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Research Articles

The Survival Strategies of the North Korean Elite

Pages 173-192 | Published online: 06 Oct 2022
 

ABSTRACT

For decades a host of observers have periodically declared that North Korea is on the verge of collapse. Yet in practice the regime has demonstrated considerable resilience and will most likely last for a long time to come. This article explores both the factors posing a potential threat to the regime’s stability (above all, its contiguity with rich, free, and attractive South Korea) and the factors contributing to its stability (the cohesiveness of elites). North Korea’s policy during the period since 2011 is analyzed as a set of measures that are primarily designed to help neutralize external and internal threats to the regime’s stability. Although a sudden collapse of the Kim family regime is hypothetically possible, it is more probable that the it retain control of the country for the foreseeable future.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1. Manning, R. “The Asian paradox: toward a new architecture,” World Policy Journal, Vol. 10, No 3, 1993, p. 57.

2. Stares, P., and Wit, J. Preparing for sudden change in North Korea. Council on Foreign Relations Special Report No 42. – Washington: Council on Foreign Relations, 2009.

3. McCune, G. Korea, pp. 56–57.

4. “North Korea’s economy grew 3.7% in 2017, Pyongyang professor estimates,” The Japan Times. October 13, 2018.

5. Korea, Rep. The World Bank Data.

6. Maddison, A. The World Economy, pp. 304, 355.

7. For a survey of the current state of information control systems, see Williams, M. Digital Trenches: North Korea’s Information Counter-Offensive.

8. 25 Years After the Fall of the Berlin Wall: The Economic Integration of East Germany, p. 23.

9. Gerber, T. “Membership benefits or selection effects? Why former Communist Party members do better in post-Soviet Russia,” Social Science Research, Vol. 29, No 1, 2000, pp. 25–50; Sadowski, I., and Pohorila, N. “Do revolutions bring revolutionary changes? Replacement in the ranks of Ukraine’s parliament, 1990–2014,” International Journal of Sociology, Vol. 48, No. 1, 2017, pp. 6–33; Szelényi, I., and Szelényi, S. “Circulation or reproduction of elites during the postcommunist transformation of Eastern Europe: introduction,” Theory and Society, Vol. 24, No. 5, 1995, pp. 615–638.

10. Lankov, A.; Ward, P.; Yoo, H.Y.; and Kim, Ji.Y. “Making money in the state: North Korea’s pseudo-state enterprises in the early 2000s,” Journal of East Asian Studies, Vol. 17, No. 1, 2017, pp. 51–67.

11. DeFronzo, J. Revolutions and revolutionary movements, pp. 12–13.

12. “Foreign Ministry spokesman denounces US military attack on Libya.” Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), March 22, 2011.

13. Pollack, J. “The United States, North Korea, and the end of the Agreed Framework,” Naval War College Review, Vol. 56, No. 3, 2003, pp. 11–49.

14. “The Effectiveness of United Nations Targeted Sanctions,” In Geneva: Targeted Sanctions Consortium, 2013. p. 7.

15. Major, S. “Timing is everything: economic sanctions, regime type, and domestic instability,” International Interactions., Vol. 38, No. 1, 2012, pp. 79–110; Brooks, R. “Sanctions and regime type: What works, and when?,” Security Studies, Vol. 11, No. 4, 2002, pp. 1–50.

16. There continue to turn up often in the literature highly exaggerated estimates of the number of victims of the 1996–1999 famine. The currently available information allows for an estimate of the number of victims that is far lower than the frequently mentioned “2–3 million,” but it is still very high. Goodkind, D.; West, L.; and Johnson, P. “A Reassessment of Mortality in North Korea, 1993–2008.” Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Population Association of America. Washington D.C. 31 March–2 April 2011.

17. Regarding Kim Jong-il’s trips to Shanghai and China’s motives in arranging the trips, see Duchâtel, M., and Schell, Ph. China’s Policy on North Korea: Economic Engagement and Nuclear Disarmament. SIPRI Policy Paper No. 40.

18. Bukhan kyeongje jaengjeom punseok, pp. 70–73, 163.

19. Kim, B.-Y., and Song, D. “The Participation of North Korean households in the informal economy: size, determinants, and effect,” Seoul Journal of Economics, Vol. 21, No. 2, 2008, pp. 361–385.

20. There is a vast literature on “grassroots capitalism” in North Korea, most of it in Korean. Regarding the system of “pseudo-state enterprises,” see Lankov, A., et al., op. cit.

21. Kim, Kwang-jin. “Bukhan 5.30 jeongchi-wa Gim Cheong-eun nongeop jeongchi.” Bukhan, 2014, No.11, pp. 60–64; Kim, Yeong-hun; Kwon, Tae-jin; and Im, Su-gyeong. Bukhan-eui nongeop bumun kaehyeok jeongchi bunseok-kwa jeongmang, 1996–2012.

22. Pak, Hu-geon. “Bukhan sahuijueui kyeongje cheje-wa jinhwajeon-e daehan kochal,” Hyondae Bukhan Yeongu, 2018, No. 2, pp. 112–121.

23. Hong Min. “Bukhan-eui apateu geonseol sijang-kwa dosi jenongchi,” KDI Bukhan kyeongje ribyu, 2014, No. 8, pp. 35–62.

24. Curtis, M. “North Korean market update,” North Korean Economy Watch, February 5, 2018.

25. Lankov, A. “North Korean refugees in Northeast China,” Asian Survey, Vol. 44, No. 6, 2004, pp. 856–873.

26. Choegeun hyeonghwang. Official website, Ministry of Unification, Republic of Korea.

27. Kim, Dong-wang. Bukhan-e-seo-eui hanlyu hyeongsang: geu euimi-wa yoeunghyang.

28. Choegeun hyeonghwang, op. cit.

29. Williams, M. op. cit., pp. 34–37.

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