Predicting Influenza Epidemic for United States

ABSTRACT

Influenza causes repeat epidemics and huge loss of lives and properties. To predict influenza epidemics, we proposed an infectious disease dynamic prediction model with control variables (SEIR-CV), which considers the characteristics of the influenza epidemic transmission, seasonal impacts, and the intensity changes of control measures over time. The critical parameters of the model were inversed using an adjoint method. When using the surveillance data of the past 15 weeks to invert the parameters, the epidemic in the next 3 weeks in the United States can be accurately predicted. In addition, roll predictions from 26 September 2016 to 27 September 2018 were implemented. The correlation coefficient between the predicted values and the surveillance values was greater than 0.975, and the overall relative error of the predictions was less than 10%. These good model performances demonstrated the practicability and feasibility of SEIR-CV for influenza and corresponding infectious disease prediction.

KEYWORDS:

• Influenza
• dynamic model
• prediction
• adjoint method
• parameter inversion

Acknowledgments

This study is supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China under grant 2017YFC0212804.