Implications of Unstable Trends in Marriage, Birth, and Divorce

ABSTRACT

Using birth, marriage, and divorce data from the U.S. Census, this study examines the stability in trends between 1920 and 2008. Our investigation substantiates the reactive nature of family trends to any intervention or change in its environment. We find that changes in family trends, which might have been initiated by changes in policies or other interventions, are permanent and do not fade away by reversing policies or interventions. Hence, family and consumer scientists, policymakers, and practitioners must explicitly allow for unstable trends when researching or targeting the dynamics of birth, marriage, and divorce, and prescribing interventions that they view as stabilizers of family dynamics.

KEYWORDS:

• Divorce
• fertility
• marriage
• policy
• trend

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.