https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3555-5113
![Sample our Politics & International Relations journals, sign in here to start your FREE access for 14 days]({"type":"image" , "src" : "/sda/5947/TOC-Subject-Sample-2021-Politics-International-Relations.jpg"})
ABSTRACT
Current dynamics in UCAV proliferation in the Middle East signal that combat drones have become key strategic enablers for state actors in the region, and are no longer seen as an optional asset. With the development of a multitude of indigenous UCAV projects, and the arrival of Chinese-made armed drones on the international market, military procurement in the Middle East has entered a new phase, in which possessing armed drone capabilities is becoming the norm. This article examines the operational and strategic considerations driving Middle Eastern states’ UCAV procurement policies, analysing those countries who have been focusing on armed drones for combat purposes and additional intelligence, surveillance, target acquisition, and reconnaissance (ISTAR) needs. The main drivers behind this trend are the operational and strategic advantages brought about by UCAVs, where the benefits related to cost, reliability, and operational risk mitigation are matched by the increased ability to project power that the platform allows, either through deniability or by making UCAVs available to proxies and allies.
Disclosure statement
Both authors declare there has been no conflict of interest in publishing this article.
Notes
1. UAVs are also commonly referred to as ‘drones’. This also includes the sub-category of armed drones, known as unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs).
2. New America Foundation, “World of Drones.”
3. Fuhrmann and Horowitz, “Droning On.”
4. Wills, Unmanned Combat Air Systems in Future Warfare, 17.
5. Horowitz et al., “Separating Fact from Fiction in the Debate over Drone Proliferation,” 41; Sayler, A world of proliferated drones, 24–26.
6. Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) Annex Handbook, ii–iii; Zenko and Kreps, Limiting Armed Drones Proliferation, 17–19.
7. Weitz, “Reforming US export control reforms,” 19.
8. Weingberger, “China Has Already Won the Drone Wars,” Foreign Policy. In April 2018, the Trump administration revised the US policy on the export of armed drones, but so far this reform has not removed the ‘strong presumption of denial’ rule for selling the more advanced systems, thus leading to a lack of concrete results. Trump, National Security Presidential Memorandum Regarding U.S. Conventional Arms Transfer Policy; Seligman, ‘Trump’s Push to Boost Lethal Drone Exports Reaps Few Rewards’, Foreign Policy.
9. Detsch, “Pentagon warns Middle East turning to China for drone needs”, Al Monitor; Manson, “Trump relaxes conditions over sale of US killer drones”, Financial Times.
10. Boyle, “The Race for Drones November,” 81.
11. “Is China at the Forefront of Drone Technology?,” CSIS ChinaPower.
12. Clark, “Uninhabited Combat Aerial Vehicles,” 22–27.
13. Bergman, Rise and Kill First, xxi; 455–60.
14. Boyle, “The Race for Drones,” 81; Wezeman et al. Trends in International Arms Transfers. SIPRI.
15. Bassiri Tabrizi and Bronk, Armed Drones in the Middle East: Proliferation and Norms in the Region, 16; Cordesman et al., Lessons of the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah War, 106–107; Issacharov, “Report: Hamas Arms Trafficker Killed in Sudan Air Strike,” Haaretz; How Israel Foiled an Arms Convoy Bound for Hamas, Time.
16. “Israeli Manufacturers’ Turkish UAV Contract.”
17. Farooq, “The Second Drone Age.”
18. Gauthier-Villars and Maslin, ‘In Libyan War, Turkey Takes Sides Against Mideast Rivals.”
19. Frew, Drone Wars: The Next Generation, 20; Wikileaks Cable #04ABUDHABI2113, “Shaykh Mohamed bin Zayed Rejects Unarmed Predator Proposal,” U.S. Embassy Abu Dhabi.
20. Jennings, “Algeria shown to be operating UAE-developed UAVs.”; Boyle, “The Race for Drones,” 84.
21. O’Gorman and Abbott, “Remote control war – Unmanned combat air vehicles in China, India, Israel, Iran, Russia and Turkey,” 9.
