How information propagation in hybrid spaces affects decision-making: using ABM to simulate Covid-19 vaccine uptake

Abstract

The notion of physical space has long been central in geographical theories. However, the widespread adoption of information and communication technologies (ICTs) has freed human dynamics from purely physical to also relational and cyber spaces. While researchers increasingly recognize such shifts, rarely have studies examined how the information propagates in these hybrid spaces (ie physical, relational, and cyber). By exploring the vaccine opinion dynamics through agent-based modeling, this study is the first that combines all hybrid spaces and explores their distinct impacts on human dynamics from an individual’s perspective. Our model captures the temporal dynamics of vaccination progress with small errors (MAE = 2.45). Our results suggest that all hybrid spaces are indispensable in vaccination decision-making. However, in our model, most of the agents tend to give more emphasis to the information that is spread in the physical instead of other hybrid spaces. Our study not only sheds light on human dynamics research but also offers a new lens to identifying vaccinated individuals which has long been challenging in disease-spread models. Furthermore, our study also provides responses for practitioners to develop vaccination outreach policies and plan for future outbreaks.

KEY POLICY HIGHLIGHTS

• Our model suggests that physical space weighs more than relational and cyber spaces in individuals’ vaccination decision-making. This implies that health authorities should prioritize place-based vaccination outreach plans in addition to online campaigns.

• In our model, different age groups demonstrate various preferences for hybrid spaces to receive vaccine-related information. Therefore, policymakers could tailor their vaccine outreach policies to match the preferred information sources of different age groups.

• Our results suggest that while adults (ages 18–64) care more about physical space, teenagers (ages 12–17) give more attention to cyber space, and senior people (65+) prefer relational space.

Keywords:

• Agent-based modeling
• hybrid space
• opinion dynamics
• Covid-19
• vaccination

Data and codes availability statement

A more comprehensive Overview, Design Concepts, and Details Protocol (ODD) along with the source code, data needed to run the model, and simulation output at CoMSES Net https://www.comses.net/codebases/4b15c3d7-2819-4c1f-9b82-4a63feb0724c/releases/1.0.0/. Those supplementary materials are provided for the purpose of model reproducibility and extension if so desired by the reader.

Disclosure statement

The authors declare no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and publication of this article. This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Fuzhen Yin

Fuzhen Yin is a PhD candidate in the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at the University at Buffalo. She contributed to the conceptualization, formal analysis, investigation, methodology, writing – original draft, writing – review and editing.

Andrew Crooks

Andrew Crooks is a Professor in the Department of Geography at the University at Buffalo. He contributed to the conceptualization, investigation, methodology, writing – review and editing.

Li Yin

Li Yin is an Associate Professor in the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at the University at Buffalo. She contributed to the conceptualization and investigation.