable data were available from any other publicly available source.
10 We suspect liquor establishments loaded highly with yoga studios, coffee shops, and fast food restaurants because of the strong craft beer culture in Colorado and laws prohibiting purchase of full-strength alcohol and beers in grocery stores.
11 Because past crime/disorder is expected to be positively associated with both marijuana dispensaries and future crime, the direction of omitted variable bias is expected to be positive. When the direct effect of marijuana dispensaries on crime/disorder is negative, as the effect of medical marijuana is estimated to be for murder, positive omitted variable bias will lead us to understate the true magnitude of the effect. When the direct effect of marijuana dispensaries on crime/disorder is positive, as it is estimated to be for all other measured offenses (and for medical/recreational marijuana dispensaries and murder), positive omitted variable bias will lead us to overstate the true magnitude of the effect.
12 Official arrest data for 2014 include noncriminal civil citations, resulting in over-reporting of marijuana arrests (Colorado Department of Public Safety, Citation2016).