Samudra: India’s convoluted path to undersea nuclear weapons

ABSTRACT

India is advancing slowly toward operationalizing its nuclear triad. Its first nuclear-propelled ballistic-missile submarine (SSBN), the INS Arihant, conducted its maiden deterrent patrol in November 2018. However, doubts exist around the capability of India’s SSBN, the effectiveness of its command and control, and its effects on regional stability in South Asia. This article examines the history and future trajectory of India’s sea-based nuclear forces and describes how India seeks to maintain robust command and control over its undersea nuclear weapons.

KEYWORDS:

• India
• ballistic-missile submarine
• command and control
• South Asia
• nuclear-powered submarine

Notes

1 Prime Minister’s Office, “Prime Minister Felicitates Crew of INS Arihant on Completion of Nuclear Triad,” Press Information Bureau, November 5, 2019, <https://pib.gov.in/PressReleaseIframePage.aspx?PRID=1551894>.

2 Ibid.

3 Zia Mian, M.V. Ramanna, and A.H. Nayyar, “Nuclear Subamrines in South Asia: New Risks and Dangers,” Journal of Peace and Disarmament, Vol. 2, No. 1 (2019), pp. 184–202; Andrew C. Winner, “The Future of India’s Undersea Nuclear Weapons,” in Toshi Yoshihara and James R. Holmes, eds., Strategy in the Second Nuclear Age: Power, Ambition and the Ultimate Weapon (Washington, DC: Georgetwon University Press, 2012), pp. 161–­80; Amit R. Saksena, “Can India Accommodate the INS Arihant,” The Diplomat, January 26, 2015, <https://thediplomat.com/2015/01/can-india-accommodate-the-ins-arihant/>; Pravin Sawhney, “Modi’s Claim about Nuclear deterrence Is More Event Management than Substance,” The Wire, November 6, 2018, <https://thewire.in/security/narendra-modi-claim-nuclear-deterrence>.

4 For the larger debate, see Vipin Narang, “Five Myths about India’s Nuclear Posture,” Washington Quarterly, Vol. 36, No. 3 (2013), pp. 143–57; Christopher Clary and Vipin Narang, “India’s Counterforce Temptations: Strategic Dilemma, Doctrines and Capabilities,” International Security, Vol. 43, No. 3 (2018–19), pp. 7–52; Gaurav Kampani, “Is the Indian Nuclear Tiger Changing Its Stripes: Data, Interpretation and Facts,” Nonproliferation Review, Vol. 21, Nos. 3–4 (2014), pp. 383–98; Gaurav Kampani, “Why India’s Post-1998 Evolution as a Conventional Nuclear Weapons Power Evokes Surprise,” Journal of Peace and Nuclear Disarmament, Vol. 2, No. 1 (2019), pp. 170–83: Yogesh Joshi, “Angles and Dangles: Arihant and the Dilemma of India’s Undersea Nuclear Weapons,” War on the Rocks, January 14, 2019, <https://warontherocks.com/2019/01/angles-and-dangles-arihant-and-the-dilemma-of-indias-undersea-nuclear-weapons>.

5 Satish Chandra, “The Trinity of Power,” Indian Express, November 19, 2018, <https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/ins-arihant-nuclear-submarine-deterrence-the-trinity-of-power-national-security-china-pakistan-5452616/>; Gurmeet Kanwal, “India’s Nuclear Triad Is Now Fully Operational,” Vivekanand International Foundation, December 11, 2018, <www.vifindia.org/2018/december/11/india-s-nuclear-triad-is-now-fully-operational>.

