http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3824-329X
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ABSTRACT
This study examines the potential influence of foreign linkages on regime outcomes by comparing Myanmar and Thailand. Linkages with the West are supposed to facilitate democratization, whereas those with autocracies usually promote regime survival. This study focuses on Myanmar and Thailand’s linkages with the U.S. and China, which at first sight seem to demonstrate the hypothesized effects. Myanmar gradually liberalized while strengthening its Western linkages, whereas Thailand experienced democratic breakdown amid a shift in alignment from the U.S. to China. However, in-depth analysis suggests that the influence of foreign linkages on domestic political change was minimal and that the relationship may very well be endogenous. The findings of this study call for a more careful theorization and handling of the external factors in studies of regime change and highlight the importance of simultaneously analyzing democratic and autocratic linkages.
Acknowledgements
I would like to thank the editor and the anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments on the revision of this article. All remaining errors are my own.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.
ORCID
Mathew Y. H. Wong http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3824-329X
Notes
1 Levitsky and Way, Competitive Authoritarianism.
2 Vanderhill, Promoting Authoritarianism Abroad; Bader, “China, Autocratic Patron?”
3 Diamond, “Democracy in Decline.”
4 Bader et al., “Would Autocracies Promote Autocracy?”; Vanderhill, Promoting Authoritarianism Abroad; Bader, “China, Autocratic Patron?”; Tansey, Koehler and Schmotz, “Ties to the Rest.”
5 The military junta changed the name of the country from Burma to Myanmar in 1989.
6 Vanderhill, Promoting Authoritarianism Abroad; Borzel, “The Noble West.”
7 Bader et al., “Would Autocracies Promote Autocracy?”
8 Levitsky and Way, Competitive Authoritarianism.
9 Gleditsch and Ward, “Diffusion and the International Context.”
10 Levitsky and Way, Competitive Authoritarianism, 40.
11 Ibid., 43.
12 Ibid.
13 For example, Escriba-Folch and Wright, “Dealing with Tyranny.”
14 Escriba-Folch, “Foreign Direct Investment.”
15 Tansey et al., “Ties to the Rest.”
16 Levitsky and Way, Competitive Authoritarianism; Teorell, Determinants of Democratization; Coppedge, Democratization and Research Methods.
17 Except For example, Tansey et al., “Ties to the Rest.”
18 Teorell, Determinants of Democratization, 99; for a review, see Coppedge, Democratization and Research Methods.
19 Levitsky and Way, “Linkage Versus Leverage”; Levitsky and Way, Competitive Authoritarianism.
20 Bader et al., “Would Autocracies Promote Autocracy?”
21 Vanderhill, Promoting Authoritarianism Abroad; for a review, see Brownlee, “The Limited Reach.”
22 Ferdinand, “Westward Ho.”
23 Bader, “China, Autocratic Patron?”
24 Ibid.; Brownlee, “The Limited Reach.”
25 Chen and Kinzelbach, “Democracy Promotion and China.”
26 Diamond, “Democracy in Decline.”
27 Bader, “China, Autocratic Patron?”
28 Foot and Inboden, “China’s Influence on Asian States.”
29 Vanderhill, Promoting Authoritarianism Abroad; Borzel, “The Noble West.”
30 Bader et al., “Would Autocracies Promote Autocracy?”; Brownlee, “The Limited Reach.”
31 For example, Haacke, “The United States and Myanmar.”
32 Bader, “China, Autocratic Patron?”
33 Ferdinand, “Westward Ho.”
34 I would like to thank an anonymous reviewer for suggesting this point. See Kipgen, “Militarization of Politics” for a similar approach.
35 Gerring, Case Study Research.
36 Goh and Steinberg, “Myanmar’s Management of China’s Influence,” 59.
37 Gerring, Case Study Research.
38 Escriba-Folch and Wright, “Dealing with Tyranny”; Levitsky and Way, Competitive Authoritarianism.
39 For a review, see Kastner, “Analysing Chinese Influence.”
40 Kipgen, Democratisation of Myanmar, 142–4; Zin and Joseph, “The Opening in Burma.”
41 Egreteau, “Myanmar.”
42 Callahan, “The Generals Loosen Their Grip”; Jones, “Explaining Myanmar’s Regime Transition.”; however, see Zin and Joseph, “The Opening in Burma.”
43 Marshall et al., Polity IV.
44 Freedom House, Freedom in the World 2017.
45 Goh and Steinberg, “Myanmar’s Management of China’s Influence,” 57.
46 Zin and Joseph, “The Opening in Burma.”
47 Bader et al., “Would Autocracies Promote Autocracy?”; Goh and Steinberg, “Myanmar’s Management of China’s Influence.”
48 Yeophantong, “China’s Hydropower Expansion.”
49 Kyaw Yin Hlaing, “The State of the Pro-Democracy Movement.”
50 Goh and Steinberg, “Myanmar’s Management of China’s Influence.”
51 James, “Resources, Rent-Seeking, and Reform.”
52 Goh and Steinberg, “Myanmar’s Management of China’s Influence.”
53 There were also allegations (denied by China) that China provided support for the rebels. Bader et al., “Would Autocracies Promote Autocracy?”; Goh and Steinberg, “Myanmar’s Management of China’s Influence.”
54 Yeophantong, “China’s Hydropower Expansion”
55 Ibid., Goh and Steinberg, “Myanmar’s Management of China’s Influence.”
56 Chen and Kinzelbach, “Democracy Promotion and China.”
57 Goh and Steinberg, “Myanmar’s Management of China’s Influence.”
58 The White House, Fact Sheet.
59 United States Department of State. US Companies in Burma.
60 However, new sanctions were imposed by the Trump administration in 2018 in response to violence against the Rohingya people.
