Uncertainty, economic growth its impact on tourism, some country experiences

ABSTRACT

This paper investigates in a time series framework over the period 1995 to 2016, the impact of uncertainty on tourism. The paper explores the causal association of both political uncertainty and economic uncertainty between tourism and other macroeconomic variables for the countries of France, Greece, and the United States. The political uncertainty is proxied through terrorism index and the economic uncertainty is explained through the Economic Policy Index. The unit root test and the ARDL cointegration are applied for unknown structural breaks. In the long run uncertainty adversely affects the tourism industry in all the countries under study.

KEYWORDS:

• Uncertainty
• tourism
• economic growth
• terrorism
• time series
• structural break
• ARDL
• United Kingdom
• France
• Greece

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.

ORCID

Sudeshna Ghosh http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2026-1676