6 Iskander Rehman, “The Perils of Naval Nuclearization and Brinkmanship in the Indian Ocean,” Naval War College Review, Vol. 65, No. 4 (2012), pp. 64–88; Diana Wueger, “India’s Nuclear Armed Submarine: Deterrence or Danger,” Washington Quarterly, Vol. 39, No. 3 (2016), pp. 77–90; Andrew C. Winner and Ryan W. French, “Rip Currents: The Dangers of Nuclear-Armed Submarine Proliferation,” Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, Vol. 72, No. 4 (2016), <https://thebulletin.org/2016/07/rip-currents-the-dangers-of-nuclear-armed-submarine-proliferation/>; Diana Wueger, “Through a Periscope Darkly: The Nuclear Undersea Competition in Southern Asia Is Just Beginning,” War on the Rocks, October 18, 2017, <https://warontherocks.com/2017/10/through-a-periscope-darkly-the-nuclear-undersea-competition-in-southern-asia-is-just-beginning/>.

7 For India’s nuclear-weapon program, see George Perkovich, India’s Nuclear Bomb: The Impact on Global Nuclear Proliferation (Los Angeles: University of California Press, 2002); Itty Abraham, The Making of Indian Atomic Bomb: Science, Secrecy and the Postcolonial State (London: Zed Books, 1998); Sumit Ganguly, “India’s Pathway to Pokhran II: The Prospects and Sources of India’s Nuclear Weapons Test,” International Security, Vol. 23, No. 4 (1999), pp. 148–77; Raj Chengappa, Weapons of Peace: The Secret Story of India’s Quest to Be a Nuclear Power (New Delhi: HarperCollins, 2002); Bharat Karnad, Nuclear Weapons and Indian Security: The Realist Foundations of Strategy (New Delhi: Macmillan, 2002); Gaurav Kampani, “New Delhi’s Long Nuclear Journey: How Secrecy and Institutional Roadblocks Delayed India’s Weaponization,” International Security, Vol. 38, No. 4 (2014), pp. 71–114.

8 DAE, Annual Report, 1965–66 (New Delhi: Government of India, 1966), p. 8.

9 Nehru Memorial Museum and Library (NMML), “Summary Record of the Meeting between the Planning Commission and the Atomic Energy Department Held at 3.00 PM on Tuesday, Nov. 30, 1954 in the Committee Room of the Planning Commission at Rashtrapati Bhawan,” Jawaharlal Nehru Papers (post-1947), File No. 308 (Top Secret).

10 Harsh V. Pant and Yogesh Joshi, Indian Nuclear Policy: A Short Introduction (New Delhi: Oxford University Press, 2018).

11 M.V. Ramana, The Promise of Power: Examining Nuclear Energy in India, (New Delhi: Penguin, 2012).

12 Hal Brands, “Rethinking Nonproliferation: LBJ, The Gilpatric Committee and U.S. National Security Policy,” Journal of Cold War Studies, Vol. 8, No. 2 (2006), pp. 83–113.

13 Lyndon Johnson Presidential Library, “Summary of Statement Made before the Glipatric Committee, December 13, 1964,” NSF File-Committee on Nuclear Nonproliferation, Box 9.

14 Lyndon Johnson Presidential Library, “Letter from Glenn Seaborg to Homi Bhabha,” March 19, 1965, National Security Files: Files of Robert W. Komer, Box 25.

15 DAE, Annual Report, 1965–66, p. 8.

16 Lyndon B. Johnson Predidential Library, “Memorandum for the Secretary of the Navy: HG Rickover,” September 3, 1964, National Security File: File of Charles E. Johnson, Box 38. Also see Evert Clark, “US Acts to Guard Naval Nuclear Data,” New York Times, 9 February 1965, p. 3.

17 National Security File, “Airgram from American Embassy to Department of State: Visit of DF Hornig to India, May 1–6,” May 27, 1966, Country File: India, Box 133, Lyndon Johnson Presidential Library and Archives, Austin.

18 DAE, Annual Report 1966–67 (New Delhi: Government of India, 1967), p. 7.

19 Author’s interview with I, senior admiral of the Indian Navy, Mumbai, April 29, 2017.

20 Anil Anand, Submarine Propulsion: Muscle Power to Nuclear (Mumbai: Frontier India Technology, 2016), p. 86.

21 Author’s interview with B1, senior admiral of the Indian Navy, New Delhi, September 16, 2017.

22 Author’s interview with T, senior nuclear scientist, Mumbai, March 9, 2016.

23 Chengappa, Weapons of Peace; Bharat Karnad, Nuclear Weapons and Indian Security: The Realist Foundations of Strategy (New Delhi: MacMillan, 2002); Amit Gupta, “Determining India’s Force Structure and Military Doctrine: I Want My MiG,” Asian Survey, Vol. 35, No. 5 (1995), pp. 455–56.

