The Impact of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons: The Crucial Role of the European NATO Allies

Abstract

This article makes the argument that the role of the European NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) allies, and especially the non-nuclear weapon states (NNWS) under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), may and should play a key role in the future of nuclear disarmament. Once the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) is signed and ratified by more or less 100 NNWS, mostly from the Global South, it will be up to the allied NNWS to make up their mind about their role vis-à-vis nuclear disarmament. Will they continue to behave as protégés by (and in some way also protectors of) the nuclear-armed states and break the disarmament process further, or will they shake off the nuclear “protection” in the interest of making progress toward a world without nuclear weapons? This article zooms in on the European NATO allies in particular. The TPNW can and will be used to put pressure on the European NATO allies to switch sides, and it can, on its turn, be used by the European NATO allies to stigmatize the nuclear-armed states in order to make progress in the direction of nuclear elimination. The article starts by reviewing the origins and objectives of the TPNW. In the next section, its impact will be scrutinized. We then turn to the current and possible future role of the European NATO allies.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

I would like to thank the editors of the special issue for their comments.

DISCLOSURE STATEMENT

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1 As of November 2023. Data available at https://www.icanw.org/partners. Accessed on 21 November 2023.

3 Data available at https://www.icanw.org/signature_and_ratification_status. Accessed on 2 March 2024.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Tom Sauer

Tom Sauer is Professor in International Politics at the Department of Politics at the Universiteit Antwerpen (Belgium). Sauer is specialized in international security, and more in particular in nuclear arms control, proliferation, and disarmament. He has published ten books (monographs and edited books), dozens of academic articles in journals like International Security, Survival, Contemporary Security Policy, European Security, Journal of Strategic Studies, The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Third World Quarterly, Asian Affairs, Nonproliferation Review, Arms Control Today, Peace Review, Global Change, Peace & Security, Global Politics, and more than 250 opinion articles. His latest co-edited book (with Yoichrio Sato and Elena Atanassova-Cornelis) is titled Alliances in Asia and Europe: The Evolving Indo-Pacific Strategic Context and Inter-regional Alignments (Routledge, 2023). Email: [email protected]