Analyzing Energy Export Patterns from the Commonwealth of Independent States to China: New Evidence from Gravity Trade Theory

Abstract

The issue of energy trade is crucial for both the Commonwealth of independent States (CIS) region as a top energy exporter and for China as the top energy importer in the world. This study tries to investigate and analyze energy trade patterns running from the CIS to China by applying the panel-gravity trade equation over the period from 2001–2017. The major results revealed that the gravity theory fits the data well. In addition, the findings of this study suggested that the estimated coefficients across all three panel estimators (fixed effect, random effect, and FMOLS) are very similar. Further, the empirical results demonstrated that an increase in GDP and income accelerates the Chinese energy imports from the CIS. Our findings supported the H-O theory, where the difference in income showed a positive influence on the China -CIS energy trade volume. I also discovered the positive impact of the openness level. However, the results indicated that the trade-distance nexus is negative for energy export volume running from the CIS to China.

Keywords:

• energy export
• gravity trade theory
• China
• the commonwealth of independent states region

Notes

Notes

1 I only considered the CIS members who export energy sources to China. Hence Georgia, Moldova, Armenia, and Tajikistan which did not export any energy commodities to China are not on our list.

2 The French Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales.

3 It is the average of 0.59%, 0.72%, 0.63%, 0.83%, 0.66%, 0.63%, 1.11%, 1.54%, and 0.92%.

4 It is the average of –0.73, –1.05 and –1.03.

5 It is the average of 0.11%, 0.06%, 0.17%, 0.10%, 0.18%, 0.05%, 0.18%, 0.20%, and 0.18%.

6 https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/WEOWORLD/SEQ/AS5/ADVEC/CIS/OEMDC