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Abstract
Following the 2014 Ukraine crisis, Belarus and Kazakhstan appear caught in an alliance security dilemma characterised by intra-alliance threat and entrapment, as both are potential targets of militarised hybrid warfare by their vastly more powerful ally, Russia. Despite having sought foreign policy flexibility between the two increasingly opposed geopolitical camps of the West and Russia, Minsk and Nur-Sultan appear drawn further towards Moscow. Utilising their pre- and post-2014 national security documents, reinforced by an examination of their rhetoric and policies, this essay demonstrates how both countries reassessed their security environment in the wake of the annexation of Crimea and the initial war in the Donbas region.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).
Notes
1 The Warsaw Pact was a notable exception. Rather than functioning as a true alliance, it largely served the USSR's security interests of ensuring strategic depth and Soviet domination over Eastern Europe. This shows that some states may have little choice regarding alliance formation or operation.
2 Beckley (Citation2015) disputes this, but his case study was the entanglement of the US, a superpower, in the conflicts of its much weaker alliance partners. In the present cases, Belarus and Kazakhstan are far weaker than their alliance partner, Russia, and therefore it is questionable whether they could withstand similar pressures.
3 Snyder (Citation1997, p. 12) acknowledged the potential of unequal alliances, however.
4 Niou and Zeigler (Citation2019) considered alliances between rivals, but these were nearly always temporary coalitions intended to fight a specific war against an external enemy, rather than formal, institutionalised alliances. Their focus was not on the potential threats—in particular, between a great power and its much weaker allies—that this essay considers. Nonetheless, their insights into the sometimes fractious nature of alliances are useful.
5 Military doctrines set the contours of military structures and how the state will act in the case of armed conflict. National security strategies outline the international environment and identify interests, threats and opportunities. Foreign policy concepts and national security strategies often overlap, but the former typically provides more general guidance for how a state will interact with other countries.
6 This essay does not examine Belarusian or Kazakhstani fears of abandonment, as Vieira (Citation2014b) already examined that issue vis-à-vis Belarus. Kazakhstan seemingly exhibits no such concerns.
7 Later, the Eurasian Economic Union.
8 Except, perhaps, for the Baltic states, which do not easily ‘fit’ in the traditional doctrine of ‘near abroad’, nor do they correspond to postulates of policy of ‘far-abroad’ (Šleivytė Citation2009, p. 195).
9 ‘Rice: Belarus is “Dictatorship”‘, CNN, 20 April 2005, available at: https://edition.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/europe/04/20/rice.belarus/, accessed 18 March 2022.
10 ‘Vaennaya daktryna Rjespublіkі Belarus’, 2002, available at: https://web.archive.org/web/20190905061817/https://www.mil.by/by/military_policy/doktrina/, accessed 10 August 2020.
11 ‘Ob utverzhdenii Konceptsii natsional’noi bezopasnosti Respubliki Belarus’, 2010, available at: http://pravo.by/document/?guid=3871&p0=P31000575, accessed 10 August 2020.
12 ‘NATO's Relations with Central Asia’, NATO, 22 February 2016, available at: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_107957.htm?selectedLocale=en, accessed 18 March 2022.
13 ‘Қazaқstan Respublikasy syrtқy sajasatynyң 2014–2020 zhyldarғa arnalғan tұzhyrymdamasy turaly’, 2014, available at: https://adilet.zan.kz/kaz/docs/U1400000741, accessed 10 August 2020.
14 ‘Ob utverzhdenii Voennoi doktriny Respubliki Kazakhstan’, 2011, available at: http://adilet.zan.kz/rus/docs/U1100000161, accessed 10 August 2020.
15 ‘Vaennaya daktryna Rjespublіkі Belarus’, 2002, available at: https://web.archive.org/web/20190905061817/https://www.mil.by/by/military_policy/doktrina/, accessed 10 August 2020.
16 ‘Ob utverzhdenii Konceptsii natsional’noi bezopasnosti Respubliki Belarus’, 2010, available at: http://pravo.by/document/?guid=3871&p0=P31000575, accessed 10 August 2020.
17 The most prominent amongst these was Russia's formulation of ‘sovereign democracy’ (Lipman Citation2006).
18 ‘Ob utverzhdenii Konceptsii natsional’noi bezopasnosti Respubliki Belarus’, 2010, available at: http://pravo.by/document/?guid=3871&p0=P31000575, accessed 10 August 2020.
19 ‘Ob utverzhdenii Voennoi doktriny Respubliki Kazakhstan’, 2011, available at: http://adilet.zan.kz/rus/docs/U1100000161, accessed 10 August 2020.
20 ‘Ob utverzhdenii Voennoi doktriny Respubliki Kazakhstan’, 2011, available at: http://adilet.zan.kz/rus/docs/U1100000161, accessed 10 August 2020.
