https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6272-8481
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ABSTRACT
In the Anthropocene, practicing diplomacy with a renewed emphasis on strategy is critical. However, the implications of the planet’s new geological reality – of which climate change is the primary indicator – have not been internalised into policy and practice thus far at both the domestic and international levels. Brazil is no exception. In this article, the strategic diplomacy framework is applied to the Brazilian case as a policy proposal and diagnostic tool to (a) identify the country’s strategic climate interest, (b) propose a diplomatic strategy capable of addressing the gravity of the climate crisis, and (c) analyse the factors blocking the development of a national agenda and policy consistent with a climate security scenario. Despite Brazil’s vast natural capital, powerful interests in the agribusiness and energy sectors, lack of vision among the ruling elites, and a poorly educated population in a society still marked by high levels of poverty and income inequality have precluded the country from developing a leading role in the global climate arena.
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No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).
Notes
1 Planetary boundaries – particularly climate change and biosphere integrity – are tightly interconnected. Consequently, ensuring climate security requires considering the dense network of interactions between them.
2 Data from the Brazilian Greenhouse Gas Emission Estimate System (SEEG): http://plataforma.seeg.eco.br/total_emission.
3 Data from the Brazilian State Institute for Space Research (INPE): http://www.obt.inpe.br/OBT/assuntos/programas/amazonia/prodes.
4 The market reforms of the Cardoso administration created the conditions for a capitalist revolution in agriculture in Brazil. As economic stabilization occurred, land prices fell and the business environment improved. The wide availability of agricultural lands and biotechnological improvements developed by the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (Embrapa) further set the stage for the rise of the agribusiness sector (Correa & Schmidt, Citation2014).
5 Data from INPE: http://www.obt.inpe.br/OBT/assuntos/programas/amazonia/prodes.
6 Data from SEEG: http://plataforma.seeg.eco.br/total_emission.
7 Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation and the role of conservation, sustainable development of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks in developing countries, a mechanism that emerged in 2005 during COP11.
8 Data from SEEG: http://plataforma.seeg.eco.br/total_emission.
9 Data from INPE: http://www.obt.inpe.br/OBT/assuntos/programas/amazonia/prodes.
10 Data from the Brazilian Agribusiness Observatory: https://deolhonosruralistas.com.br/2017/10/26/55-dos-novos-votos-favor-de-temer-sairam-da-frente-parlamentar-da-agropecuaria/.
11 Interview conducted by the authors with a Brazilian environmental NGO member who attended COP24, 17 Sep. 2019.
12 Datafolha survey: http://media.folha.uol.com.br/datafolha/2018/10/22/86573009cfde5a6de64bd00cc1bd94a3.pdf.
13 CNI/IBOPE survey: http://www.portaldaindustria.com.br/estatisticas/rsb-41-problemas-e-prioridades-para-2018/.
14 Ideia Big Data survey: https://epoca.globo.com/eleitores-evangelicos-de-bolsonaro-25-consideram-governo-ruim-ou-pessimo-23767126.
15 An olavist is a person who believes in olavism – a set of ideas compiled by former Brazilian astrologer and self-proclaimed philosopher Olavo de Carvalho. Olavists demonise the political left, believe in conspiracy theories (e.g., the climate change agenda is a Chinese invention to undermine the power of the West), and distort historical and scientific facts. The ministers of foreign affairs and education in Bolsonaro’s government were recommended by Olavo de Carvalho itself.
16 See, for instance, https://www.metapoliticabrasil.com/blog/sequestrar-e-perverter and https://exame.abril.com.br/blog/david-cohen/a-diplomacia-do-incompreensivel/.
17 Decree no. 9.741/2019: http://www.planalto.gov.br/ccivil_03/_ato2019-2022/2019/decreto/D9741.htm.
18 Decree no. 9.760/2019: http://www.planalto.gov.br/ccivil_03/_ato2019-2022/2019/decreto/D9760.htm.
19 Decree no. 9.806/2019: http://www.planalto.gov.br/ccivil_03/_Ato2019-2022/2019/Decreto/D9806.htm.
20 See, for instance, https://oglobo.globo.com/sociedade/bolsonaro-diz-que-reservas-indigenas-buscam-inviabilizar-brasil-23908043 and https://www.bbc.com/portuguese/brasil-49363387.