61 Callahan, “The Generals Loosen Their Grip.” The roadmap included the reconvening of the National Convention in 2004, the presentation of a constitutional draft to the assembly in 2007, and its adoption through a referendum in 2008.
62 Egreteau, “Myanmar.”
63 Ibid., 795.
64 Jones, “Explaining Myanmar’s Regime Transition.”
65 Kyaw Yin Hlaing, “The State of the Pro-Democracy Movement”; Callahan, “The Generals Loosen Their Grip”; Jones, “Explaining Myanmar’s Regime Transition.”
66 James, “Resources, Rent-Seeking, and Reform,” 445.
67 Goh and Steinberg, “Myanmar’s Management of China’s Influence.”
68 Kyaw Yin Hlaing, “The State of the Pro-Democracy Movement.”
69 Ibid.; James, “Resources, Rent-Seeking, and Reform.”
70 Barany, “Exits from Military Rule.”
71 Zin and Joseph, “The Opening in Burma.”
72 Haacke, “The United States and Myanmar.”
73 Chantasasawat, “Burgeoning Sino-Thai Relations”; Busbarat, “Thai-US Relations.”
74 Ibid.
75 Ibid.
76 James, “Resources, Rent-Seeking, and Reform.”
77 Ferrara, The Political Development of Modern Thailand, 183–4.
78 Busbarat, “Thai-US Relations.”
79 Ibid.; “The Real Lesson in Thailand’s Struggle with a China Rail Project.” The Diplomat, 21 June 2017.
80 “Thailand boosts military ties with China amid U.S. spat.” Reuters, 6 February 2015.
81 Busbarat, “Thai-US Relations.”
82 Ibid.
83 International Monetary Fund, “Direction of Trade Statistics.”
84 “Thailand Expanding Relations with China Amid Pivot to Other Nations.” VOA News, 27 December, 2016. https://www.voanews.com/a/thailand-expanding-relations-with-china-amid-pivot-to-other-nations/3652487.html.
85 Busbarat, “Thai-US Relations.”
86 “The Real Lesson in Thailand’s Struggle with a China Rail Project.” The Diplomat, 21 June 2017.
87 Ferrara, The Political Development of Modern Thailand.
88 Baker, “The 2014 Thai Coup.”
89 McCargo, “Network Monarchy and Legitimacy Crisis.”
90 Harris, “Who Governs?”
91 Case, “Electoral Authoritarianism.”
92 Ibid.
93 Ibid.; Ferrara, “Thailand.”
94 Ferrara, “Thailand.”
95 Jager, “Why Did Thailand’s Middle Class.”
96 Hewison, “Thailand.”
97 Ibid.; Ferrara, The Political Development of Modern Thailand.
98 Baker, “The 2014 Thai Coup.”
99 “Cobra Gold 2016 Starts with Lower U.S. Troop Totals, Emphasis on Non-Combat Missions.” U.S. Naval Institute News, 8 February 2016.
100 Non-aggregated trade figures (by exports/imports) and FDI data from other sources are presented in the Appendix.
101 Levitsky and Way, Competitive Authoritarianism; Vanderhill, Promoting Authoritarianism Abroad.
102 Cf., Baker, “The 2014 Thai Coup.”
103 A focus on the West in general would dilute the focus of the analysis, while EU’s role in the region is much more limited than that of the U.S. The U.S. and EU also had similar trade/investment links, as shown in the Appendix.
104 Brownlee, “The Limited Reach.”
105 Beeson and Gerard, “ASEAN, Regionalism and Democracy.”
106 As compared with the EU whose member states are virtually all democratic, the ASEAN has a much more varied mix of members. In 2014, the average Polity score of ASEAN was 0.22 (from −10 to +10).
107 Goh and Steinberg, “Myanmar’s Management of China’s Influence.”
108 Callahan, “The Generals Loosen Their Grip”; Jones, “Explaining Myanmar’s Regime Transition.”
109 Levitsky and Way, Competitive Authoritarianism, 51.
110 Ibid., 352.
111 Tansey et al., “Ties to the Rest”; Escriba-Folch, “Foreign Direct Investment.”
112 Brownlee, “The Limited Reach”; Borzel, “The Noble West.”
113 Chen and Kinzelbach, “Democracy Promotion and China;” Goh and Steinberg, “Myanmar’s Management of China’s Influence.”
114 Borzel, “The Noble West.”
115 Gerring, Case Study Research.
116 Kastner, “Analysing Chinese Influence.”
117 In particular, my analysis adopts the more deductive forms of process tracing, starting from theory and compares case evidence with hypotheses formulated by theoretical predictions.
118 Collier, “Understanding Process Tracing.”
119 Ibid.
120 James, “Resources, Rent-Seeking, and Reform.”
121 Barany, “Exits from Military Rule.”
122 Kipgen, “Militarization of Politics.”
123 Slater, Ordering Power, 271.
124 Callahan, “The Generals Loosen Their Grip.”
125 Kipgen, “Militarization of Politics.”
126 Cf., Kipgen, “Militarization of Politics”; Democratisation of Myanmar.
127 Slater, Ordering Power.
128 Ibid., 730; Callahan, “The Generals Loosen Their Grip.”
129 Levitsky and Way, Competitive Authoritarianism, 43.
130 Callahan, “The Generals Loosen Their Grip.”
131 Ferrara, The Political Development of Modern Thailand, 291.
Additional information
Notes on contributors
Mathew Y. H. Wong
Mathew Y. H. Wong is Assistant Professor at the Department of Social Sciences at the Education University of Hong Kong. His research interests include income inequality, democracy, and politics of Asia.