Putin's Power Revisited: How Identity Positions and Great Power Interaction Condition Strategic Cooperation on Syria

Abstract

This article investigates how Russian foreign policies are shaped in a two-level interactive social game. Russian foreign policies take their cue from ingrained identity positions articulated by the state leadership and negotiated in domestic debates, but they are also informed by interaction with other states. The article explains the shift in Russian policies away from pragmatic cooperation with the West in Syria from autumn 2015 onwards. While the Russian leadership initially sought such cooperation, the prominence of anti-Western discourse in Russia following the crisis in Ukraine as well as the West's rejection of Russia in this period spurred Russia to act independently in Syria.

Notes

1 ‘Russia Just Wants to be Friends’, Time, 26 October 2015.

2 The ‘Westerniser’ position has been given many different names in the academic literature: ‘Westerniser’ (Neumann 1996), ‘Atlanticist’ (Rahr & Krause 1995), ‘liberal’ (Hopf 2002) and ‘liberal Westerniser’ (Tsygankov 2016a).

3 This position has also been variously labelled in the literature: ‘statist’ (Tsygankov 2016a), ‘realist’ (Rahr & Krause 1995), ‘multipolar’ (Fedorov 2006) and ‘centrist’ (Hopf 2005).

4 Tsygankov (2016a, pp. 8–9) sees a core difference between Primakov's project, which was to rebuild the former Soviet Union and contain the United States through strategic alliances with China and India, and that of Putin, which has been to emphasise bilateral relations in Russia's periphery and develop a partnership with the United States to deter terrorism.

5 This position broadly speaking has also been given various labels, for example ‘civilisationist’ (Tsygankov 2016a), ‘Eurasianist’ (Rahr & Krause 1995), ‘romantic nationalist’ (Neumann 1996), ‘hard traditionalist’ (Fedorov 2006) and ‘conservative’ (Hopf 2005).

6 For instance, by James R. Clapper, the director of US national intelligence (Sanger 2016). See also ‘An Odd Way to Make Friends’, The Economist, 8 September 2015, available at: https://www.economist.com/europe/2015/10/08/an-odd-way-to-make-friends, accessed 22 March 2019.

7 Commenting on his country's persistence on this point, Russia's permanent representative at the UN, Vitaly Churkin, argued that ‘some countries were trying to involve the security council in regime change operations in Syria and we were telling them that it's not the business of the security council to go into regime change mode … . This is a fundamental difference and it's not the fault of the Security Council that this difference is there’ (Borger & Inzaurralde 2015a).

8 Russian officials immediately dismissed reports that Assad had killed more than 1,000 people using poison gas in an attack on rebels in Damascus in August 2013, noting that ‘it's obvious that we’re looking at a well-prepared provocation’ (Weir 2013).

9 Experts from Russian think tanks (the Russian International Affairs Council, the Center for Policy Studies, the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy and the Carnegie Center Moscow) interviewed in Borik (2013).

10 See for example Kremlin (2015b).

11 See for example references in Rosenberg (2012).

12 ‘Vstrecha s Presidentom Irana Makhmudom Akhmadinezhadom’, Kremlin.ru, 7 June 2012, available at: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/15590, accessed 13 March 2019.

13 ‘Russia's Syria Military Build-up is Self-protection—Kerry’, BBC, 23 September 2015, available at: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34329961, accessed 11 January 2019.

14 ‘Wherever US used Force Bypassing UN, Countries Suffered—Lavrov to RT’, Russia Today, 29 September 2015, available at: https://www.rt.com/politics/official-word/316860-lavrov-un-authority-isis/, accessed 11 January 2019.

15 ‘Putin Informed Obama of Plans to Strike ISIL in Syria at Meeting in New York—Lavrov’, Interfax, 14 October 2015, available at: http://russialist.org/putin-informed-obama-of-plans-to-strike-isil-in-syria-at-meeting-in-new-york-lavrov/, accessed 11 January 2019.

16 ‘Putin: Claims Russian Jets Killed Civilians in Syria Emerged before Airstrikes Started’, Russia Today, 1 October 2015, available at: https://www.rt.com/news/317188-putin-civilian-casualties-syria/, accessed 29 March 2019. See also Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Sakharova (MFA 2015a).

