How fast do apprenticeships come to a premature end? Insights into the factors that determine the speed of the process

Abstract

This study draws on data on dual apprenticeship training in Germany to investigate which factors determine how fast the decision to terminate an apprenticeship before its completion is taken and executed. Information on the speed of this process can help organizations improve their decision-making in taking measures aimed at preventing premature terminations. As the results of our probit regression show, the decision to terminate an apprenticeship early is likely to be implemented in less than two months if the sole initiator of the termination is the apprentice and the decision is made within the probationary period or during the first year of the apprenticeship. Our analysis also shows that dissatisfaction with the quality of training increases the probability of a swift termination. In contrast, when the reason is unsatisfactory performance on the part of the apprentice at the vocational school, the process of premature termination is likely to be significantly slower.

Keywords:

• Apprenticeship training
• premature termination
• small and medium-sized enterprises
• dual system
• human capital

Acknowledgments

We would like to thank Ingo Weller, Samuel Mühlemann, Thomas Zwick, Ralf Elsas, Tobias Kretschmer, Hans-Ulrich Küpper and the participants who contributed to the faculty research talk at the LMU, Munich, on 27 January 2016 for their helpful comments and suggestions.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1 Professional training in Germany may take the form of dual apprenticeship training, training at a vocational technical school or studies at a university.

2 The public sector comprises the federal and state governments as well as the Federal Employment Agency.

3 Throughout the entire article, we use ‘drop-outs’, ‘premature terminations’ and ‘early terminations’ synonymously. Whenever we refer to ‘drop-outs’, we do not necessarily imply an exit from the dual system.