The changing risk patterns of Plasmodium vivax malaria in Greece due to climate change

ABSTRACT

It has great importance to study the potential effects of climate change on Plasmodium vivax malaria in Greece because the country can be the origin of the spread of vivax malaria to the northern areas. The potential lengths of the transmission seasons of Plasmodium vivax malaria were forecasted for 2041–2060 and 2061–2080 and were combined. The potential ranges were predicted by Climate Envelope Modelling Method. The models show moderate areal increase and altitudinal shift in the malaria-endemic areas in Greece in the future. The length of the transmission season is predicted to increase by 1 to 2 months, mainly in the mid-elevation regions and the Aegean Archipelago. The combined factors also predict the decrease of vivax malaria-free area in Greece. It can be concluded that rather the elongation of the transmission season will lead to an increase of the malaria risk in Greece than the increase in the suitability values.

KEYWORDS:

• Resurgence
• risk
• bioclimatic variables
• transmission
• Plasmodium vivax

Acknowledgments

We acknowledge the financial support of Széchenyi 2020 under the GINOP-2.3.2-15-2016-00016 and GINOP-2.3.2-15-2016-00019 grants.

Disclosure statement

The author declare that they have no conflict of interest.

Additional information

Funding

I acknowledge the financial support of Széchenyi 2020 under the GINOP-2.3.2-15-2016-00016 and GINOP-2.3.2-15-2016-00019 grants.