The BRI and Sino-Indian Geo-Economic Competition in Bangladesh: Coping Strategy of a Small State

Abstract

This article explains the Sino-Indian geo-economic competition in Bangladesh in the wake of the former’s launching of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2013. Beijing intends to fund various large-scale infrastructure projects in Bangladesh under the BRI which has prompted India to make its own offer of economic assistance to counter the Chinese initiative. The Sino-Indian competition has created challenges and opportunities for Bangladesh. Dhaka is pursuing a balanced policy to manage the competition and advance its own interests.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.

Notes

1. The term ‘geo-economics’ lacks an agreed definition. However, this article uses the most common definition in which it is understood as ‘the use of economic tools to advance geopolitical objectives’. For a brief but useful analysis of the issue, see ‘What is Geoeconomics?’, Chatham House, at https://www.chathamhouse.org/system/files/publications/twt/WiB%20YQA%20Geoeconomics.pdf (Accessed on November 19, 2018).

2. Of course, competition was not inevitable, and they theoretically could opt for cooperation. But India and China could not overcome the historical baggage of their geo-political rivalry.

3. Sanjaya Baru, ‘China’s One-Belt-One-Road Initiative is not only about economics,’ Economic Times, April 15, 2017.

4. ‘India refuses to endorse China’s Belt and Road Initiative,’ The Hindu, June 10, 2018.

5. Indrani Bagchi, ‘India slams China’s One Belt One Road Initiative, says it violates sovereignty,’ The Times of India, May 14, 2017.

6. ‘Bangladesh, China sign 27 deals as President Xi visits Dhaka,’ bdnews24.com, October 14, 2016.

7. Jayanth Jacob, ‘India announces $5-billion line of credit to Bangladesh, 22 pacts signed,’ Hindustan Times, April 8, 2017.

8. Bangladesh is projected to grow at 8.13% in fiscal year 2018–19. See, ‘Bangladesh’s GDP growth to cross 8% for first time in FY19’, bdnews24.com, March 19, 2019; available at: https://bdnews24.com/economy/2019/03/19/bangladeshs-gdp-growth-to-cross-8-for-first-time-in-fy19.

9. India provided similar assistance to the Shanti Bahini guerrillas in the Chittagong Hill Tracts. For a discussion on tit-for-tat activities of Bangladesh and India, see Subir Bhaumik, Insurgent Crossfire: North-east India, Lancer Publishers, New Delhi, 1996.

10. A Bangladeshi court found that the director of a Bangladesh intelligence agency was involved in the transfer of arms to insurgent groups in Northeast India for which he was imprisoned. The incident took place during the tenure of the BNP-JI coalition government. See, ‘10-Truck Arms Haul: Trial begins with deposition of 3 witnesses,’ The Daily Star, November 30, 2011. Also see, Hiranmay Karlekar, ‘The Bangladesh Factor in India’s Security,’ The Pioneer, September 3, 2016.

11. Bhumitra Chakma, ‘Bangladesh-India Relations: Sheikh Hasina’s India-positive Policy Approach,’ RSIS Working Paper No. 252, Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, November 2012.

12. ‘Bombs in Bangladesh,’ The Telegraph, August 18, 2005.

13. L.J. Kavic, India’s Quest for Security: Defence Policies, 1947–1965, University of California Press, Los Angeles,1967; Bhumitra Chakma, ‘South Asia’s Realist Fascination and the Alternatives; Contemporary Security Policy, 30 (3), 2009, pp. 395–420.

14. Bhabani Sengupta, ‘The Indian Doctrine’, India Today, August 31, 1983, p. 20.

15. Devin T. Hagerty, ‘India’s Regional Security Doctrine’, Asian Survey, 31 (4), 1991, pp. 351–363.

16. It is noteworthy that Bangladesh is the easiest land route to connect India’s Northeast with the western mainland because of the difficult terrain of Meghalaya and the Siliguri corridor.

17. It should be noted that the AL was in power from 1996–2001, but the AL government could not make progress on several fronts due to its thin majority in parliament and the fact that it was a coalition government.

18. ‘Bangladesh opens transit for India, beginning a new era in relations,’ bdnews24.com, June 17, 2016.

19. Nava Thakuria, ‘Still under construction,’ The Statesman, May 13, 2018.

20. M. Kauland A. Chakraborty, India’s Look East to Act East Policy: Tracking the Opportunities and Challenges in the Indo-Pacific, Pentagon Press, New Delhi, 2016.

21. Wade Shepard, ‘Bangladesh’s Deep Sea Port Problem’, The Diplomat, June 7, 2016.

22. For a discussion on BCIM, see S. Singh, and Z. Cuiping, (eds.), BCIM: Economic Corridor: Chinese and Indian Perspectives, Adroit Publishers, New Delhi, 2017.

23. Richard Sisson and Leo E. Rose, War and Secession: Pakistan, India, and the Creation of Bangladesh, University of California Press, Los Angeles, 1991.

24. Harun ur Rashid, Bangladesh Foreign Policy: Realities, Priorities and Challenges, Academic Press and Publishers Library, Dhaka, 2010, revised edition.

25. Subir Bhaumik, no. 9.

26. Bhumitra Chakma, ‘Demilitarization: the Bangladesh Experience,’ in Rajesh Basrur and Kartik Bommakanti, (eds.), Demilitarising the State: The South and Southeast Asian Experience, S. Rajaratnam School of International Affairs, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, 2012, pp. 33–55.

