First-Order Seismic Loss Assessment at Urban Scale: A Case Study of Skopje, North Macedonia

ABSTRACT

Relatively simple method for seismic loss assessment is presented based on probabilistic hazard, event scenarios and local building inventory. EMS98-dependent vulnerability model is transformed to continuous fragility functions correlating damage probability to peak ground acceleration. The proposed method illustrated over 59,950 inventoried buildings and evaluated with replacement cost of $25.5B. For a repeat of the M6.1 1963 earthquake, simulations predict immediate losses of about $6.8B and 1,908 red-tagged buildings, compared to about $5B and 15,800 red-tagged building at the time. Average losses from probabilistic scenarios range from $1.6B (return period of 100y) to $17.8B (10,000y).

KEYWORDS:

• Seismic Hazard
• Building Inventory
• Fragility Function
• Economic Loss
• Damage State

Acknowledgments

This study was conducted as part of the ongoing Program for Risk, Disaster Management and Strategic Planning of the Institute of Earthquake Engineering IZIIS Skopje and Natural Resources Canada’s Public Safety Geoscience Program. The authors wish to thank Dr. Michel Parent with the Geological Survey of Canada for reviewing the first draft of the paper and the many constructive comments and suggestions. We would also like to thank the anonymous reviewers for their helpful and constructive suggestions that greatly contributed to improving the final version of our manuscript.