On the Origins of Econometrics in Australia. The Contributions of Maurice Belz and Robert W. James

Abstract

In the second half of the 1930s Maurice Belz, a senior lecturer in mathematics at the University of Melbourne, and Robert W. James, a master’s student in economics at the same university, accomplished a remarkable achievement: they published three articles in Econometrica. These publications were the result of their explorations into the study of economic questions by means of statistical and mathematical methods. Both Belz and James travelled to Europe to get acquainted with leading econometricians and to present their work at the meetings of the Econometric Society.

In this paper I focus on the contributions to econometrics of these largely forgotten pioneers. Using archival documents from the University of Melbourne and from other sources, I reconstruct how Belz and James became interested in econometric research and wrote their first papers on econometrics. I also provide evidence on their contacts in Europe, with Ragnar Frisch as a pivotal figure.

World War II put an end to their collaboration and to their econometric research. Belz pursued his academic career at the University of Melbourne, where he was promoted to Foundation Professor of Statistics in 1955. James completely abandoned economics and turned to meteorology. During the war he served in the British army. After the war he returned to Australia, where he worked for some time in the meteorological division of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) in Melbourne.

JEL CLASSIFICATION CODE:

• B23

Notes

Notes

Acknowledgements

I thank Philip Clarke for drawing my attention to the first Australian publications in Econometrica, Olav Bjerkholt for his expert advice on the correspondence of Ragnar Frisch, and the staff at the Archives of the University of Melbourne and the Tinbergen Archive of the University Library of Erasmus University Rotterdam for their assistance. I am also grateful to Robert Dixon, Alison Harcourt, Roselinde Kessels, Peter Lloyd, Alex Millmow, Anders Persson, Fabio Petri and Ross Williams, who were so kind to provide comments and observations on a previous version of the paper, and to Daniele Besomi, who shared one of his papers on Kalecki. Moreover, I have benefited from comments by participants of the 16th Annual STOREP Conference at the University of Siena and of the 32nd HETSA Conference at the University of Sydney, and from the remarks of an anonymous reviewer. I am the only one responsible for any errors in the paper. I dedicate this article to the memory of Olav Bjerkholt, who sadly passed away while I was correcting the proof of the paper.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Archival material

Erasmus University Rotterdam, University Library, Jan Tinbergen Archive:

• Letters from Maurice Belz to Jan Tinbergen (10 October 1932, inventory number NL-RtEUR_TBCOR01_002B014; 10 November 1932, inventory number NL-RtEUR_TBCOR01_002B013; 22 July 1937, inventory number NL-RtEUR_TBCOR01_007B001)

• Letters from R.W. James to Jan Tinbergen (1 January 1938, inventory number NL-RtEUR_TBCOR01_008J004; 15 February 1938, inventory number NL-RtEUR_TBCOR01_008J005; 12 November 1938, inventory number NL-RtEUR_TBCOR01_008J002; 14 December 1938, inventory number NL-RtEUR_TBCOR01_008J003)

National Library of Norway, Oslo, The Manuscripts Collection:

• Letters from Maurice Belz to Ragnar Frisch (Brevsamling 761 A)

• Letters from R.W. James to Ragnar Frisch (Brevsamling 761 A)

• Letters from Ragnar Frisch to Maurice Belz (Brevsamling 761 B)

• Letters from Ragnar Frisch to R.W. James (Brevsamling 761 B)

University of Melbourne Archives:

• University of Melbourne, Student Administration (Formerly Student Records) [1855–1957] (UMA Collection Reference Number 1988.0051)

• Maurice Henry Belz Papers (UMA Collection Reference Number 1995.0069)

• University of Melbourne, Faculty of Economics and Commerce, Douglas Copland Papers (UMA Collection Reference Number 1963.0028, Rockefeller Files, Boxes 127–128)

• University of Melbourne Calendar 1935 (https://digitised-collections.unimelb.edu.au/handle/11343/23404)

• University of Melbourne Calendar 1938 (https://digitised-collections.unimelb.edu.au/handle/11343/23407)

Registry of Births, Deaths and Marriages Victoria, State of Victoria, Australia:

• Birth certificate of Robert William James (Registration number 4700/1912)

Notes

1 It should be noted that throughout this article I use the term ‘econometrics’ in a wide sense, including what we now call ‘mathematical economics’. On the changing conception of econometrics, see Bjerkholt and Dupont (2010).

2 I use the following abbreviations to refer to unpublished correspondence: DCP: Douglas Copland Papers; JTL: Jan Tinbergen Letters; MBP: Maurice Henry Belz Papers; RFL: Ragnar Frisch Letters. The references at the end provide full details.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Guido Erreygers

Guido Erreygers obtained a PhD in Economics from the University of Paris-Nanterre, and is Professor at the Department of Economics of the University of Antwerp. His research focuses on socioeconomic inequality of health, history of economic thought and linear systems of production.