Positivism or Understanding? The Complexity of Analyzing the Objectives of Armed Opposition Groups

Abstract

The analysis of armed opposition groups is heavily tainted by gross categorizations and labeling. Using vague terms that reduce the objectives of such groups to a uniform binary of secessionist or reformist defies their ideational complexity, undermining the effort to gain a nuanced and in-depth understanding of their actual motives. A closer look into the Ogaden National Liberation Front in Ethiopia reveals the type of complexity we might expect to find in armed opposition groups’ objectives, and thus the problem with superficially labeling them to make for easy comparative analyses.

Keywords:

• armed opposition
• comparative politics
• heterogeneous ideas
• political objectives
• Ogaden National Liberation Front
• secession
• reform
• Ethiopia
• Somalia

Notes

1 Between 1990 and 2015, there have been approximately 630 armed conflicts in Africa. Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), http://ucdp.uu.se/.

2 Some longstanding opposition groups in the Horn of Africa, for example, which have been able to assume state leadership, such as the Eritrean People’s Liberation Front (EPLF) and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A), and those that have managed to confront the same regime for a long time, such as the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) and the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF), can be said to have kept their ideologies and objectives largely intact. However, when confronted with increasing pressure due to changing circumstances, some of their leaders have responded with defection, contestation for leadership, and infighting, and at times voiced other political objectives than the leaders of the original movement.

3 This can be observed when states target population groups to deal with armed opposition. For example, in Colombia the state sought to “other” sections of the rural population it associated with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), as Serbia did on ethnic grounds in Kosovo in its fight against the Kosovo Liberation Army, while Sudan engaged in this practice against the “southerners” to confront the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army, and Myanmar “othered” the whole Rohingya population to confront rebels. Similarly, in Ethiopia, blanket “othering” of entire ethnic nations or their sections has formed part of political practice to deter opposition groups.

4 This controversy owes in part to the claim that the ONLF seeks to liberate all Somali people in Ethiopia, while some see it as a factional movement representing only its narrow constituencies within the Ogadeni sub-clans. The popularity of the ONLF among Ethiopian Somalis has fluctuated over time.

5 The ONLF’s founding members included Abdirahman Mahdi, the Chairman of the Western Somali Liberation Movement Youth Union; Mohamed Ismail Omar; Sheikh Ibrahim Abdalla Mohamed; Abdi Ibrahim Ghehleh; Abdirahman Yusuf Magan; and the future first Somali regional president (1993), Abdulahi Muhammed Sa’adi—all leading members of the Somali opposition in the WSLF.

6 “Abdirahman Mahdi of ONLF: ‘Ethiopia is Boiling.’” Al Jazeera, May 7, 2016.

7 This was already apparent in the 1992 debates about the name and the capital of the Somali federal region, in which the Ogadeni majority played a key role.

8 There has been speculation about the UWSLF’s decision to agree to peace, with suggestions that it might have been a tactical maneuver. See, e.g., “UWSLF: A Genuine Truce for Peace or Tactical Maneuver for Surrender to Ethiopia?” Jigjiga Herald, July 1, 2018.

9 “Ethiopia ‘Kills 123’ ONLF Rebels and Surrounds 90 More.” BBC, September 15, 2010.

10 “Ethiopia Signs Peace Deal with Rebel Group.” Taiwan News, October 12, 2010.

11 The Oromo Region extends over some of the most central territories in Ethiopia that have favored revolutionary rather than secessionist agenda within the OLF. ARDUF’s stated objectives include an irredentist struggle to annex the territories of the Afar people across the border in Eritrea and Djibouti to the autonomous Afar Region in Ethiopia.

12 “Swedish Journalists Tell of Time in Ethiopia Jail.” BBC, October 16, 2012.

13 “News: Ethiopia, ONLF Sign Historic Peace Deal.” Addis Standard, October 22, 2018.

14 “Ethiopia Signs Peace Deal with Former Ogaden Rebels.” Al Jazeera, April 13, 2009.