21 See, for instance, https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/ambiente/2018/12/bolsonaro-diz-que-licenca-ambiental-atrapalha-obras-e-que-vai-acabar-com-capricho-de-fiscais.shtml.
22 See, for instance, https://noticias.uol.com.br/meio-ambiente/ultimas-noticias/redacao/2019/09/09/mentalidade-sindicalista-arrebentou-o-brasil-diz-salles-sobre-ibama.htm and https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/ambiente/2019/04/bolsonaro-desautoriza-operacao-em-andamento-do-ibama-contra-madeira-ilegal-em-ro.shtml.
23 Salles’ declarations at the Brazilian Senate in March 2019: https://www12.senado.leg.br/radio/1/noticia/prioridade-do-ministerio-do-meio-ambiente-e-gestao-ambiental-urbana-afirma-ministro.
26 Data from INPE’S DETER System: http://terrabrasilis.dpi.inpe.br/app/dashboard/alerts/legal/amazon/aggregated/.
27 Data from Imazon: https://imazon.org.br/publicacoes/boletim-do-desmatamento-da-amazonia-agosto-2019/.
28 Interview with Ricardo Salles, BBC Brasil, 15 August 2019: https://www.bbc.com/portuguese/brasil-49363387; see also https://oglobo.globo.com/sociedade/estao-acabando-com-brasil-diz-bolsonaro-sobre-restricoes-da-preservacao-ambiental-23881657
29 Tereza Cristina’s declarations at the Senate, 27 February 2019: https://www12.senado.leg.br/noticias/materias/2019/02/27/tereza-cristina-defende-integracao-de-terras-indigenas-ao-agronegocio.
30 See, for instance, the public declarations of General Augusto Heleno, chief minister of the presidency’s institutional security office: https://www.dn.pt/mundo/interior/-e-bobagem-dizer-que-a-amazonia-e-patrimonio-da-humanidade-diz-ministro-brasileiro--11277119.html.
31 French President Emmanuel Macron declared the Amazon fires an ‘international crisis’ and urged G7 action on the problem.
32 Public statement from Jair Bolsonaro when leaving the Palace of Planalto, 21 August 2019: https://exame.abril.com.br/brasil/sem-provas-bolsonaro-diz-que-ongs-podem-estar-por-tras-de-queimadas/.
33 Interview with Ricardo Salles, Estadão, 24 August 2019: https://sustentabilidade.estadao.com.br/noticias/geral,essa-historia-de-que-a-amazonia-pertence-a-humanidade-e-bobagem-diz-ricardo-salles,70002980379.
36 Jair Bolsonaro’s speech to the United Nations General Assembly, 24 September 2019: https://www.bbc.com/portuguese/internacional-49808632.
37 See, for instance, the public declarations of Onyx Lorenzoni, chief minister of the Civil House: https://www.jornaldocomercio.com/_conteudo/politica/2019/08/699780-em-porto-alegre-onyx-atribui-repercussao-internacional-a-cobica-por-amazonia.html.
38 Jair Bolsonaro’s speech to the United Nations General Assembly, 24 September 2019: https://www.bbc.com/portuguese/internacional-49808632.
39 Ernesto Araújo on Twitter: https://twitter.com/ernestofaraujo/status/1164714467109822464.
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Notes on contributors
Joana Castro Pereira
Joana Castro Pereira is a researcher at the Portuguese Institute of International Relations (IPRI), Universidade Nova de Lisboa. Her research focuses on the governance of the Amazon rainforest, Latin American climate politics and policies, and the political challenges of the Anthropocene. She is co-author of the book Climate Change and Biodiversity Governance in the Amazon: At the Edge of Ecological Collapse? (Routledge, 2022), co-editor of the volume Non-Human Nature in World Politics: Theory and Practice (Springer, 2020), and has published in journals such as Global Policy, Global Environmental Politics and Journal of Latin American Studies.
Eduardo Viola
Eduardo Viola is a full professor at the Institute of International Relations (IREL), Universidade de Brasília, and a senior research fellow at the Institute of Advanced Studies (IEA), Universidade de São Paulo. He has published several books and more than eighty articles in journals on issues related to globalization and governance, democracy and democratization in South America, Brazilian environmental policy, and the global politics of climate change.