24 Chengappa, Weapons of Peace, p. 228. Similar arguments are made in Karnad, Nuclear Weapons and Indian Security, p. 305.

25 Ashley Tellis, “Securing the Barrack: The Logic, Structure and Objectives of India’s Naval Expansion: II,” Naval War College Review, Vol. 43, No. 4 (1990), pp. 31–57; K. Subrahmanyam, “Nuclear-Powered Submarine: Canadian Views Valid for India,” Times of India, July 10, 1987, pp. 8. Also see K. Subrahmanyam, “Security Doctrine for India in the Indian Ocean,” paper presented at the Defence Oceanology Seminar, Visakhapatnam, India, December 14–15, 1989.

26 Gaurav Kampani, “New Delhi’s Long Nuclear Journey: How Secrecy and Institutional Roadblocks Delayed India’s Weaponsiation,” International Security, Vol. 38, No. 4 (2014), pp. 79–114; Yogesh Joshi, “The Imagined Arsenal: India’s Nuclear Decision-Making, 1973–76,” Working Paper No. 6, Nuclear Proliferation International History Project, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, June 2015, <www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/WP6--The%20Imagined%20Arsenal_2.pdf>.

27 Interview with a former chairman, DAE, March 9, 2019, Mumbai.

28 On the autonomy of scientific institutions including the DAE in modern India, see Jahanvi Phalke, Atomic State: Big Science in Twentieth-Century India (New Delhi: Permamnent Black, 2013). Also see Robert Andersen, Nucleus and the Nation: Scientists, International Networks, and Power in India (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2010).

29 Ibid.

30 Mihir Kumar Roy, War in the Indian Ocean (New Delhi: Lancer, 1995), p. 114. This was attested by another senior admiral of the Indian Navy who worked on the program. Author’s interview with K, senior naval officer, New Delhi, March 22, 2015.

31 Nehru Memorial Musuem and Library, “To P.N. Haksar from L. K. Jha (Indian Ambassador to the US), 11 September 1972, P.N. Haksar Papers, Subject File No. 277 (As Principal Secretary to the Prime Minister, 1967–73).

32 Quoted in W.P.S. Sidhu and Chris Smith, “Indian Defence and Security-Industry, Forces and Future Trends,” Jane’s Special Report, June 2000, p. 70. No official documents of the time are available, but dissertations submitted by senior officers at the tri-service Higher Staff College or the National Defence College (NDC) provide some clues to the thinking within the military establishment. A survey of these dissertations suggest an overwhelming inclination toward sea denial and a discourse of “sea-based deterrent forces” largely composed of submarines and naval aircraft, since emerging cruise-missile technology had left aircraft carriers and surface ships extremely vulnerable. See Commodore AS Dawson, “A Strategic Doctrine for the Indian Ocean,” Dissertation No. 17, National Defence College, New Delhi, p. 14; Brig. V.N. Sharma, “Strategic Interests in the Indian Ocean,” Dissertation No. 20, National Defence College, New Delhi, 1977, pp. 26–28. Also see Admiral S.N. Kohli, Sea Power and the Indian Ocean: With Special Reference to India (New Delhi: Tata McGraw-Hill, 1978), pp. 51­–58.

33 Kohli, Sea Power and the Indian, p. 41.

34 Admiral S.G. Ghorshkov, The Sea Power of the State (Oxford: Pergamon Press, 1979), p. 191. Also see Milan Vego, “The Role of the Attack Nuclear Submarines in Soviet Naval Theory,” Naval War College Review, Vol. 36, No. 6 (1983), pp. 48–64; Norman Polmar, “Soviet Submarines: A Factor of Imbalance,” Jane’s Navy International, Vol. 81, No. 10 (1976), p. 12.