22. Mcleary, “Iranian Drones Now Hitting Rebel Targets in Syria.”
23. Borger, “US shoots down second Iran-made armed drone over Syria in 12 days.”
24. Turak, “Pentagon is scrambling as China “sells the hell out of” armed drones to US allies,”
25. Bassiri Tabrizi and Bronk, Armed Drones in the Middle East; “The growing appetite for armed drones in the Middle East.”
26. US Department of Defense, The Role of Autonomy in DoD Systems, 70.
27. Marcus, “China helps Iraq military enter drone era.”; Gordon and Schmitt, “U.S. Said to Rebuff Iraqi Request to Strike Militants.”
28. Delalande, “China’s Drones Are Taking on ISIS (And Here’s Why America Should Worry).”
29. Biggers, “UAE United 40 Block 5 at Test Airfield.”
30. United Nations Security Council, S/2017/466, 144.
31. Wikileaks Cable #10RIYADH159_a, “Saudi Arabia: Renewed assurances on satellite imagery.”
32. In February 2019, Saudi company Science Technology announced the launch of development program for a new UCAV platform. See “Science Technology launches program to develop heavy unmanned bomber.”
33. Minnick, “China Again Tries To Pierce Gulf Defense Market.”
34. Chan, “Chinese drone factory in Saudi Arabia first in Middle East.”
35. United Nations Security Council, S/2017/466, 144.
36. Page and Sonne, “Unable to buy U.S. military drones, Allies place orders with China.”
37. Gettinger, “Drone Bases Updates.”
38. Arreguin-Toft, “How the Weak Win Wars,” 103–5.
39. Boyle, “The Race for Drones,” 79.
40. Wills, Unmanned Combat Air Systems in Future Warfare, 29; and Fallows, “The Tragedy of the American Military.”
41. Plocker, The landscape of the Israeli economy, society and policy after 1200 days of Intifada.
42. Mutlu, “The Economic Cost of Civil Conflict in Turkey.”
43. Guzanski and Heinstein, “Saudi Arabia’s War in Yemen Has Been a Disaster.”; and Walsh and Kirkpatrick, “U.A.E. Pulls Most Forces From Yemen in Blow to Saudi War Effort.”
44. Heller, Christian H. “The Sinai Insurgency.”
45. Congressional Research Service, “Egypt: Background and U.S. Relations,” 27.
46. Kirkpatrick, “Secret Alliance.”
47. Boehler and Doyle, “Use by Iraqi Military May Be a Boon for China-Made Drones.”
48. Aboufade, “UAE fighter jet crashes in Yemen, 2 pilots killed.”; and Demerly, “Let’s Talk About The Photo of Chinese-Built “Wing Loong” Drone (Likely Operated by UAE) over Libya.”
49. Interview with Saudi military officer, June 2019; “Arab coalition pilot and assistant killed in helicopter crash in Yemen.”; US Office of the Under Secretary of Defense/Chief Financial Officer, Program Acquisition Cost by Weapon System, March 2014.
50. Interview with Turkish Undersecretariat for Defence Industries senior official, July 2011.
51. Guntay Simsek, “Ilk milli IHA kac paraya mal oldu?”
52. Kittner, “The Role of Safe Havens in Islamist Terrorism.”
53. House of Commons Defence Committee, The contribution of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles to ISTAR capability, 17.
54. Zenko and Kreps, “Limiting Armed Drones Proliferation,” 8–9.
55. Dobbing and Cole, Israel and the Drone War, 11–13; and “Precisely Wrong: Gaza Civilians Killed by Israeli Drone-Launched Missiles.”
56. Kirkpatrick, “Secret Alliance.”
57. An ISIS propaganda video shows an armed Wing Loong over Sinai – https://twitter.com/mahmouedgamal44/status/1063142938161672192.