17 ‘Russia's Dangerous Escalation in Syria’, New York Times, 2 October 2015, available at: https://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/02/opinion/russias-dangerous-escalation-in-syria.html, accessed 11 January 2019.

18 ‘Russia's Lavrov Speaks Against “Demonizing” Syrian President’, RIA Novosti, 1 October 2015.

19 ‘MID RF: Rossiya gotova provesti v Moskve kontakty s “Siriiskoi svobodnoi armiei”’, TASS, 15 October 2015, available at: http://tass.ru/politika/2350874, accessed 25 March 2019.

20 ‘Medvedev ob operatsii v Sirii: my zashchishchaem Rossiyu ot ugrozy terrorizma’, RIA Novosti, 3 October 2015, available at: https://ria.ru/politics/20151003/1295838814.html, accessed 25 March 2019.

21 ‘“Which Side are You Fighting For?” Russia Blasts US for Refusing to Share Intel on ISIS’, Russia Today, 8 October 2015, available at: https://www.rt.com/news/317983-russia-us-coalition-isis/, accessed 11 January 2019.

22 ‘Putin: Russia has no Intention of Mounting Syria Ground Operation, Wants to See Political Compromise’, Russia Today, 11 October 2015, available at: https://www.rt.com/news/318298-putin-interview-syria-operation/, accessed 11 January 2019. See also MFA (2015b).

23 See, for example, interview with Colonel General Andrey Kartapolov, deputy chief of the Russian Armed Forces General Staff and head of the General Staff's Main Operations Directorate (Baranets 2015).

24 Participants included the Arab League, China, Egypt, the EU, France, Germany, Iran, Iraq, Italy, Jordan, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, the UK, the UN and the United States.

25 ‘Recurrent Western Attempts to “Educate” the East a Kind of Mania—Naryshkin’, Interfax, 21 December 2015, available at: http://russialist.org/interfax-recurrent-western-attempts-to-educate-the-east-a-kind-of-mania-naryshkin/, accessed 11 January 2019.

26 ‘Russian Calls not to Impose Values on Others Ignored by West—Putin’, Interfax, 20 December 2015, available at: http://russialist.org/russian-calls-not-to-impose-values-on-others-ignored-by-west-putin/, accessed 11 January 2019.

27 See also Oliker (2016).

28 ‘The Pentagon's Top Threat? Russia’, New York Times, 3 February 2016, available at: https://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/03/opinion/the-pentagons-top-threat-russia.html?, accessed 11 January 2019.

29 ‘Syria Crisis Plan: Cessation of Hostilities, Humanitarian Airdrops, Peace Talks Laid out in Munich’, Russia Today, 12 February 2016, available at: https://www.rt.com/news/332211-munich-lavrov-kerry-un-syria/, accessed 11 January 2019.

30 See also MFA (2016a, 2016b, 2016f).

31 Medvedev cited in ‘Interview of Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev to Sputnik News Agency’, Sputnik News, 12 February 2016, available at: https://sputniknews.com/interviews/201602121034628554-medvedev-sputnik-exclusive-interview/, accessed 25 March 2019; see also Kremlin (2016a).

32 ‘Doorstep Statement by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg Following the NATO–Russia Council Meeting’, NATO, 20 April 2016, available at: http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_129999.htm, accessed 11 January 2019.

33 ‘Putin: Foreign Foundations’ Meddling in Russian Education is “Extremely Dangerous”’, TASS, 26 April 2016, available at: http://tass.com/politics/872300, accessed 11 January 2019.

34 ‘Top Russian MP Praises Trump's Pragmatism, Readiness for Cooperation’, Russia Today, 26 April 2016, available at: https://www.rt.com/politics/340949-top-russian-mp-praises-trumps/, accessed 11 January 2019. See also Russian foreign policy experts referred in Bai (2016).

35 ‘Syria Conflict: Major Rebel Town “Seized” in Boost for Assad’, BBC, 24 January 2016, available at: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35395328, accessed 11 January 2019.

36 See also Kureev (2016).

37 ‘A Russian Orchestra plays Bach and Prokofiev in the Ruins of Palmyra’, The Economist, 6 May 2016, available at: http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21698422-russian-government-sent-one-countrys-top-orchestras-syrian-desert, accessed 11 January 2019.

