Russia, Post-Soviet Integration, and the EAEU: The Balance between Domination and Cooperation

ABSTRACT

The Russian leadership promotes a vision of a multipolar world where major powers must have their own “zones of influence.” This implies that other “great powers” have to recognize Moscow’s sphere of dominance over the post-Soviet realm. It also makes Russia’s neighbors increasingly reluctant to delegate their sovereignty to institutions of regional integration, as those are likely to become instruments of Russian domination. As the partners do not trust Russia, they insist on a limited character of integration projects. Russia is more likely to be successful in using asymmetric bilateral bargains rather than multilateral institutions to dominate the post-Soviet region. 

Disclosure Statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Notes

1. Officially, the Eurasian Economic Union was launched on January 1, 2015 with the treaty signed on May 29, 2014, by the leaders of Russia, Kazakhstan, and Belarus. In 2015, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan joined the Union. The EAEU was formed on the basis of several previous projects, notably the Customs Union (2010) and the Common Economic Space (2012).

2. It was prepared by the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy (CFDP), an influential think-tank

3. In the Interparliamentary Assembly of the Eurasian Economic Community, Russia had 42 members, Belarus 16 members, Kazakhstan 16 members, Kyrgyzstan 8 members, and Tajikistan 8 members. The EurAsEC was formally dissolved on January 1, 2015.

4. One could think of several possible explanations: these states are too weak vis-à-vis Russia even together; they don’t trust each other and are not able to create credible commitments; they consider such attempts to be too risky having in mind their high, but at the same time asymmetric dependency upon Russia. Also Belarus and Kazakhstan cannot significantly increase their mutual economic co-operation for various reasons, including the fact the air distance from Belarus to Kazakhstan is 1,726 miles.

Additional information

Funding

This study was implemented in the framework of the Basic Research Program at the National Research University Higher School of Economics (HSE) in 2020.