Spatial flood susceptibility prediction in Middle Ganga Plain: comparison of frequency ratio and Shannon’s entropy models

Abstract

This work focuses on comparing results of flood susceptibility modelling in the part of Middle Ganga Plain, Ganga foreland basin. Following inclusivity rule, 12 major flood explanatory factors including a new one, geomorphology, have been utilized. Out of 1000 randomly generated flood-points from 2008 Landsat 5 TM image derived flood polygon, 70% have been utilized for the training purpose of Shannon’s entropy (SE) model and 30% for area under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) method of validation of both, SE and frequency ratio (FR), models. Result from FR shows that the contributions of specific classes of different explanatory factors to flooding susceptibility vary whereas the SE model suggests that geomorphology is the most contributing factor. The AUROC curve for SE (0.90) was better than that for FR (0.85). Hence, the SE model predicts flood-susceptible areas more accurately than the multivariate statistical model FR in the study area.

Keywords:

• Flood susceptibility
• frequency ratio
• Shannon’s entropy
• model comparison
• Middle Ganga Floodplain
• India

Acknowledgements

The first author, Aman Arora, is grateful to the Department of geography, JMI for allowing him to use GIS lab for the purpose of analysis. This work is part of Aman Arora’s Ph.D. dissertation. The invaluable comments and suggestions by reviewers have helped the authors’ a lot to improve the quality of MS. We are sincerely thankful to the reviewers.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.