COVID-19 pandemic hazard–risk–vulnerability analysis: a framework for an effective Pan-India response

Abstract

This study evaluated the COVID-19 risk considering positive cases (as a hazard) and the demographic structure (as a socio-economic vulnerability) at districts scale across India using fuzzy analytical hierarchical process and geospatial modelling. Despite the fact that the high and very high COVID-19 hazard was observed in a limited area (14.2%, 233 districts), the proportion of high to very high COVID-19 risk was evident in larger regions (42.5%, 575 districts). A moderate to very high socio-economic vulnerability was recorded in major parts of the country (60.0%, 557 districts), while the districts with megacities had been severely affected due to the more complex urban and social systems. The study highlights the zones under high COVID-19 hazard and its possible linkages with vulnerability and risk at district scales in India that may effectively support emergency preparedness and response mechanisms during the different waves of the pandemic.

Keywords:

• COVID-19 hazard
• social-economic vulnerability
• COVID-19 risk
• fuzzy AHP
• GIS modelling

Acknowledgments

Authors are very thankful to the Editor and anonymous reviewers for providing insightful comments for the manuscript. The authors wish to acknowledge the efforts of the Ministry of Health Family and Welfare (MoHFW), Government of India for providing updated information about the COVID-19 cases in India on their online portal and the Census of India (CoI) for archiving population datasets publicly. AK, PS, and MLK acknowledge the financial support provided by the Department of Biotechnology, Ministry of Science & Technology, Government of India in the form of an R&D project (grant number BT/PR12899/NDB/39/506/2015 dt. 20/06/2017). AD acknowledges the support of the Shastri Indo-Canadian Institute’s Shastri Research Student Fellowship under the supervision of MLK.

Data availability statement

The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author, upon reasonable request.