27. Bhumitra Chakma, no. 11.

28. The general election in Bangladesh was supposed to be held toward the end of 2006, but disagreement between the two major political parties—the AL and the BNP—over the poll time government led to large-scale street violence which prompted the military to put pressure on the president to postpone the election and appoint a caretaker government. The military-backed government was in power for two years from 2006 to 2008.

29. ‘India, Bangladesh swap border enclaves, settle old dispute,’ The Hindu, April 3, 2016.

30. Mizanur Rahman Shelly, Emergence of a New Nation in a Multipolar World: Bangladesh,: University Press Ltd., Dhaka,1979.

31. ‘Bangladesh balances between big brothers China and India,’ East Asia Forum, June 2018.

32. During the visit of Chinese President to Bangladesh in October 2016, the Bangladesh-China relationship was upgraded from ‘comprehensive partnership’ to ‘strategic partnership of cooperation’.

33. ‘How India and China are vying for influence in South Asia’, The Times of India, March 21, 2018.

34. Mahfuz Kabir, ‘Expanding the Bangladesh-China trade frontier,’ The Daily Star, October 10, 2016.

35. Ishrat Hossain, ‘Bangladesh balances between big brothers China and India', East Asia Forum, June 6, 2018.

36. For an overview of various Chinese projects, see Reaz Ahmad and Rejaul Karim Byron, ‘China-Funded Projects: Dhaka seeks to speed up deals,’ The Daily Star, November 15, 2017.

37. ‘Dhaka Stock Exchange sells 25 pct stake to Chinese consortium,’ Reuters, May 15, 2018 at https://www.reuters.com/article/bangladesh-dhaka-stock/dhaka-stock-exchange-sells-25-pct-stake-to-chinese-consortium-idUSL3N1SM3ZX (Accessed on September 3, 2018).

38. Kiran Stacey, ‘Chinese investment in Bangladesh rings India alarm bells,’ Financial Times, August 6, 2018.

39. James Bennett, ‘India fears Chinese encirclement, citing “overwhelming” Sino presence in South Asia,’ ABC News, June 5, 2017 at http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-06-05/india-fears-chinese-encirclement/8591160 (Accessed on September 3, 2017).

40. Rakesh Sood, ‘Reviving ‘Neighbourhood First’, The Hindu, May 9, 2018; for an insightful discussion on India’s neighbourhood policy, see Smruti S. Pattanaik and Arvind Gupta, ‘Does India Have a Neighbourhood Policy,’ Strategic Analysis, 36 (2), 2012, pp. 229–246.

41. Sanjeev Miglani and Ruma Paul, ‘Exclusive: Bangladesh favours Japan for port and power plant, in blow to China,’ Reuters, September 10, 2015 at https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bangladesh-japan-china/exclusive-bangladesh-favors-japan-for-port-and-power-plant-in-blow-to-china-idUSKCN0RA1S620150910.

42. ‘Foreign Secretary in Delhi: Bangladesh support China’s One-Belt-One Road’, Dhaka Tribune, October 7, 2017.

43. ‘Dhaka defends Beijing’s Belt and Road Project,’ The Hindu, October 5, 2017.

44. Md Anwar Hossain, ‘Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Bangladesh,’ Daily Sun (Dhaka), July 14, 2018.

45. Bhumitra Chakma, ‘Sheikh Hasina Government’s India Policy: A Three Level Game?’ Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs, 2 (1), 2015, pp. 27–51.

46. A 3-member BNP delegation visited New Delhi for interaction with Indian think-tanks from March 3–10, 2018. Its objective was ostensibly to persuade the Indian government to help hold free and fair general elections in Bangladesh. A JP delegation led by its chairperson H.M. Ershad also paid a 4-day visit to New Delhi in July 2018. Similarly, AL General Secretary Obaidul Quader led a 19-member delegation to India in April 2018.

47. ‘Bangladesh PM defends decision to buy two Chinese submarines’, The Times of India, July 13, 2017.

48. Sri Lanka fell into a Chinese debt trap for which it had to lease the Hambantota Port for 99 years to a Chinese company in the south of the country which overlooks the Indian Ocean and carries considerable strategic importance. On this, see ‘How China got Lanka cough up Hambantota,’ The Times of India, June 27, 2018.

49. ‘Myanmar scales back Chinese-backed port project over debt fears,’ The Guardian, August 2, 2018.

50. ‘Malaysia’s Mahatir cancels China-backed rail, pipeline projects,’ Reuters, August 21, 2018 at https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-malaysia/malaysias-mahathir-cancels-china-backed-rail-pipeline-projects-idUSKCN1L60DQ. (Accessed on March 19, 2019).

51. S Akbar Zaidi, ‘Has China taken over Pakistan?’, The News on Sunday, June 18, 2017; Mushtaq Rajpar, ‘Will PTI revisit CPEC?’, The News International, September 8, 2018.

52. Inam Ahmed, ‘Debt trap?’, The Daily Star, September 4, 2018.

Additional information

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Bhumitra Chakma

Dr Bhumitra Chakma is Senior Lecturer, Director of the South Asia Project and Programme Director for BA Politics and International Relations at the Faculty of Business, Law and Politics, University of Hull, UK. Views expressed are personal.