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ABSTRACT
Pakistan’s largest donor has been the United States of America, granting around $ 70 bn in aid. In 2015, China, as part of its One Belt One Road global ambitions, promised Pakistan $ 46 bn (since revised to $ 60 bn), for a road running from its border to the port of Gwadar. The China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), is being seen as a ‘fate-changer’ for Pakistan. CPEC could change Pakistan’s fate in more ways than one; this article explores the domestic and regional consequences of China’s involvement in Pakistan, and what this will mean for South Asia and for India.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.
Notes
1. This article draws on and adapts an earlier version based on a Lecture delivered in Kolkata on June 9, 2017, in an event organised by the Mahanirban Calcutta Research Group (MCRG) and the Rosa Luxemburg Stiftung (RLS), partially published in The News on Sunday, Lahore, June 18, 2018, http://tns.thenews.com.pk/china-taken-pakistan-cpec/#.W20cdfZuKM9
2. S Akbar Zaidi, ‘Who benefits from US aid to Pakistan?’, Economic and Political Weekly, 46 (32), 2011; and, S Akbar Zaidi, ‘The Death Wish in Pakistan’s Aid Dependence’, Current History, 118 (807), April 2019.
3. Reuters, ‘U.S.’ Pompeo warns against IMF bailout for Pakistan that aids China’, July 31, 2018, https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-imf-pakistan/u-s-pompeo-warns-against-imf-bailout-for-pakistan-that-aids-china-idUKKBN1KK2G5
4. Banyan, ‘Massive Chinese Investment is a Boon for Pakistan, The Economist, London, September 9, 2017
5. This historical narrative draws upon Nasir Jamal, ‘ Mother China: A ‘Chinese revolution’ sweeps across Pakistan’, Herald, Karachi, August 2015.
6. Sunil Khilnani, ‘In 1971, a Genocide Took Place. Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger Did Nothing. Intentionally. The lost history of one of our lowest moments ‘, The New Republic, November 10, 2013. https://newrepublic.com/article/115435/gary-basss-blood-telegram-reviewed-sunil-khilnani
7. Nasir Jamal, ‘ Mother China: A ‘Chinese revolution’ sweeps across Pakistan’, Herald, Karachi, August 2015.
8. Ibid.
9. ‘China-Pakistan economic partnership’, Business Recorder, Karachi, August 7, 2018, emphasis added, https://fp.brecorder.com/2018/08/20180807397336/
10. Anjum Altaf, ‘CPEC: The case for full disclosure’, Dawn, Karachi, May 15, 2017.
11. Khurram Husain, ‘CPEC master plan revealed’, Dawn, Karachi, May 15, 2017. Much of my paper on what CPEC constitutes is based on this report.
12. Dawn, Perspectives: The CPEC Summit Karachi, Dawn, Karachi, May 22, 2018, henceforth Perspectives.
13. Long Term Plan, Perspectives.
14. Ibid.
15. ‘Sino-isation of farming sector’, Business Recorder, Karachi, January 2, 2017.
16. Chinese Ambassador Yao Jing, Perspectives.
17. Interview with Ahsan Iqbal, Federal Minister for Planning and Development, in The News on Sunday, Karachi, May 28, 2017.
18. Shabbir Choudhry, ‘CPEC and Balochistan’, London, April 22, 2017. http://drshabirchoudhry.blogspot.com/2017/04/cpec-and-balochistan-dr-shabir-choudhry.html
19. Maria Abi-Habib, ‘How China Got Sri Lanka to Cough Up a Port’, New York Times, New York, June 26, 2018.
20. Nasir Jamal, ‘The cost of CPEC’, Dawn, Karachi, March 12, 2017.
21. Nasir Jamal, ‘ Mother China: A ‘Chinese revolution’ sweeps across Pakistan’, Herald, Karachi, August 2015.
22. Mushahid Husain, Perspectives.
23. Aasim Zafar Khan, ‘The Chinese have arrived’, The News on Sunday, Karachi, May 28, 2017.
24. Mushahid Husain, Perspectives
25. Ibid.
26. Ibid.
27. Sohail Sarfaraz, ‘Cost structures upset: certain Chinese firms enjoying major tax exemptions: CCP’, Business Recorder, Karachi, July 13, 2018.
28. Shabbar Zaidi, Perspectives.
29. Nasir Jamal, ‘The cost of CPEC’, Dawn, Karachi, March 12, 2017.
30. Ibid.
31. Financial Times, ‘China takes ‘project of the century’ to Pakistan’, London, May 17, 2017.
32. Khurram Husain, ‘Sighting Land’, Dawn, Karachi, March 23, 2017.
33. Maria Abi-Habib, ‘How China Got Sri Lanka to Cough Up a Port’, New York Times, New York, June 26, 2018.
34. Clearly, numerous other possibilities which would affect the political economy of Pakistan, having regional, provincial, ethnic, institutional and class repercussions, also exist, but such speculation and suggestions would need to wait till far more details about CPEC are made available, as well as when there is more evidence about how and what CPEC is actually changing, the great ‘fate changer’ that it is perceived to be.
35. ‘A Plan for Digital Future’, Perspectives.
36. Quoted in the Financial Times, ‘China takes ‘project of the century’ to Pakistan’, London, May 17, 2017.
37. Dawn, October 18, 2016.
38. Ahsan Iqbal, in Perspectives.
39. Ikram Sehgal, ‘The CPEC Story’, Business Recorder, Karachi, June 29, 2018.
40. Mushahid Hussain, in Perspectives.
41. Ibid
42. This is just a tiny selection of thoughts expressed by senior members of the Government of Pakistan at the CPEC Summit 2018.
43. Maria Abi-Habib, ‘Pakistan’s Military Has Quietly Reached Out to India for Talks’, New York Times, September 4, 2018.
Additional information
Notes on contributors
S. Akbar Zaidi
Dr. S. Akbar Zaidi is a Karachi-based political economist. He teaches at Columbia University and at the Institute of Business Administration (IBA) in Karachi. The views expressed are personal.