Modelling land use/cover change to assess future urban sprawl in Romania

Abstract

The current paper aims at assessing future urban sprawl in Romania based on predicted land use/cover change (2007–2050) simulated using CLUE-S model (the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent) and CORINE Land Cover (CLC) database. Given the regional particularities of land use/cover change, the CLUE-S model was applied for each Development Region of Romania (NUTS 2 level). The authors analysed various biophysical and socio-economic explanatory variables associated with the current patterns of urban expansion and assessed future urban sprawl based on historical built-up expansion. The model shows increasing built-up areas mainly in relation to the decreasing in agricultural lands, especially inside and outside the cities limits, with significant differences at the regional level. The results provide support for the decision-makers and local communities in promoting less consumption of land resource and the protection of the environment.

Keywords:

• Urban sprawl
• prediction
• CLUE-S model
• CLC database
• development region
• Romania

Acknowledgements

The current research was carried out under the project: “Geographical study of the man-environment relationships in the Romanian Plain” made under the research plan of the Institute of Geography, Romanian Academy.

The authors would like to thank the IVM Institute for Environmental Studies (http://www.ivm.vu.nl/en/Organisation/departments/spatial-analysis-decision-support/Clue) for its support for the full CLUE soft version and the European Environment Agency (Copernicus Land Monitoring Service) for the provision of CLC database (https://land.copernicus.eu/pan-european/corine-land-cover/view) and of EU-Hydro River Network database (https://land.copernicus.eu/pan-european/satellite-derived-products/eu-hydro).

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Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.