21 ‘Ob utverzhdenii Voennoi doktriny Respubliki Kazakhstan’, 2007, available at: https://adilet.zan.kz/rus/docs/U070000299_, accessed 10 August 2020.
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23 ‘Ob utverzhdenii Voennoi doktriny Respubliki Kazakhstan’, 2007, available at: https://adilet.zan.kz/rus/docs/U070000299_, accessed 10 August 2020.
24 ‘Ob utverzhdenii Voennoi doktriny Respubliki Kazakhstan’, 2011, available at: http://adilet.zan.kz/rus/docs/U1100000161, accessed 10 August 2020.
25 ‘Voennaya doktrina Respubliki Belarus’, 2016, available at: https://www.mil.by/ru/military_policy/basic/doktrina/, accessed 10 August 2020.
26 ‘Ob utverzhdenii Voennoi doktriny Respubliki Kazakhstan’, 2017, available at: https://adilet.zan.kz/rus/docs/U1700000554, accessed 10 August 2020.
27 Emphasis added. ‘Ob utverzhdenii Voennoi doktriny Respubliki Kazakhstan’, 2017, available at: https://adilet.zan.kz/rus/docs/U1700000554, accessed 10 August 2020.
28 ‘Belarusian Leader Issues Tough Warning to Moscow’, Associated Press, 29 January 2015, available at: https://apnews.com/article/3bf8ff26d81e4c249f6fa39796c4ad8c, accessed 10 August 2020.
29 ‘Under New Belarus Law, “Little Green Men” Would Mean War’, RFE/RL, 26 January 2015, available at: https://www.rferl.org/a/green-men-in-belarus-will-mean-war/26814048.html, accessed 11 January 2022.
30 ‘Lukashenka says no Need for Russian Military Base in Belarus, Praises U.S. Role in Europe’, RFE/RL, 6 November 2018, available at: https://www.rferl.org/a/lukashenka-says-no-need-for-russian-military-base-in-belarus-praises-u-s-role-in-europe/29585291.html, accessed 10 August 2020.
31 ‘Penal Code of the Republic of Kazakhstan’, Adilet, 3 July 2014, available at: http://adilet.zan.kz/eng/docs/K1400000226, accessed 11 January 2022.
32 ‘Bloger prigovoren k pyati godam tiur’my za separatizm’, Total.kz, 19 November 2015, available at: https://total.kz/ru/news/proisshestviya/bloger_prigovoren_k_pyati_godam_tyurmyi_za_separatizm_v_vko, accessed 15 March 2022.
33 ‘On the Concept of Cultural Policy of the Republic of Kazakhstan’, Adilet, 4 November 2019, available at: http://adilet.zan.kz/eng/docs/U1400000939, accessed 11 January 2022.
34 Emphasis added. ‘Kazakhstanskie Voennye Otrazili Deistviya Terroristicheskoi Gruppirovki v Uslovnom Gosudarstve’, Kazakhstan Ministry of Defense, 16 January 2015, available at: https://web.archive.org/web/20150121165839/http://mod.gov.kz/ru/index.php?id=1708, accessed 15 March 2022.
35 Although Preiherman was referring exclusively to Belarus in this quote, the same conditions apply to Kazakhstan.
36 There were precursors in 2012–2013, as pressures from Moscow to integrate began to build.
37 ‘Russia Chides Kazakhstan on US Cooperation’, Eurasianet, 12 June 2018, available at: https://eurasianet.org/report-russia-chides-kazakhstan-on-us-cooperation, accessed 11 January 2022. See also, Solovyov (Citation2018).
38 ‘Tokayev Took Part in Session of CSTO Collective Security Council’, Strategy 2050, 29 November 2019, available at: https://strategy2050.kz/en/news/tokayev-took-part-in-session-of-csto-collective-security-council/, accessed 15 March 2022.
39 ‘All Russian Citizens are Brothers for Belarusians, Lukashenko Says’, TASS, 10 January 2021, available at: https://tass.com/world/1243147, accessed 15 March 2022.
40 ‘Contingents of the CSTO Collective Peacekeeping Forces are Deployed to the Republic of Kazakhstan’, Collective Security Treaty Organization, 6 January 2022, available at: https://en.odkb-csto.org/news/news_odkb/kontingenty-kollektivnykh-mirotvorcheskikh-sil-odkb-napravleny-v-respubliku-kazakhstan/, accessed 15 March 2022.
Additional information
Notes on contributors
Thomas Ambrosio
Thomas Ambrosio, Department of Political Science & Public Policy, North Dakota State University, 8 Putnam Hall, Fargo, ND 58108-6050, USA. Email: [email protected]