Stochastic Optimization of the Jansen Potash Production and Logistics Chain

ABSTRACT

The Simplified Linear Integrated Capacity Estimate model (SLICE) enabled to optimize the production capacity of the Jansen potash project and quantify risks to production. The Jansen chain presented three modeling challenges: (1) there were many areas to model (mining, hoist, process mill, rail, port); (2) the chain was rather balanced in capacity; and (3) inventories between areas were small. SLICE met these challenges, delivering a distribution of 5,000 accurate production capacity values for the 5,000 input combinations that represented risks and uncertainties to the chain. Valuable insights about the shape, width, and mean of this distribution are discussed.

KEYWORDS:

• Models
• risk
• correlation
• mining
• simulation

Acknowledgments

The authors offer sincere thanks to Wood Operations Analysis Group of Bryan G. Monk, Sandra Fleming, and Keith Quan for the development of the SLICE model. The authors extend their thanks to the journal reviewers who provided valuable comments. The authors recognize BHP for authorization to publish this work.

Disclosure statement

The authors report no conflicts of interest. The authors alone are responsible for the content and writing of the article.