35 Discussions with Soviet Defence Minister Marshall Grechko, February 25, 1972, Nehru Memorial Museum and Library, P.N. Haksar Papers, 3rd Installment, Subject File No. 242, 1972 (As Principal Secretary to the Prime Minister 1967–73).

36 Chatterjee, India’s Submarine Arm, pp. 57–58.

37 Yogesh Joshi, “The Imagined Arsenal: India’s Nuclear Decision-Making, 1973–76,” NPIHP Working Papers, Wilson Center, June 2015, p. 33.

38 Ibid., p. 34.

39 NMML, “Directorate of Marine Engineering, Compact Power Reactor: Minutes of the Meeting Held on 22 January 1976 in the Office of the Deputy Chairman, Planning Commission, 30 January 1976,” P.N. Haksar Papers, 3rd Installment, Subject File No. 298, 1975 Part II (Ministry of Defense and Related Files 1971–76, 79) (Top Secret).

40 The 1974–75 annual report of the DAE, a public document, explained the program in these words: “In view of the recent energy crisis, and the phenomenal rise in the price of fuel oil, nuclear power in the case of small and medium power range appears very attractive, will be very competitive. Nuclear power reactors of the small and medium power range in remote areas will be very useful to build-up lead centres before they are connected to the grid. Nuclear power for marine propulsion will also prove to be competitive, especially for fast tankers and bulk carriers. Hence, prototype power reactor design studies have been made and a project report has been prepared.” DAE, Annual Report, 1974–75 (New Delhi: Government of India, 1975), p. 82.

41 NMML, “Directorate of Marine Engineering, Compact Power Reactor.”

42 Author’s interview with B1, senior admiral of the Indian Navy, New Delhi, February 5, 2015.

43 National Archives, New Delhi, “Report of the Visit of Defence Production Delegation Led by Shri K. Subrahmanyam, Secretary, Department of Defence Production to USSR, from 8th to 22nd October 1979,” Ministry of External Affairs, File No. WI/239/2/79 (EE) Vol. II.

44 Foreign Information Broadcast Service, “Daily Views Implications of Upcoming Brezhnev Visit,” Daily Report: South Asia, November 21, 1980; Szalontai, The Elephant in the Room, p. 16.

45 Foreign Broadcast Information Service, “High Level Soviet Military Delegation Arrives,” Daily Report: South Asia, April 28, 1981. Also see Times of India, “Soviet Military Chief Arrives in New Delhi,” April 28, 1981, p. 1.

46 “Project Samudra Phase 1: M Venugopal, PA to FoC-in-C, East,” 1982, private archives of a senior government official.

47 “Advanced Technology Vessel Project: Note for RM,” 1 January 1985, private archives of a senior government official.

48 Alexander Terenov, Under Three Flags: The Saga of the Submarine Cruiser K-43/ Chakra, p. 23.

49 Ibid.

50 “Project Samudra Phase 1: M Venugopal, PA to FoC-in-C, East,” 1982, private archives of a senior government official.

51 Ibid.

52 Ganguly, India’s Pathway to Pokhran II; Pant and Joshi, India’s Nuclear Policy.

53 R. Venkataraman, “Nuclear Explosion and Its Aftermath,” USI Journal, Vol. 128, No. 533 (1998), pp. 303–09.

54 “Advanced Technology Vessel Project: Note for RM,” 1 January 1985, private archives of a senior government official.

55 Perkovich, India’s Nuclear Bomb, p. 274.

56 Interview with Vice Admiral K.K. Nayyar (former vice chief of the Indian Navy), New Delhi, October 16, 2015.

57 Ibid.

58 Kampani, India’s Long Nuclear Journey, p. 93.

59 Author’s interview with S1, former chief of naval staff, Jaipur, January 19, 2015.

60 Rita Manchanda, “Extravagance at Sea,” The Pioneer, December 22, 1994, available in Foreign Information Broadcast Service, “Indigenous Nuclear Submarine Program Examined,” Daily Report: Near East and South Asia, December 29, 1994.