58. Gurcan, “In struggle against PKK, Turkey takes flight.”
59. Woodhams and Borrie, “Armed UAVs in conflict escalation and inter-State crisis,” 1.
60. Zenko and Kreps, “Limiting Armed Drones Proliferation,” 8.
61. Nadimi and Knights, “Iran’s Support to Houthi Air Defenses in Yemen.”; and Bassiri Tabrizi and Bronk, Armed Drones in the Middle East, 21.
62. Interview with Saudi military officer, September 2018; https://twitter.com/Obs_IL/status/1151493541685800960.
63. Interview with Western senior diplomat, Abu Dhabi, May 2018; Interview with UAE security expert, Abu Dhabi, May 2018.
64. Shaif and Watling, “How the UAE’s Chinese-Made Drone Is Changing the War in Yemen.”
65. Wintour and McKernan, “Yemen: UAE confirms withdrawal from port city of Hodeidah.”
66. United Nations, Study on Armed Unmanned Aerial Vehicles Prepared on the Recommendation of the Advisory Board on Disarmament Matters.
67. Hicks et al., “Zone Defense,” 3–5.
68. Wirtz, “Life in the ‘Gray Zone’,” 107–9.
69. Woodhams and Borrie, “Armed UAVs in conflict escalation and inter-State crisis”, 11; Stohl, “Exercising Restraint? The New U.S. Rules for Drone Transfers.”
70. Soylu, “Turkey sold arms and equipment to UN-backed Libyan government, Erdogan confirms.”
71. Al-Atrush, “Libya Hit Haftar Forward Airbase After Receiving Turkish Drones.”
72. Kirkpatrick, “Secret Alliance”; Hubbard and Kershner, “Sinai Blasts Kill Up to 5 Thought to Be Militants.”
73. Black, “Israeli attack.”
74. United Nations Security Council, S/2017/466, 144.
75. Nichols, “U.N. report finds likely use of armed drone in Libya by Haftar or ‘third party’”.
76. United Nations Security Council, S/2017/466, 24–34.
77. Tabatabai, “Containment and Strike: Iran’s Drone Program.”
78. “Iran’s army denies direct involvement in Syria, speaks of ‘volunteers’”.
79. Nadimi, “Israel Once Again Strikes Iran’s UAV Base in Syria.”
80. Oryx, “Fortress T4: An Airbase at War.”
81. See note 79 above.
82. Dehghanpisheh and Stewart, “From Iraq to Yemen, drones raise U.S. alarm over Iranian plans.”; Horowitz, “Separating Fact from Fiction in the Debate over Drone Proliferation,” 36.
83. Brumfiel, “In Yemen Conflict, Some See A New Age Of Drone Warfare.”
84. “Saudi Arabia oil installations hit in drone attacks.”
85. Hubbard et al., “Two Major Saudi Oil Installations Hit by Drone Strike, and U.S. Blames Iran.”
86. Schmitt et al., “To Find Clues in Saudi Oil Attacks, U.S. Examines Missile and Drone Parts.”; and Rezaian, “The Saudi-Iran rivalry isn’t new, but it’s getting riskier by the hour.”
87. Interviews with UAE security expert and Western senior diplomat Abu Dhabi, May 2018; interview with Saudi military officer, September 2018.
88. Zegart, “Cheap Flights, Credible Threats,” 15–21.
Additional information
Notes on contributors
Francesco F. Milan
Dr Francesco F. Milan is Lecturer at the Defence Studies Department, King’s College London, based at the Joint Services Command and Staff College, UK Defence Academy. He is also Associate Fellow in Conflict, Security, and Development at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). His research focuses on violent non-state actors and civil-military relations. Between 2012 and 2014, he worked on defence procurement with IISS’s Defence and Military Analysis team.
Aniseh Bassiri Tabrizi
Dr Aniseh Bassiri Tabrizi is Research Fellow at the International Security Studies department of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI). Her research is concerned with security in the Middle East, with a particular focus on Iran and Iraq. She is the co-author of ‘Armed Drones in the Middle East: Proliferation and Norms in the Region’, a report published by RUSI in 2018.