Russia’s Response to COVID-19: Leveraging Pre-Pandemic Data to Theorize about Public Approval

ABSTRACT

Why have Russians largely approved of the government’s pandemic response despite having one of the highest excess death rates in the world?  The explanation is not that the government has done a good job, that citizens have come to expect little from the state in general, nor entirely because of a pro-government media. Drawing on pre-pandemic survey data, I argue that Russians’ opinions about state-provided healthcare shape their evaluation of the government’s response to COVID-19, and help explain approval of the government's pandemic reaction. Future research on Russian pandemic politics should account for the importance of prior assessments.

Acknowledgments

I am enormously grateful to Dr. Israel Marques II at the National Research University Higher School of Economics (Moscow, Russia) for his work on helping to design and implement the survey from which some of the data in the paper come. The author is an Associate Fellow at the International Center for the Study of Institutions and Development (ICSID) at the National Research University Higher School of Economics (Moscow, Russia) and this article was prepared within the framework of the HSE University Basic Research Program.

Disclosure Statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1. The Moscow Times provides a comprehensive timeline of the COVID-19 pandemic in Russia and the government’s response to it. Accessed October 9, 2020. Available at: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/10/09/coronavirus-in-russia-the-latest-news-oct-9-a69117.

2. Levada survey organization, June 26, 2020, “The Coronavirus Pandemic.”

3. Ibid.

4. Levada’s data on Putin’s approval ratings are available here: https://www.levada.ru/indikatory/ (accessed March 8, 2021).

5. The Moscow Times, “Russia Confirms 4 new Coronavirus Cases,” March 13, 2020. Accessed October 11, 2020. Available at: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/03/07/russia-confirms-4-new-coronavirus-cases-a69557.

6. The Moscow Times provides a comprehensive timeline of the COVID-19 pandemic in Russia and the government’s response to it. Accessed October 9, 2020. Available at: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/10/09/coronavirus-in-russia-the-latest-news-oct-9-a69117.

7. See Deutsche Welle (2015), “Piat’ faktov o sisteme zdravookhraneniia v Rossii.”

8. RIA Novosti, “V 21 regione Rossii vnedriat tsifrovye propuska” [In 21 regions of Russia there has been introduced electronic propusks], April 23, 2020. Accessed October 11, 2020. Available at: https://ria.ru/20200423/1570440563.html.

9. Anecdotally, I have been told that older Russians in Moscow who have inquired with the primary care doctors about getting the vaccine have been told that the vaccine will not be available to them until some time in 2021. Although I cannot verify this, it does indicate that there is skepticism about the vaccine’s availability.

10. RIA Novosti, “Bolee 70% rossian ni hotiat delat’ privivku ot koronavirusa, pokazal opros” [More than 70% of Russians don’t want to get the vaccine against coronavirus, survey showed], October 5, 2020. Accessed October 11, 2020. Available at: https://ria.ru/20201005/privivka-1578199577.html; Kommersant’, “Bolee poloviny oproshenykh vrachi ni gotovy sdelat’ privivku ot koronavirusa [More than half of surveyed doctors are not prepared to administer the vaccine against coronavirus],” August 14, 2020. Accessed October 11, 220. Available at: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/4451922.

11. The Moscow Times reports a running tally of infections here: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/10/09/coronavirus-in-russia-the-latest-news-oct-9-a69117 (Accessed October 9, 2020).

12. Data reported by Levada on November 24, 2020 does not include questions about the approval of Putin’s handling of coronavirus, but only for regional handling of coronavirus. See the results of the October 22–28, 2020, survey here: https://www.levada.ru/en/2020/11/24/coronavirus-2.

13. See Cordell (2021), “Russia Has One of the World’s Highest Excess Death Rates.”

14. For data on presidential approval ratings, see: https://www.levada.ru/en/ratings/.

15. Levada survey organization (2020c), “The Coronavirus Pandemic.”

16. Levada survey organization (2020d), “Employment and Spending: Expectations and Behavior.”

17. See the Levada Press Release, “The Most Alarming Problems,” September 26, 2017 (available at: https://www.levada.ru/en/2017/09/26/the-most-alarming-problems/).

18. Levada survey organization (2020b), “The Coronavirus Epidemic.”

19. This survey research was deemed exempt by the Institutional Review Board at the University of Colorado Boulder, record number 19–0798.

20. The effect of internet usage on political behavior and opinions depends, not surprisingly, on how one is using the internet and what one is reading. Research has shown, for instance, that the political effect of social media depends on which platform a person is using. See Reuter and Szakonyi (2014), “In Russia, the Political Impact of Social Media.”

21. In an extreme example, there were reports in March 2020 about wealthy Russians purchasing their own ventilators for private use in the event that they became ill. See Sauer, Gershkovich, and Cordell (2020), “Rich Russians are Hoarding Ventilators to Protect Themselves.”

22. Levada survey organization (2020c), “The Coronavirus Pandemic.”