61 Eric Arnett, “Military Technology: The Case of India,” SIPRI Yearbook 1994, p. 363.

62 Hiranandani, Transition to Triumph, p. 217; Manoj Joshi, “Naval Research Plan Gets a Raw Deal,” Times of India, December 15, 1994, p. 9.

63 Asian Age, “India: Navy Chief Denies Plan for Nuclear Submarine by 2004,” May 25, 1996, p. 4.

64 Government of India, ‘Draft Report of National Security Advisory Board on Indian Nuclear Doctrine’, August 17, 1999, <www.fas.org/nuke/guide/india/doctrine/990817-indnucld.htm>.

65 Author’s interview with retired Indian government official, July 23, 2019, New Delhi.

66 Author’s interview with B2, senior naval officer, March 25, 2015.

67 Times of India, “Nuclear Submarines Form Part of Naval Agenda,” December 12, 1999, p. 9. Also see “Naval Officials Demand Reviving of Nuclear Submarine Project,” Times of India, April 13, 2000, p. 3

68 Rahul Roy-Chaudhary, “India and Pakistan, Nuclear-Related Programs and Aspirations at Sea,” in Lowell Dittmer, eds., South Asia Nuclear Security Dilemma: India, Pakistan and China (New York: East Gate, 2005), p. 81.

69 Ibid., p. 82.

70 Author’s interview with B2, senior admiral of the Indian Navy, New Delhi, March 25, 2015.

71 Chengappa, Weapons of Peace, p. 278; Perkovich, India’s Nuclear Bomb, pp. 245–49.

72 Author interview with B2.

73 Steven Lee Myers, “Russia Is Helping India Extending Range of Missiles, US Aides Say,” New York Times, April 27, 1998, <www.nytimes.com/1998/04/27/world/russia-is-helping-india-extend-range-of-missile-us-aides-say.html>; Hans M. Kristensen and Joshua M. Handler, “Indian Nuclear Forces,” SIPRI Yearbook 2002, p. 561.

74 Author’s interview with B2, senior admiral of the Indian Navy, New Delhi, July 10, 2018.

75 Ibid.

76 Anil Anand, “My Four Decades in BARC,” Indian National Academy of Engineering, February 2014, reproduced in Sujit Sanyal, The Second Strike: The Personal and Professional Life of Nuclear Scientist Anil Anand (New Delhi: thebookCo, 2014), p. 2521 (kindle edition).

77 Author’s interview with B2.

78 Joshi, “Angles and Dangles.”

79 Author’s interview with B2.

80 Joshi, “Angles and Dangles.”

81 Author’s interview with a senior nuclear scientist, member of the Chidambaram Committee, Mumbai, March 9, 2016.

82 Sandeep Unnithan, “A Peek into India’s Top Secret and Costliest Defence Project, Nuclear Submarines,” India Today, December 10, 2017, <www.indiatoday.in/magazine/the-big-story/story/20171218-india-ballistic-missile-submarine-k-6-submarine-launched-drdo-1102085-2017-12-10>.

83 Author’s interview with B2.

84 Unnithan, “A Peek into India’s Top Secret and Costliest Defence Project.”

85 Ibid.

86 Draft Nuclear Doctrine, August 1999.

87 Stephen J. Cimbala, Nuclear Weapons and Cooperative Security in the 21st Century (New York: Routledge, 2010).

88 Peter Feaver, “Command and Control in Emerging Nuclear Nations,” International Security, Vol. 17, No. 3 (1992–93), pp. 160–87.

89 Ashley Tellis, India’s Emerging Nuclear Posture: Between Recessed Deterrence and Ready Arsenal (Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 2002), pp. 577–78.

90 Yogesh Joshi and Frank O’Donnell, India and Nuclear Asia: Forces, Doctrine, and Dangers (Washington, DC: Georgetown University Press, 2018).