38 The al-Nusra Front was a Salafist jihadist organisation in Syria affiliated with Al-Qaida.

39 ‘Russia and US Agree on Closer Military Cooperation in Syria, after Putin Calls Obama’, Russia Today, 6 July 2016, available at: https://www.rt.com/news/349715-putin-obama-syria-russia/, accessed 11 January 2019.

40 See for example comments by Andrey Kortunov, Director General of the Russian International Affairs Council, referred to in Osborn and Lowe (2016); Nikolay Pakhomov, a Russian International Affairs Council expert, in Pakhomov (2016); and Nikolay Surkov, Associate Professor in the Oriental Studies Department of Moscow State Institute of International Relations MGIMO-University (Surkov 2016a).

41 Sixty-nine percent of 1,600 respondents considered the United States a threat, down from 77% in February 2015. Polls by the independent Levada Centre; see ‘Number of Russians Viewing U.S. as Threat Hits 10-Year Low—Poll’, Moscow Times, 12 July 2016, available at: https://themoscowtimes.com/news/number-of-russians-viewing-us-as-threat-hits-10-year-low-poll-54544, accessed 11 January 2019.

42 See for example, the Head of the Russian General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, in ‘Moscow Quiet on Alleged Proposal for US–Russia Military Partnership in Syria’, Russia Today, 1 July 2016, available at: https://www.rt.com/news/349145-us-russia-partnership-syria/, accessed 11 January 2019. See also ‘Analyst Views US Calls on Russia to Halt Offensives in Syria’, Izvestiya, 3 August 2016; or Senior Research Fellow Vladimir Vasilyev at the Institute of US and Canada Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences who maintained that ex-CIA chief Morell's comments that the United States should covertly kill Russians and Iranians in Syria was ‘what the United States has secretly and surreptitiously been doing and most importantly what Washington will do if Hillary wins the presidential election’. See, ‘Ex-CIA Chief's Comments Reflect “What US is Secretly Doing in Syria”’, Sputnik, 10 August 2016, available at: https://sputniknews.com/politics/201608101044124847-us-russia-morell-syria/, accessed 11 January 2019.

43 ‘Diplomatic Tightrope: Will Russia Solve Yet Another Syrian Problem’, Sputnik, 1 June 2016, available at: https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201606011040592313-russia-syria-constitution-draft/, accessed 11 January 2019.

44 Support for this policy was evident in comments by the First Deputy Chair of the Duma Committee on Defence, Andrei Krasov, that after Shoigu's visit, Russia will increase its support for Assad's forces ‘to help cleanse Syria of different terrorists as swiftly as possible’ (Felgenhauer (2016). Well-known Russian journalist, Dmitry Kiselev, suggested that Shoigu's surprise visit to Syria was a message to Washington to stop trying to pressure Moscow over Assad (Osborn & Lowe 2016).

45 ‘Syria's Civil War: US and Russia Clinch Ceasefire Deal’, Al Jazeera, 11 September 2016, available at: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/09/syria-civil-war-russia-clinch-syria-deal-160910031517683.html, accessed 12 March 2018.

46 See for example, ‘West still Arming al-Nusra in Syria, Peace Almost Impossible—Russia's UN Envoy’, Russia Today, 25 September 2016, available at: https://www.rt.com/news/360571-unsc-syria-meeting-russia/, accessed 11 January 2019; or Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov in a conference call with reporters, reported in ‘Kremlin Says Worried That Terrorists Regrouping in Syria’, Reuters, 26 September 2016, available at: http://internal.uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/aerospace-defense/idUKKCN11W0ZJ, accessed 11 January 2019.

47 See, ‘Putin's Top Security Advisor Lays Out Vision of Global Security in 5 Easy Steps’, Sputnik, 1 November 2016, available at: https://sputniknews.com/interviews/201611011046936463-patrushev-exclusive-interview/, accessed 11 January 2019.

48 ‘Lavrov nazval “besplodnymi posidelkami” peregovory s SSHA po Sirii’, RIA Novosti, 14 December 2016, available at: https://ria.ru/syria/20161214/1483558170.html?mc_cid=e498c499b9&mc_eid=000deac4aa, accessed 26 March 2019.

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by the Norges Forskningsråd [grant number NUPIVARBAL].

Notes on contributors

Julie Wilhelmsen

Julie Wilhelmsen, Senior Research Fellow, Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, C.J. Hambros plass 2D, P.O. Box 7024, St Olavs plass 0130, Oslo, Norway. Email: [email protected]