Profiling Readmissions Using Hidden Markov Model - the Case of Congestive Heart Failure

ABSTRACT

Reducing costly hospital readmissions of patients with Congestive Heart Failure (CHF) is important. We analyzed 4,661 CHF patients (from 2007 to 2017) using Hidden Markov Models in order to profile CHF readmission risk over time. This method proved practical in identifying three patient groups with distinctive characteristics, which might guide physicians in tailoring personalized care to prevent hospital readmission. We thus demonstrate how applying appropriate AI analytics can save costs and improve the quality of care.

KEYWORDS:

• Applying machine learning
• utilizing predictive analytics
• congestive heart failure
• Hidden Markov Models (HMM)
• readmission

Additional information

Funding

This research was supported by a Grant from the GIF(#I-2499- 201.2/2018), the German-Israeli Foundation for Scientific Research and Development.

Notes on contributors

Ofir Ben-Assuli

Ofir Ben-Assuli, [email protected], is an associate professor in the faculty of Business Administration at the Ono Academic College, Israel. He also serves as the Associate Dean for Research at his College. He completed his Ph.D. in Management Information Systems, Tel Aviv University in 2011; MBA, Hebrew University in 2005 and a B.A. in Economics and Computer Science, Ben-Gurion University in 2002. His publications have appeared in MIS Quarterly, European Journal of Information Systems, Decision Sciences, Decision Support Systems, among others. He has been awarded several grants for his research including U.S.-Israel Binational Science Foundation and the German-Israeli Foundation, among others.

Tsipi Heart

Tsipi Heart, [email protected], a senior lecturer at the Faculty of Business Administration, Ono Academic College. She has acquired her Ph.D. at Ben-Gurion University, MBA at Tel-Aviv University and B.Sc. in computer Science com laude from the Israeli Institute of Technology. Dr. Heart has about 20 years experience as a CIO. Her research interests are within healthcare information technology, big data analytics, information technology innovation, and strategic impact of information technology, particularly in healthcare. Her work has been presented at conferences as ICIS and ECIS, and published in journals as DATA BASE, JAIS, IJMI, MDM, ISM, JITTA, IJEB, JGITM, among others.

Joshua R. Vest

Dr. Joshua R. Vest, [email protected], is a health services researcher with an interest in the organizational determinants and effectiveness of health information technology and systems. He is a professor of Health Policy & Management at the Indiana University Richard M Fairbanks School of Public Health and Research Scientist with the Center for Biomedical Informatics at the Regenstrief Institute. Most of his work is focused on the adoption, utilization, impact, and policy issues of technologies that facilitate the sharing of patient information between different organizations.

Roni Ramon-Gonen

Roni Ramon-Gonen, [email protected], is a lecturer in the faculty of Business Administration at Bar-Ilan University, Israel. She received her Ph.D. from the Information Systems program at the Graduate School of Business Administration, Bar-Ilan University. She holds an MBA degree from Bar-Ilan University and a B.Sc. degree in Information Systems from the Technion, Israel Institute of Technology. Her research interests include knowledge discovery using data mining techniques, cluster analysis, text mining, sequential pattern mining and recommender systems.

Nir Shlomo

Nir Shlomo, [email protected], is a data scientist at riskified and a PhD candidate at the Faculty of health, Tel-Aviv university. He holds a Master degree in medical science from Tel-Aviv university and MBA degree from the Ono Academic College. He specialized in machine learning algorithms and classification models as well as bio-statistics modeling. His main research interest is about the prediction of early and late complications in patients with acute pulmonary embolism.

Robert Klempfner

Robert Klempfner, [email protected], is Specialist in Cardiology and Internal Medicine at Sheba Medical Center, Israel, an associate professor of Cardiology at the Tel Aviv University, over 90 peer-reviewed research manuscripts and the Scientific Director – The ARC Innovation Center, Sheba Medical Center, Israel. He also serves in additional managerial roles including: (1) the Director of the Israeli Center for Cardiovascular Research - nonprofit organization providing comprehensive research services to wide range of institutes and companies; (2) Director of the Cardiac Rehabilitation & Prevention Institute at Sheba Medical Center- The largest and oldest cardiac prevention and rehabilitation center in the Middle East