91 Author’s interview with senior Indian government official retired from the National Security Council Secretariat, New Delhi, June 10, 2018.

92 Tellis, India’s Emerging Nuclear Posture.

93 Richard B. White, “Command and Control of India’s Nuclear Forces,” Nonproliferation Review, Vol. 21, Nos. 3–4 (2014), pp. 261–74; Rehman, The Perils of Naval Nuclearization; Wueger, India’s Nuclear Armed Submarine; Winner and French, Rip Currents; Wueger, Through a Periscope Darkly.

94 Author’s interview with R, senior retired naval officer, New Delhi, July 10, 2018.

95 Author’s interview with a senior officer retired from SFC, New Delhi, June 12, 2018.

96 Quoted in Iskander Rehman, Murky Waters: Naval Nuclear Dynamic in the Indian Ocean (Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2015), p. 45.

97 Iskander Rehman, “The Subsurface Dimension of Sino-Indian Military rivalry,” in David Brewster, ed., India and China at Sea: Competition for Naval Dominance in the Indian Ocean (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2018), pp. 137–51.

98 Interview with a retired senior official from India’s National Security Council Secretariat, Singapore, September 26, 2019.

99 Author’s interview with a senior officer from SFC, New Delhi, July 19, 2019.

100 Interview with a retired senior official from India’s National Security Council Secretariat.

101 Ibid.

102 On Pakistani sea-based nuclear deterrence, see Christopher Clary and Ankit Panda, “Safer at Sea? Pakistan’s Sea-Based Deterrent and Nuclear Weapons Security,” Washington Quarterly, Vol. 40, No. 3 (2017), pp. 149–68. On Chinese SSBN strategy see Tong Zhao, Tides of Change: China’s Ballistic Missile Submarines and Strategic Stability (Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2017). On sensing capabilities in the world and how applicable they are in the Indian Ocean, see Owen Cote, “Invisible Nuclear-Armed Submarines, or Transparent Oceans? Are Ballistic Missile Submarines Still the Best Deterrent for the United States?” Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, January 2, 2019, <https://thebulletin.org/2019/01/invisible-nuclear-armed-submarines-or-transparent-oceans-are-ballistic-missile-submarines-still-the-best-deterrent-for-the-united-states/>.

103 Sandeep Unnithan, “Nuclear Capability: The Arihant watershed,” India Today, November 10, 2018, <www.indiatoday.in/magazine/up-front/story/19700101-nuclear-capability-the-arihant-watershed-1384926-2018-11-10>.

104 Kampani, Is India’s Nuclear Tiger Changing Its Stripes, p. 299.

105 Ibid.

106 Interview with a retired senior official from India's National Security Council Secretariat, Singapore, September 26, 2019.

107 Interview with a senior officer from SFC, New Delhi, June 12, 2018.

108 Lt. General Amit Sharma, “India’s Nuclear Weapons Program,” lecture given at Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, August 28, 2019.

109 Arun Prakash, “The Significance of Arihant,” Indian Express, November 7, 2015, <https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/the-significance-of-ins-arihant-nuclear-submarine-navy-5436432/>.

110 Interview with a senior officer from SFC, New Delhi, March 7, 2019.

111 Ibid.

112 Rehman, Murky Waters, p. 14; Rajat Pandit, “Navy Gets New Facility to Communicate with Nuclear Submarine Prowling Underwater,” Times of India, July 31, 2014, <https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Navy-gets-new-facility-to-communicate-with-nuclear-submarines-prowling-underwater/articleshow/39371121.cms>.

113 Indian Navy, “INS Kattabomman,” n.d., <www.indiannavy.nic.in/content/ins-kattabomman>.

114 The Hindu, “India to Be the Second Country to Use ELF Facility,” May 20, 2017, <www.thehindu.com/news/cities/Hyderabad/india-to-be-second-country-to-use-elf-facility/article18517424.ece>.

115 Ibid.

116 Interview with a retired senior official from India's National Security Council Secretariat, Singapore, September 26, 2019.

117 Ibid.